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Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy

Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy. Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World Bank Sunday 8 March 2009. Agenda. Global trends Market competition Private sector participation Independent regulation MegaTrend 1: Convergence

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Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy

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  1. Module 4: Understanding Recent Trends in ICT Policy Dr Tim Kelly, Lead ICT Policy Specialist, infoDev/World BankSunday 8 March 2009

  2. Agenda • Global trends • Market competition • Private sector participation • Independent regulation • MegaTrend 1: Convergence • MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless • MegaTrend 3: From narrowband to broadband • Groupwork brainstorming exercise: • What skills and competences might MCIT-IC require in five years time?

  3. Global Trends: Market competition Competition status by region, 2008 Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

  4. Global Trends: Market competition Competition status by service, 2008 Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

  5. Factors driving competition • It works • Strong demonstration effect of competitive market structures • It is mandated • Regional (e.g., EU) and Global (e.g., WTO) moves towards competitive market rules • Facilitated by technology • Many new competitive niches (e.g., VoIP, WiMAX, ISPs) • New techniques for spectrum efficiency and sharing • Intermodal competition • Incumbent PTO, cable TV, Internet and spectrum-based services are main platforms • Customers demand it • Large users, especially in the financial sector, demand more choice and lower costs Countries allowing VoIP competition Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

  6. Private sector participation Share of privately-owned incumbents, By country (1991-2008) and by region (2008) Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

  7. Independent regulation Number of independent regulators, In total (1990-2008) and by region (2008) Source: ITU World Telecom Regulatory Database.

  8. MegaTrend 1: Convergence A typology of convergence Source: World Bank (forthcoming) “Information and Communication for Development Report 2009”

  9. Examples of convergence • Service convergence • Triple Play, Service bundling • eg FIOS in USA offers TV, high-speed internet and voice services over an IP platform • Network convergence • Next Generation Networks (NGN) • eg KPTV in the Netherlands is migrating away from separate mobile and fixed networks onto a single NGN • Corporate convergence • Mergers, acquisitions, new service development • eg France Telecom has acquired Orange and rebranded its own mobile service and Wanadoo broadband under the Orange brand • Regulatory convergence • eg, OFCOM created in UK from five separate agencies NTT: Shift from narrowband to broadband Source: NTT Japan, cited in ITU Trends in Telecom Reform 2008.

  10. MegaTrend 2: From fixed to wireless Number of users/subscribers, by service, 1995-2007 (in billions) Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database.

  11. Policy implications of shift to mobile • Change in definition of universal service • Universal service becomes possible, as well as universal access • But operation of universal service funds may need review • Spectrum becomes key platform for future growth • Can available spectrum meet demand? • Embracing market mechanisms for spectrum allocation • Changing definitions of market dominance • To what extent are fixed and mobile services substitutable? • Will broadband internet be provided on a fixed or mobile platform? (or both) Mobile overtaking fixed in Egypt (per 100 inhabitants) Source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators Database, MCIT-IC

  12. MegaTrends 3: From narrow to broadband Number and type of Internet subscribers worldwide, millions, % Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and World Bank estimates

  13. From narrow to broadband in Egypt Number and type of Internet subscribers Egypt, millions, % Source: ITU World Telecom Indicators Database, and MCIT-IC

  14. Group Work Exercise: Brainstorming • Based on your understanding of the policy trends shaping the global and national ICT policy environments over the next five years: • What are the likely future competences and skills that would be required in MCIT-IC to help prepare for the next five years? • In the area of statistics and indicators? • In the requirement to provide policy guidance and advice? • In serving the industry and people of Egypt? • How can MCIT-IC prepare itself for these challenges? • Do these skills and competences already exist in-house? • Can they be developed from among the existing staff? • What new staff profiles might be needed?

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