1 / 27

Climate change II: impacts

Climate change II: impacts. Bio 415/615. Questions. 1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years? 2. What is phenology, and how does it indicate global warming? 3. How are corals influenced by global warming?

cutter
Download Presentation

Climate change II: impacts

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate change II:impacts Bio 415/615

  2. Questions 1. What are 2 ways plants and animals have been influenced by climate change over the last 50 years? 2. What is phenology, and how does it indicate global warming? 3. How are corals influenced by global warming? 4. Do plant communities respond to more CO2 in the atmosphere? How are such experiments conducted?

  3. Review • The world has warmed about 1 C in the past 100 years (compared to 5-7 C in the past 20,000 yrs at mid latitudes) • The world will continue to warm rapidly, perhaps by 5 C over the next 100 years • What will happen to plant and animal populations over the next few human generations? • How to plan for the possibilities in the management of species and communities?

  4. Has recent climate change influenced biodiversity?

  5. Has warming influenced species distributions? Hickling et al. 2005 (UK)

  6. Will warming influence species distributions?

  7. Iverson & Prasad (USFS) Forest composition change in the Eastern US by 2100 (current is upper left). NY will resemble current Tennessee, Missouri (oak hickory forests).

  8. Sugar maple: gone?!

  9. Black cherry: ‘sparse’?!

  10. Beech: contraction?

  11. Sweetgum: can it move?

  12. Longleaf pine: can it move?

  13. Phenology (IPCC 2007)

  14. Phenology (IPCC 2007)

  15. Coral bleaching is a stress response in reef-forming corals, related to a loss of their photosynthetic (algal) symbiont. Between 1876-1979, only 3 bleaching events were recorded in the world. Since 1979, there have been dozens of reports. Donner et al. (2007) report that “anthropogenic warming may have increased the probability of significant thermal stress events for corals [in the Caribbean] by an order of magnitude.”

  16. Mountain meadow warmingHarte and Shaw 1995 Shrubs increase with warming

  17. Arctic warmingWalker et al. 2006 Shrubs increase with warming

  18. Buxton Climate Change Study Est. 1993 Buxton, England; 370 m a.s.l., 53 20’ N Lat

  19. Winter heating (3 °C ) Summer drought (July-Aug) Long-term climate manipulations Summer watering (June-Sept) + Temp/water interactions 3x3 m plots, 5 replicates

  20. No progressive change in composition after 13 years in 3x3 m plots Grime, Fridley et al. 2008 PNAS Major life form groups unchanged Species composition relatively stable

  21. Fine-scale (100 cm2) vegetation and soil surveys 3 m 3 m x x 10 cm x x x 10 cm 20 cm 80% microsite variance within plots x x x x 240 quadrats (8 per 3x3m plot)

  22. 13 out of 25 species exhibited microsite responses in controls (GLM P<0.05) Deep site specialists Shallow site specialists Potentilla erecta Sanguisorba minor Abundance (cover class) Abundance (cover class) Plantago lanceolata Briza media Thymus polytrichus Generalized Additive Models (GAM) Fridley et al. 2011 Global Change Biology

  23. FACE (Free Air CO2 Enrichment)

  24. What do FACE experiments reveal about enhanced CO2 effects on forests? Young forest: enhanced growth DeLucia et al. 1999

  25. Mature forest: CO2 effects?Koerner et al. 2005 Mature forest: no consistent difference

  26. Will warming facilitate biological invasions? Walther et al. 2002

  27. How do we manage ecosystems if the climate is changing? • Corridors? • Assisted migration? • Manage for local adaptation? Genetic diversity? • Keep out invaders? For how long? • What about plants and animals that will have no suitable new climates? • Focus on processes rather than species?

More Related