VULNERABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND OTHER LAND COVER TYPES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES

1. VULNERABILITY OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS AND OTHER LAND COVER TYPES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE PHILIPPINES R.D. Lasco, F.B. Pulhin, R.V.O. Cruz, J.M. Pulhin and S.S.N. Roy University of the Philippines at Los Banos

2. Outline of Presentation • Introduction • Objectives • Methods • Results and discussion • Adaptation strategy and options • Watershed scale impacts and adaptation • Conclusions

3. Introduction • World’s forests contain majority of the world’s biodiversity resources • Forests are highly dependent on climate • Philippine forests have high floral and faunal diversity • Harbor 13,000 species or 5% of world’s total • Effects of climate change have not been studied

4. Objectives • Determine the potential vegetative cover of the Philippines without human intervention using the Holdridge Life Zones; • Simulate changes in present vegetative cover as a result of climate change using GIS and the Holdridge Life Zones; • Assess the vulnerability of forest and biodiversity resources in the Philippines to climate change; and • Identify and assess potential adaptation measures to mitigate the impacts of climate change.

5. 1. Scope Project Design 2. Assess Current Vulnerability Engage Stake-holders Increase Adaptive Capacity 3. Characterize Future Climate-related Risks 4. Develop Adaptation Strategy 5.Continue Adaptation Process UNDP Adaptation Policy Framework

6. 0.125 0.25 125 LATITUDINAL REGIONS ALTITUDINAL BELTS 0.50 250 Average Total Annual Precipitation in Millimeters Potential Evapotranspiration Ratio 1.00 500 POLAR NIVAL 1.5C Dry Tundra Moist Tundra Wet Tundra Rain Tundra 2.00 1000 SUBPOLAR ALPINE 3C Dessert Dry Scrub Moist Forest (Puna) Wet Forest (Paramo) Rain Forest (Rain Paramo) 4.00 BOREAL 2000 SUBALPINE 6C Dessert Dessert Scrub Steppe Moist Forest Wet Forest Rain Forest 4000 8.00 COOL TEMPERATE MONTANE 12C Dessert Scrub Dessert Scrub Dessert Dessert Dry Forest Dry Forest Rain Forest Rain Forest Thorn Steppe Thorn Woodland Moist Forest Moist Forest Wet Forest Wet Forest 16.00 8000 WARM TEMPERATE SUBTROPICAL LOWER MONTANE PREMONTANE FROST LINE OR CRITICAL TEMPERATURE LINE 24C Dessert Dessert Scrub Thorn Woodland Very Dry Forest Dry Forest Moist Forest Wet Forest Rain Forest TROPICAL Methods Mean Annual Biotemperature The Holdridge System of vegetative cover classification

7. Precipitation= annual rainfall (mm) • Biotemperature: • Mean annual biotemperature (MAB)= Σ (0 < T < 30)/ 12 months or • Mean annual biotemperature= Σ (0 < T < 30)/365 days • Moisture: • Mean Annual PET= (MAB) (58.93) • PET Ratio= Mean Annual PET/Mean Annual P

8. Table 1 Synthetic climate change scenarios

9. ArcGIS 8.1 was used to process the maps needed for the Holdridge Life Zone. • Average rainfall (1961-1990) ranges from 1000mm – 4000mm. • A Thiessen map was created from the 55 stations all over the Philippines. • Average temperature (1949-2002) ranges from 19.3C – 28.2C. • Land use map is based on 1993 map prepared by the Presidential Task Force on Water Resources Development and Management. • 6 million hectares of forests left (excluding brushland and man-made forest)

10. Forest vegetation types in the Philippines: • closed canopy, mature trees covering > 50% • open canopy, mature trees covering < 50% • mossy forest • pine forest • Potential and actual Holdridge Life Zone determined • Impacts of climate change analyzed

11. Results and Discussion

12. Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Legend No Classification Dry Forest Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Figure 2a: Potential Holdridge life zones in the Philippines without human influence.

13. Comparison of potential and actual (based on 1993 data) life zones in the Philippines

14. Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Life Zone - mean precip - mean temp Legend No Classification Dry Forest Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest

15. Life Zone (1a) - precip (50% ) - temp (1C ) Life Zone (1b) - precip (50% ) - temp (1.5C ) Life Zone (1c) - precip (50% ) - temp (2C ) Legend No Classification Dry Forest Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 1 (50% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase.

16. Life Zone (2a) - precip (100% ) - temp (1C ) Life Zone (2b) - precip (100% ) - temp (1.5C ) Life Zone (2c) - precip (100% ) - temp (2C ) Legend No Classification Dry Forest Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest Holdridge life zones in the Philippines under Scenario 2 (100% increase in rainfall) and at three levels of temperature increase.

17. Life Zone (3a) - precip (200% ) - temp (1C ) Life Zone (3b) - precip (200% ) - temp (1.5C ) Life Zone (3c) - precip (200% ) - temp (2C ) Legend No Classification Dry Forest Moist Forest Rain Forest Wet Forest

18. Scenario 1

19. Scenario 2

20. Scenario 3

21. Adaptation Strategy and Options • little consideration of an overall climate change adaptation strategy and its various options for Philippine forest ecosystems. • 1999 Philippines Initial National Communication contains adaptation options for watershed management that partly apply to forest ecosystems • There are many laws and polices governing the use and conservation of forest resources in the Philippines

22. the government has been actively pursuing several initiatives in spite of its limited resources. • Conservation of remaining forests in NIPAS sites and watershed areas. • Reforestation and rehabilitation of barren upland areas through tree planting and agroforestry. • Community-based forestry activities such as community organizing and development.

23. Climate change is hardly being considered at all in the planning process of forest resources. • Its more urgent concern is to save the remaining forests from human exploitation which is the more imminent threat.

24. Philippine forests in general are not in danger of disappearing with climate change. • certain forest types especially the dry forest types are highly vulnerable and could be replaced by other types of forests. • an overall adaptation strategy should probably focus on identifying which forest areas are more at risk and which species are unique in these areas. • Specific adaptation options could include helping vulnerable species migrate, assisting local communities shift from forest products from forests at risk, etc.

25. Watershed Scale: Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation • Multi-stakeholder workshop • Farmers, NGOs, DENR, LGUs

27. GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS

29. TREE PLANTATIONS

31. NATURAL FORESTS

33. UPLAND FARMS

35. LOWLAND FARMS

36. Thank you!!!