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Jailer’s Paradox

Jailer’s Paradox. Cousin of the Monty Hall Paradox. Jailer’s Paradox. If the Monty Hall paradox did not make intuitive sense, perhaps we can look at it from a different perspective. This paradox is similar to Monty Hall, but perhaps more intuitive. Jailer’s Paradox.

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Jailer’s Paradox

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  1. Jailer’s Paradox Cousin of the Monty Hall Paradox

  2. Jailer’s Paradox • If the Monty Hall paradox did not make intuitive sense, perhaps we can look at it from a different perspective. • This paradox is similar to Monty Hall, but perhaps more intuitive.

  3. Jailer’s Paradox • Instead of 3 doors, we have 3 prison cells. • You are one of 3 prisoners, 2 of whom will be set free, and 1 will be put to death. • Your are writing a letter to be delivered to your family in case you are executed, and you ask the jailer which of the other 2 prisoners could definitely take your letter. • Would the jailer increase your odds of execution by telling you who to address the letter to?

  4. Jailer’s Paradox • As a prisoner, should you be more worried after the jailer tells you the name?

  5. Scenario Prisoner’s fate Jailer says this prisoner will go free Prob- ability of this scenario Adam Bill Carl 1a Ω Ш Ш Bill 1/6 1b Ω Ш Ш Carl 1/6 2 Ш Ω Ш Carl 1/3 3 Ш Ш Ω Bill 1/3 Jailer’s Paradox - Solution • Here is the solution from “Randomness”, by Deborah Bennett

  6. Simpson’s Paradox • If the acceptance rate of women is higher than the rate of men in every department in the college, how can the women’s rate be lower than the men’s for the college as a whole? • From “Randomness”, by Deborah Bennett

  7. Simpson’s Paradox From “Randomness”, by Deborah Bennett

  8. Simpson’s Paradox – More Slanted

  9. Simpson’s Paradox - Revisited Adapted from “Randomness”, by Deborah Bennett

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