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TSS Report on TEPPC, RS and WRS1.1 Marv Landauer August 24-26, 2011

TSS Report on TEPPC, RS and WRS1.1 Marv Landauer August 24-26, 2011. TEPPC Report. TEPPC Study Process. Activities 2029 Study Report approved in 2010 2019 and 2020 Study Reports approved t his year Ten Year Plan up for Board approval in September, then to DOE

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TSS Report on TEPPC, RS and WRS1.1 Marv Landauer August 24-26, 2011

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  1. TSS Report on TEPPC, RS and WRS1.1 Marv Landauer August 24-26, 2011

  2. TEPPC Report

  3. TEPPC Study Process Activities • 2029 Study Report approved in 2010 • 2019 and 2020 Study Reports approved this year • Ten Year Plan up for Board approval in September, then to DOE • Board version posted this week • Twenty year plan due in 2013 • Preparations being made to implement 2011 Study Plan

  4. Ten Year Plan Assumptions • Models depict expected 10 year future (2019 and 2020 studies) • RPS goals will be met • Foundational Transmission Projects will be built • Thermal generation efficiency information is from publically available information • Most required new generation was met by planned projects, some generic generation is added to fill the gap (highest capacity factor sites available)

  5. Ten Year Plan Assumptions • Forecast gas prices are used for all generation plus delivery charge (Henry Hub price was $7.28/MMBtuin 2010 dollars) • Load shape and hydro output based on actual 2006 operation • Wind and solar availability based on climatological data for 2006

  6. Ten Year Plan Assumptions • 121,000 GWh load added in WI • 900,000 GWh today in WI • Roughly 1% annual growth • 60% of growth is in CA, AB, CO and AZ • 54 GW generation added in 2020 • 210 GW existing generation capacity today • New generation: • 18 GW wind • 13 GW solar • 4 GW other renewables • 19 GW thermal • Results in 17% renewables WECC-wide in 2020

  7. Significant Generation Assumptions • 75% of CA RPS goals are met in state • 15,000 MW in CA is mostly solar and wind • CA Once-Through-Cooling (OTC) replacements • 8,000 MW of more efficient thermal generation added to replace 13,000 MW of old units • Other renewable additions – mostly wind • 6,000 MW in OR and WA • 600 MW in MT • 1200 MW in WY • 1400 MW in BC • Centralia and Hermiston still operating

  8. WECC RTEP Process Types of studies run • High/low gas price (+75%, -25%) • High/low hydro conditions • Carbon emissions, carbon adders • High/low load growth • High DSM/EE • Numerous transmission projects • Alternative regional resource development • High renewable development (MT and WY)

  9. Prod/Cost Study Issues ProMod Modeling Limitations • DC lines do not load as high as historical • Excess cycling of some generation • Dump Generation • Path loadings near limit • Limited Benchmarking with actual operation

  10. Prod/Cost Methodology

  11. WECC RTEP Process Ten Year Plan won’t include: • Selection of preferred projects to build • Cost allocation of projects • Quantification of impacts to specific ratepayers • Permitting/siting of projects

  12. WECC RTEP Process Study Conclusions in Ten Year Plan • Montana-NW Congestion • Pacific Intertie Congestion (COI and PDCI) • Consider expansion of transmission accessing renewable • Some remote resources appear to be cost effective • Need to study operational aspects of variable resources • Regional planning and cooperation • Consider environmental/cultural considerations next cycle • Consider water resource impacts in next cycle • Identify and fix caps in planning processes next cycle

  13. 2011 TEPPC Study Program • 2011 Study Program has been approved • For shorter term studies (ten years or less): • Developing 2010 benchmark base case • Developing 2022 common base case • Base cases planned to be ready in November • Case runs scheduled for the fall and winter

  14. High Priority 10-Year Study Cases

  15. Medium Priority 10-Year Study Cases 22

  16. Requests for Modeling Enhancements 23

  17. Timeline Extract from RTEP Project Timeline 2012

  18. TEPPC/TSS Coordination • TEPPC has uncovered system conditions with high wind penetration from Prod/Cost runs that merit study • Wind patterns, high transfers, reduced load, etc. • WECCs has promised DOE high level reliability analysis of these future plans • Initial steady state analysis attempted this year thru contactor by extracting power flow from prod/cost runs was mostly unsuccessful

  19. TEPPC/TSS Coordination • To find out if RPS goals are feasible, reliability studies of high wind penetration needed (steady state and transient studies, balancing requirements, etc.) • Does not appear these issues are getting sufficient attention • Is anyone looking at this? • If not, where/how should it be done? • TSS is logical home - expertise

  20. TEPPC/TSS Coordination • How can we combine load/generation conditions from ProMod and power flow/stability models for reliability analysis? • Can load/generation be extracted from ProMod and inserted into TSS case? • Can power flow extraction from ProMod be improved? • Can BCCS help in the long term? • Should joint TSS/TEPPC Task Force be created to delve into this issue?

  21. TEPPC/TSS Coordination • TEPPC has requested a ten-year case with high renewables and associated transmission in 2012 Study Program • Needed for future TEPPC study program • Integrating transmission needed with renewables • Could be used for reliability studies • Looks like it matches the 2023HS1 • How will this case be developed?

  22. Reliability Subcommittee Report

  23. August RS Meeting • Examination of Annual TRD outage data (5th year) • Development of SAR to align WECC Planning Criteria with new NERC TPL-001 Standard • Old NERC to new NERC • Old WECC Table W-1 (A, B, C, D) to P0 – P9 • Old NERC standard used “elements lost”, new NERC standard uses “initiating events” • Question: Will timing of composite load model/voltage dip requirements fit with this mapping? Should it remain a criterion?

  24. August RS Meeting • Reliability Metrics Work Group at NERC • New WECC Reliability Criteria Work Group under RPIC task: • Inventory WECC criteria • Determine whether to keep criteria or move to standard or guideline. • If there is insufficient criteria adherence => standard • Draft recommendation to RPIC in March 2012

  25. WRS1.1 Adjacent Circuit Criteria

  26. Adjacent Circuit Criteria: WRS1 and WRS1.1 • Drafting Team has developed consensus • Another draft is being circulated now with comments due September 6. • Goal is to bring proposed revised criteria to PCC in October • No-cascading idea did not have enough support to move it forward and was dropped. Staying with Level C performance

  27. Adjacent Circuit Criteria: WRS1 and WRS1.1 New Drafting Team Proposal: • Any two circuits within 250 feet are Adjacent Circuits • Intermediate circuits have no impact • Only applicable if BOTH circuits are above 300 KV • Criteria does not apply to internal systems • 3 mile total exemption for station entrances, river crossings, etc. • Clarified using both outage frequency and MTBF

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