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  1. Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of GermanyDr. Jörg Dräger Harvard University, July 26th, 2012

  2. The „PISA shock“ of 2001 madeeducation an issueof national interestandtriggeredmajorpolicychanges PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  3. PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidencein Germany PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Hugesocialdependency andalmost ¼ below minimum readingskills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  4. Ideology instead of accountability: German educational policy has a difficult history with transparency Is the new age of trans-parency really sustainable? 1960 - 1970 Two international comparative studies on student achievements show very problematic results for Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies. 1970 - 2000 30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education: excellence vs. equity, one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, … 2000 - 2010/12 PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency, followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach to educational reforms

  5. Positive reviews: PISA hasdonemoreforeducation in Germany than 30 yearsofideologicaldiscussionsbefore „PISA stoppedthecomplacencyandself-confidence, withwhich Germany hadlookedatitseducationsystemfortoolong.“ Der SPIEGEL, 2010 „Since PISA, educationisnohullabalooanymore.“ Baumert, 2011 „Germany hasbecome a role model forcooperationbetweenacademiaandpolitics.“ Klieme et al., 2010

  6. Increasingchallengesforeducation in Germany: Changes in societyleadto an unprecedentedclassroomdiversity PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  7. Demographics, migration and parents put increasing challenges on the German education system Demographics: numberofstudents (andschools) heavilyshrinks Migration: Germany becomes (muchmore) diverse Parental will: parentswant all childrentogotogrammarschool Growing diversity means additional reform pressure for the German education system 7

  8. Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% –in some West German regions even by up to 40% Relative change in numbers of 10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025) • School mergers • – • classroom diversity is increasing legend: changes in percent Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de

  9. Migration: Germany is today an immigration country – one third of the youngest with migration background Frankfurt: almost three out of four newborns with migration backgrund Germany: share of population with migration background 34 % + 112% 16 % 72% Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus Source: Mikrozensus 2007 Classroom diversity is increasing

  10. Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium) becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class students at grammar schools as share of all students in class 8 (in percent) Local grammar school share of up to 80% – classroom diversity is increasing

  11. The PISA shockhasopened a windowforsomemajorstructuralpolicyreforms in Germany overthe last decade PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  12. ECEC, full-dayschools, inclusion, two-tierschooling: Germany hasstarted a wide ranging reform Two-tiered schooling as a standard Expanding Early Childhood Education Structuralchanges in German education 58 % 88 % 2011 2001 Commitment to inclusive education Expanding full-day schooling

  13. Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive in-vestments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go three-year olds in daycare (Germany) 58 % 88 % Dynamic expansion, but legal rightforchilddaycare(under 3 ys.) in 2013 verydifficulttomeet (demand 50%, today‘ssupply 25%) 2011 2001 under-three-year olds (2001-2011): Institutional daycare has tripled Better Quality (2006-2011): child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5 Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung: Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011

  14. Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved Educational expansion in Germany % Development 1960-2010 Hauptschule: 72 % to 18 % Access toHigher Education: 6 % to 48 % Pupils at Hauptschulen (8th grade) Pupils allowed tostudy at HEI Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and one additional type of secondary school (13 years).

  15. Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion,but supply still lags far behind actual demand numbers in percent Share of all pupils in full-day schooling Attendance rate full-dayschooling Germany: 28 % Sweden: 100 % USA: 100 % Canada: 100 % growth rate Dynamic expansion with huge regional disparities, but Germany is still far behind international standards and demand Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012

  16. Commitment to inclusive education: About half a millionchildren with special needs may attend regular schooling 485.418 specialneedspupils 3.306 specialneedschools 9 typesofspecialsupport Today On average two special need children per regular class – Need for new didactics (individual support) Tomorrow Implementing UN convention leads to dissolution of special needs schooling in Germany

  17. New transparencyandempiricism: The PISA shocktriggered an unseencollaborationofpoliticsandacademia PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  18. PISA has brought standards and accountability into German education National competence standards (since 2004) National education report (since 2006) PISA follow up Output-oriented competence standards for grades 4, 9 and 10 developed by academia,enacted by politics institutionalized in 2010 Bi-yearly indicator-based monitoring by an expert consortium of indepen-dent academics and commissioned by politics Regular participation in international study, but since 2006 no intra-German comparison anymore (due to self control of the Länder) Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control

  19. Lookingattheresults: Germany hasexperienced a decadeofimpressiveeducationalimprovements PISA shock 2001 Tackling increasingchallenges:a newdiversity in German schools Germany below average in all skills dimensions Impressiveimprove- ments tical attention Structural policy reform: no single success factor, but many puzzle pieces But also: reasonablefearof throwbacksandoldsloppiness Public and poli- Huge social dependency and almost ¼ below minimum reading skills New transparencyandempiricism: competencestandardsandaccountability

  20. Germany is not Germany: Averagescienceperformanceofthe 16 German Länder differsbynearly 60 points AveragesciencecompetencegapoftwoschoolyearsbetweenSaxonyand Bremen

  21. Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science Reading Mathematics Science Above Average OECD Average 2009 2009 2009 Below Average 2000 2000 2000 Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration Significant improvements in all skills dimensions over the last decade: 13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year)

  22. Germany‘ssuccessstorystemsfromclosingthegap – but unfortunatelyatthecostofthebest Formerly weak Länder succeed Overall skills disparities decrease ! improvement from 2000 to 2006 (PISA points) reading skills reading skills 2000 (PISA points) Source: Wössmann, 2012 PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends Disparities have decreased, but are still significant – Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top

  23. Social dependency has significantly decreased – Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average socialdependency Family background(readingcompetence 2000-2009): working-classchildrenhavesignificantlyimproved, whileuppersocialclassperfor-mancedecreased Migration (readingcompetence 2000-2009): studentswithmigrationbackground (+27 points) havemadeupforoneschoolyear (others: +4) Source: Klieme et al., 2010 Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic gradient has now reached OECD average

  24. But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA) Significant progress, but nearly one in five teenagers still cannot properly read (focus: boys with migration background) percent Source: PISA 2000 and 2009

  25. Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich Conclusion: Though it was not planned, Germany hasmoved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform Piece by piece towards a whole-system reform Strong publicandpoliticalattention Individualized support for ALL children More Lear-ning Time (ECEC + full-dayschool) Inclu-sive edu-cation 2-tiered school structure Focus on outcome/performance • standards& autonomy • capacity • building • improvedstructures& opportunities PISA triggered (new) transparency

  26. Klasse 9a: Gute Bildung ist möglich Fear: Losing transparency again would endanger the whole system’s stability Well-meant, but not well-done reform pieces Dangerous self-control of the Länder Decreasingpublicandpoliticalattention • most-problematic areas not measured (Haupt-schulen, special need schools) • no comparison between Länder anymore (exit from PISA-E) • scientists without access to PISA data More Learning Time (ECEC + full-day) Inclu-sive edu-cation IndividualizedsupportforALL children 2-tiered schoolstructure Focus on outcome/performance • Danger of wasted money (expensive unmeasured measures) • Danger of arbitrariness LessTransparency

  27. Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“ of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of GermanyDr. Jörg Dräger Harvard University, July 26th, 2012