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Brazilian Price Changes: Distribution, Estimation, and Asymmetry

This study explores Brazilian price changes, their distribution, estimation methods, and income effects. It analyzes the efficiency gains of symmetric and asymmetric estimators.

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Brazilian Price Changes: Distribution, Estimation, and Asymmetry

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  1. Figure 1: Brazilian Price Changes (retail prices, May 2000) weighted frequency Mean = 0.01% Standard Dev. = 0.017% Skewness = 2.1 Kurtosis = 10.1

  2. Figure 2: The Distribution of Brazilian Price Changes (retail prices, July 1994 - May 2000) weighted frequency Average Monthly Distribution Mean = 10.6 Standard Dev. = 29.3 Skewness = 0.4 Kurtosis = 78.6 Normal Distribution

  3. Figure 3: Hypothetical Mixed Normal Distribution Frequency Leptokurtic, non-normal, mixed distribution, variance=5, kurtosis=4.7 Standard normal, variance=1, kurtosis=3 High variance normal, variance=9, kurtosis=3 0

  4. Figure 4: Symmetric Trimmed Mean Estimators in Brazil (historical observations, benchmark= 36 mo. centered average) Efficiency criteria RMSE MAD

  5. Figure 5: Symmetric Brazilian Inflation Estimates (monthly percent changes, August 1994 to May 2000) Percent 10% trimmed mean Mean inflation Median inflation Mean family income of respondent (in thousands)

  6. Figure 6: Brazilian Price Asymmetry (mean percentile of the price change distribution) August 1994 to May 2000 Percent 60.4% Mean family income of respondent (in thousands)

  7. Figure 7: Brazilian Inflation Estimates (monthly percent changes, August 1994 to May 2000) Percent 60.4 percentile inflation Mean inflation Mean family income of respondent (in thousands)

  8. Figure 8: Symmetric and Asymmetric Median Efficiency Gains (August 1994 - May 2000, benchmark = 36 mo. centered average) weighted frequency 60.4 percentile centered median

  9. Figure 9: 60th Percentile Efficiency Gains Over Mean Brazil Inflation (August 1994 - May 2000, benchmark = 24 mo. centered average) RMSE Criteria 27% 27% 23% 18% 13% -1% 9% 0% 0% 7% 2% 5%

  10. Figure 10: Brazilian Inflation Estimates (monthly percent changes, August 1994 to May 2000) Percent Variance Weighted Price Index Mean inflation Mean family income of respondent (in thousands)

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