Volatility Reigns

2. Volatility Reigns • The good news is AAA estimates Americans saved more than $115 billion on their gasoline purchases during 2015, or approximately $550 for every licensed driver. • The bad news is that the 79% decrease in the price of a barrel of oil from June 2014 to February 2016 has resulted in numerous companies in the industry going bankrupt, the loss of 250,000 jobs and huge decreases in 2015 revenues for major energy companies. • The ugly is the negative effect of low oil prices on the economies of Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela and other countries. During 2016, Iran will start to bring oil to world markets and Saudi Arabia refuses to reduce its oil production, which could cause more ugliness.

3. The Race to a Price Bottom • AAA estimates the 2016 average price for a gallon of regular gas will be $2.25 to $2.45. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecast $2.03. Both projections may already be invalid given the early February average of $1.739 and some prices near $1. • The EIA’s forecast for the average diesel price during 2016 is $2.29 while Gas Buddy has estimated $2.16 per gallon. The EIA is projecting these prices to be higher for 2017, with gasoline at $2.21 per gallon and diesel at $2.59 per gallon. • Average prices will increase during the first 6 months of the year since refineries perform yearly maintenance and then switch from winter blend to summer blend gasoline. AAA says the increase could be as much as 50 cents.

4. Cornering the Fuel Market • Convenience stores continue to be the largest purveyors of gasoline and diesel fuel, accounting for approximately 80% of all sales during 2015. At the end of 2015, there were 154,195 stores in the US, or 1,401 more stores than the end of 2014. • As of May 2014, big-box grocery stores and mass merchandising stores had 13.8% of the motor fuels market, with Kroger, Wal-Mart, Sam’s Club, Costco and Safeway the largest. The remaining share belonged to standalone service stations. • According to The Association for Convenience & Fuel Retailing’s 2015 Fuels Report, approximately 58% of convenience stores that sell fuel are single locations. The largest chains, with 201 or more stores, represent 23% of the market.

5. The Inside Profits • The average US household spent approximately $2,000 for gasoline during 2015; however, the gas station/convenience store realizes very little profit, as the average during the past 5 years has been approximately 5 cents per gallon. • For most convenience stores, there is much greater profit in what customers buy in the store and, according to The Association for Convenience & Fuel Retailing’s 2015 Fuels Report, 35% of customers entered the store after pumping their gas during 2015. • Young adults, 18–34, at 42%, were the largest age group to enter the store after filling their tank.

6. Car Culture Challenges • For the short term, gas stations/convenience stores will benefit from the record sales in light vehicles, especially the 9.7% increase in pickup truck sales and 16% increase in SUV and crossover sales during 2015, compared to 5.7% for all vehicles. • Telecommuting may have a long-term effect on gasoline sales, however, since 37% of Americans said that had telecommuted during 2015, compared to 9% during 1995. • The car-sharing services offered by Uber, Lyft and others are credited with reducing the amount of miles Americans travel, Millennials especially; and urbanization is forecast to increase to 81.5% in North America by 2050, further reducing total miles driven.

7. A Future of No Gas and No Driver • Although the steep decline in the price of gasoline resulted in 12% fewer Toyota Priuses and 23% fewer Chevrolet Volts sold during 2015, electric cars will eventually represent a significant share of vehicles, since battery technology breakthroughs are imminent.   • All the major automakers are introducing driverless vehicles during the next 5 years, which will navigate their routes via onboard digital map technology, resulting in more efficient travel and less gasoline required. • Autonomous vehicles are expected to travel in fleets within close proximity of each other, which will significantly reduce wind drag and could reduce fuel consumption by 20–30%, according to research from The Rocky Mountain Institute.

8. Advertising Strategies • Convenience stores can use TV to attract older adults into the store, promoting a special display of low-fat, low-sodium and low-sugar beverages, snacks and sandwiches and offering a limited time price when purchasing two or more items from the display. • Brands that scored well on the Gas Buddy US Best Value Brand can use the powerful visual nature of television to tout their position on the list and their price differential compared to their competitors. • Local and regional chains may want to start branding themselves as total fuel centers, as they add or expand the availability of alternative fuels. Offer a discount on the first “fill-up” to consumers who recently purchased an electric or other alternative fuel vehicles.

9. Social Media Strategies • Use social media to help consumers understand the factors that affect the price of gasoline, with links to current news stories about oil prices, the oil market, price projections and how the station decides to raise and lower prices. • Record spontaneous video interviews/testimonials with customers at the pump, asking them why they buy their fuel at that station, what station improvements would sustain their loyalty and any interesting story they can tell that relates to fuel, fuel prices, etc. • Ask customers to share photos and videos of trips taken after filling the tank of their vehicle at the station, explaining where they are going, who’s traveling with them, what they discovered and learned during their trip, etc.