An Economic Valuation of Large -scale rangeland restoration through the HIMA system within the Zarqa river basin in J

1. An Economic Valuation of Large-scale rangeland restoration through the HIMA system within the Zarqa river basin in Jordan. Under the ELD initiative Vanja Westerberg

2. Rationale • Why do an economic valuation of the HIMA system? • We know there is a case for change… • But we need to ground that case on the basis of rigerous assessments. • Translated into a terminology that everybody (or most people) can relate to. $

3. An economic valuation ecosystem goods and services associated with HIMA restoration • We study the value of enhanced: • Rangeland productivity • Infiltration of rainfall to groundwater aquifers • Stabilisation and trapping of sediments • Carbon sequestration and storage

4. Step 1: Where? • Define the location • Bani Hashem Hima • Within the larger Zarqa river basin.

5. WHERE: ZARQA RIVER BASIN • MOE MAP

6. Step 2: Define the baseline scenario • What would happen over a 25 year time horizon if there is no changes in current rangeland practices? • Rangeland productivity rapidly declining – halving of edible dry matter per ha in 20 years (MoA 2009) • High livestock numbers compared to carrying capacity of land (as long as feed subsidy persist)

8. Step 3: Define the future scenario • …Against which the economic valuation is undertaken LARGE-SCALE HIMA RESTORATION

9. Step 3: Define the future scenario

10. In TOTAL • 109’093 ha suitable for HIMA restoration • Out of a total 359’675.2 ha within the Zarqa river basin

11. Value of enhanced rangeland productivity • We use the experience from BaniHashem

12. THE BENEFITS OF HIMA RESTORATION ??

13. RANGELAND PRODUCTIVITY

14. Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks • We have a Hima management principle • We know the plant biomass after 2.5 years of protection (excellent study by NCARE researcher for IUCN) • We know the approximate starting value for plant biomass per ha. • We know the maximum plant biomass per ha for the Baadiaecosystem ~ 500 kg/ha (100-200 mm of rain)

15. Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks • The Noy-Meir sigmoid curve has been shown to accurately reflect pasture growth in a managed grazing setting (Cacho 1993; Cooper and Huffaker 1997; Ritten 2013)

16. Value of enhanced rangeland productivity – building blocks • We can predict biomass growth within a HIMA year-by-year.

17. BIOMASS ACCUMULATION AND WITHIN A HIMA SYSTEM

18. BIOMASS GRAZED IN HIMA VERSUS PURE OPEN ACCESS HIMA

19. Value of increased forage availability? • 70-90% of all forage is purchased Any additional natural rangeland forage will replace the need to purchase forage.

20. Predicted world market price for barley feed

22. Value of enhanced rangeland productivity • Value of additional forage from HIMA restoration (in terms of barley equivalent) over 25 years 16.8 million JOD • 61 800 JOD per 400 ha HIMA

23. The Premium Value of Natural Forage • Natural forage is praised for its properties: • Better quality of milk • Better health of livestock • We cannot purchase « natural grazing » on the market, nor « natural forage » • We therefore need to construct a Hypothetical Market to elicit values for these ecosystem services

24. Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the valueof rangeland restoration

25. Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the valueof rangeland restoration ALL FOOD FROM NATURAL PASTURES 105 JD/month

26. Using a Choice Experiment to elicit the valueof rangeland restoration • Households are willing to pay a price premium of = 61.8 JD/ton on natural forage over ‘concentrated feed’. • True economic value of natural forage over a 25 year time horizon • 20.5 million JOD

27. Value of enhanced aquifer recharge ? • The Zarqa river basin isconsidered as one of the major productive ground water basins in Jordan. • Important to analyse the contribution of HIMA systems to ground water recharge. • We use: • Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT model)

29. Value of enhanced aquifer recharge and water yield? Hima restoration scenarion Baseline/ Open access 2013 2015 2020 2030

30. Value of shallow aquifer recharge 96 000 m3 /year

31. Value of shallow aquifer recharge • We look at existing prices in the market to approximate the value of water • We look at what pastoralists are Willing To Pay for water for their flocks ~ 2 JD / m3

32. Value of shallow ground-water infiltration • Present value of water infiltration over a 25 year time horizon. • 2.8 million JOD • LowerboundestimateIncreasingscarcity of water, the value goes up

33. Value of sediment stabilisation • Sediments reduce water storage capacity of dams

34. KING TALAL DAM

35. Reduced sedimentation from HIMA restoration • 7.6 Million CubicMeter (MCM)over 25 yearsof sediments aretrapped and not deposited in King Talal Dam as a result of HIMA restoration

36. Value of sediment stabilisation ……Demand for water will not decline. • Anylost water storagecapacitywill have to bereplaced !

37. Value of sediment stabilisation = 9.2 million JOD Avoided Dam Construction Cost of replacing7.6 MCM of water storage:

38. Value of Carbon Sequestration • FOR Soil Organic Carbon we use estimates provided by the: • UNEP project Global Environmental Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) system • Al-Amadat et al., (2007) • Above ground carbonsequestration is calculated using IPCC tier 1 guidelines.

39. Predicted carbon sequestration in HIMA versus open-access rangelands Tons/ha

40. Value? Socialcost of carbon JD/ha The SCC is an estimate of the economic damages associated with a one ton increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Damages include, decreased agricultural productivity, damage from rising sea levels and harm to human health related to climate change

41. Avoided social cost of carbon of Large Scale Hima restoration Present Value of Carbon sequestration from large-scale HIMA restoration over a 25 year time horizon = 32.7 million JOD

42. Many benefits, but what about: THE COSTS OF HIMA RESTORATION ??

43. Tentative implementation costs and surveilliance costs: Implementationcosts: • Community workshops, participatoryprocesses, biomassstudies, observation tower~ 1 000 JD – 2 000 JD Management costs: • Biomass and stockingdensitystudies~ 800 JD / year for 5-10 years • Surveilliance by MoA~ 5 000 JD / year • OR: Surveilliance by community~ 8 00 JD / year

44. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS OUTCOME?

45. NPV of Hima management system as today (in BaniHashem) over 25 years for 100,000 ha of HIMA

46. NPV of Hima system through serious community management over 25 years for 100,000 ha of Hima

47. NPV of Hima system through 100% community management and surveillance

48. LESSONS AND CONCLUSIONS

49. Lessons • Costs associated with HIMA implementation and management will be minimised if management/land rights are delegated to the community • In line with the revised Jordanian rangeland strategy

50. Other lessons • Livestock numbers within the Zarqa River Basin are currently too high for 100% Hima restoration • Raises a question about fodder subsidies…