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Newcastle University, England, UK

Behind the Numbers: The Demography of Intercountry Adoption . Peter Selman Newcastle University, UK pfselman@yahoo.co.uk. Newcastle University, England, UK. The Rise and Fall of ICA.

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Newcastle University, England, UK

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  1. Behind the Numbers: The Demography of Intercountry Adoption Peter Selman Newcastle University, UK pfselman@yahoo.co.uk Newcastle University, England, UK

  2. The Rise and Fall of ICA • The period from 1998-2009 saw a remarkable rise and fall in the number of children moving for intercountry adoption each year. • In 1998 there were c 31,700 adoptions; by 2004 this had risen to over 45,000; By 2009 it had fallen to under 30,000 – less than in 1998. Available statistics for 2010 suggest that the global total will fall further, although numbers have increased in France and Italy

  3. Intercountry Adoption 1998-2009 1998 2001 2004 2008 2009 USA – FY Spain France Italy Canada Top 5 15,774 1,487 3,777 2,233 2,222 25,493 19,237 3,428 3,094 1,797 1,926 29,430 22,884 5,541 4,079 3,400 1,955 37,861 17,483 3,156 3,271 3,977 1,908 31,556 12,753 3,006 3,017 3,964 2,122 24,862 23 States % to USA 31,710 50% 36,391 53% 45,298 51% 34,774 50% 29,863 43%

  4. Standardised Rates • Although the United States receive most children for ICA , other countries have a higher level per 100,000 population. In 2004 the highest rates were found in Norway (15.4), Spain (13.0)and Sweden (12.3)‏ • The lowest rates were in Australia ( 1.9 )Germany ( 0.8 ) and the UK ( 0.6 )‏ • In Sweden in 1977 the rate was 22.6 and there were 2 adoptions for every 100 births

  5. The rise in numbers 1998-2004 1998 2001 2004 % change Spain Ireland Netherlands Italy USA 1,487 147 825 2,233 15,774 3,428 179 1,122 1,797 19,237 5,541 398 1,307 3,402 22,884 + 273 +171 + 58 + 52 + 45 22 States 31,710 36,391 45,298 + 42 % Sweden Norway France Canada 928 643 3,777 2,222 1,044 713 3,094 1,874 1,109 700 4,079 1,955 + 19 + 10 + 8 - 15

  6. Change in Numbers 2004-2010

  7. The Demographic History of ICA • More than 400,000 children were adopted world-wide to 23+ countries between 2000 and 2010 – largest number for any decade • The next four slides will explore the number adopted in previous decades since 1950 • This will enable an estimate of the number of children adopted since the end of WW2

  8. Intercountry Adoption 1990 -1999 • Data were obtained for 15-20 countries from 1993 – 1999 and for 12 countries 1990-1992 • About 225,000 children were adopted to these countries – many from China and Russia after 1992 - and 10,000+ from Romania in 1990/91 • Estimated number not recorded would be at least 10,000. So decade total would be 235,000+

  9. Intercountry Adoption 1980 - 1989 • Kane (1993) obtained data from 14 countries – 8 had good data for 9-10 years; 4 for 5-8 years - but Canada sent data for Quebec alone but took many more ; 2 (Spain and Germany) had data for only 3 years. • Data sent amounted to 163,000 (78,000 – 47% - from the USA), Kane estimates a minimum of 170-180,000 for the decade.

  10. Intercountry Adoption 1970-1979 • Data for 5 countries (USA; Holland; Denmark, Norway and Sweden) – give a total of 77,000. • Belgium and France received 6,000 from Korea alone during this decade. • Children were also sent by India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and several Latin American countries; and received in addition by Canada, Germany, Italy Luxembourg and Switzerland. • A decade total of at least 90-100,000 is likely.

  11. Intercountry Adoption 1948-1969 • Altstein & Simon (1991) record more than 31,000 to USA; there were 4,500 to Sweden; and children also went to the Netherlands, Belgium and Scandinavia) • Korea sent 9,000+ children from 1953-1969 • Germany sent 30,000 ( 5,000+ to the US) • Greece sent c 4,000 to US and 400+ to Netherlands • Children were also sent from Austria and Japan • The total number moving in these years will be at least 50,000+

  12. Summary of Estimate 1948-2010 • 2000-2010 410,000 • 1990-1999 235,000 + • 1980- 1989 180,000 (Kane) • 1970-1979 95,000 + • 1948- 1969 50,000 + • All states 1948-2010 = 970,000+ • USA 1948-2010 = 450,000

  13. Countries of Origin • Many countries have been involved in intercountry adoption and those sending most children have changed over time. • Korea has the longest sequence of official statistics (1953-2009) - total over 165,000 by 2010. • Between 1992 and 2010 China has sent more than 125,000 children for ICA; Russia more than 110,000 • Tables below are based on statistical returns to the 2010 Hague Special Commission or on estimates from data from receiving States.

  14. Top 7 Sending Countries: 1980-2009 1980-89 1998 2004 2009 Korea India Colombia Brazil Sri Lanka Chile Philippines China Russia Vietnam Korea Colombia Guatemala India China Russia Guatemala Korea Ukraine Colombia Ethiopia China Ethiopia Russia Ukraine Vietnam Korea Colombia

  15. Top 6 Sending Countries 2009 USA FY Spain Italy France China Ethiopia Russia Korea Guatemala Ukraine Russia Ethiopia China Ukraine Colombia Kazakhstan Russia Ukraine Colombia Ethiopia Brazil Poland Haiti Ethiopia Vietnam Russia Colombia Mali

  16. States of Origin 2005-2009 2005 2007 2009 2005-9 TOTAL TO 23 STATES 43,402 37,514 29,045 - 14,357 CHINA GUATEMALA RUSSIA Three States 14,493 3,857 7,471 8,754 4,850 4,881 4,890 356 3,693 - 9,603 - 3,501 - 3,778 -16,882 ETHIOPIA HAITI VIETNAM Three States 1,778 921 1,190 3,031 779 1,692 4,564 1,238 1,497 + 2,786 + 317 + 307 - 3,410

  17. Standardised Rates • China sends most children for intercountry adoption other countries send more in relation to their level of births (adoptions per 1,000). China Ratio – 0.3 in 2009 • From 2003-2009, the highest levels were found in Bulgaria (15.5 in 2003) and Guatemala (10.8 in 2007);Haiti may reach 9-10.0 in 2010. Higher levels for Romania in 1991 and Korea in the 1980s. • India’s adoption ratio (0.02 in 2009) is the lowest of the top ten sending countries. Ethiopia’s ratio rose from 0.3 in 2003 to 1.5 in 2009

  18. Adoption Ratios in States of Origin2003 – 2009 – by rank in 2005

  19. Age of Children Adopted USA 2008 USA 2005 Under 1 1-4 5+ Under 1 1-4 5+ Korea 86% 12% 1% 92% 8% 0% Guatemala 48% 47% 5% 79% 18% 3% China 24% 66% 10% 35% 63% 3% Russia 4% 75% 21% 20% 51% 29% Ukraine --- 30% 70% --- 53% 47% Brazil --- 27% 73% 5% 22% 74%

  20. Age of Children Adopted in Key Receiving states - Hague

  21. Adoptions from ASIA • Asian adoptions represented a majority (55%+) of all transnational adoptions until the mid-1980s • In the 21st century Asia accounts for 40%+ : 46% in 2005 falling to 35% in 2009, when Asia accounted for 80% of adoptions to Australia; 60% of adoptions to Sweden;45% for USA; 25% for Spain; 20% for Italy and France • In recent years there have been major concerns over adoption from India, Vietnam and Nepal

  22. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 USA 6,138 4,736 3,515 3,029 Spain 2,608 1,269 738 817 Canada 928 748 496 294 379 Netherland 667 367 330 297 297 Sweden 432 335 248 198 255 France 439 331 178 139 95 Australia 124 112 93 57 55 To 17 states 14,221 10,646 7,858 5,531 5,294 CHINA 2005-2009 – CCAA data 7,933 1,909

  23. % of Children Adopted from China with special needs

  24. 4 Asian States of Origin2001-2008

  25. Adoption from South Korea • In 2007 for the first time for many years there were more domestic than intercountry adoptions. But the annual number of transnational adoptions remains high for a country which is now rich and has lowest fertility in Asia. • Most adoptions are now of children of unmarried mothers - see I wish for you a beautiful life • Korea still sends more children per 1,000 births than Ethiopia or China.

  26. KOREA 1998-2009: Min H&W

  27. Adoption in India • India has the lowest adoption ratio of any major sending country and numbers have been falling in recent years. In-country adoptions are now more numerous, but remain few in relation to need. • But concern over irregularities have been increasing. The agency Preet Mandir was exposed by CNN as “selling” babies to foreigners - see also writing of David Smolin in US and Julia Rollings in Australia, whose adopted children had been stolen. • .

  28. INDIA 1998 -2010

  29. In-country and Intercountry Adoption in India and Korea

  30. VIETNAM 2003-2010

  31. Nepal 2003-2010

  32. The rise and fall of adoptions from Eastern Europe • The fall of Ceausescu and media coverage of the Romanian orphanages led to estimated 10,000+ adoptions in 1990/91. • From 1995 Russia and other E. Europe states sent many • In 2005 Romania called a total end to non-relative ICA. • Adoptions have also ended in Belarus and fallen in Bulgaria • As a result the proportion of ICA from Europe - excluding Kazakhstan - fell from 31% in 2003 to 23 % in 2009 - • BUT number of children – many older or special needs - sent from Latvia, Lithuania and other new EU states has risen.

  33. Eastern Europe 2003-2009 2003 2004 2006 2009 Russia 7,746 9,426 6,766 4,039 Ukraine 2,052 2,021 1,031 1,523 Bulgaria 963 393 96 222 Belarus 656 627 34 27 Romania 473 289 0 0 Poland 346 406 362 401 Hungary 69 70 100 120 EUROPE 13,058 13,949 9,043 6,793

  34. RUSSIA 2004-2010

  35. Intercountry Adoption from Africa For many years intercountry adoption from Africa was rare. However, the growing demand for young infants - and in the US publicity surrounding adoption from Ethiopia by Angelina Jolie – has changed all that. In 2003 Africa accounted for 5% of all intercountry adoptions – by 2009 this had risen to 22% In 2009 Ethiopia was the second largest source of children for ICA after China and the main supplier of children to Belgium, Canada and Denmark. And numbers sent by Nigeria, Mali and Congo (Democratic Republic) are rising.

  36. AFRICA 2004-2009 (US FY)

  37. ETHIOPIA 2001-2010

  38. Adoption from Latin America • In the 1980s 8 of the top 12 sending countries were from Latin America. In 2008 only 3 - Guatemala, Colombia and Haiti - were in the top 12; in 2009 only Colombia and Haiti. Brazil still sends 4-500 children a year, most are older or have special need: Peru and Mexico send 100 150;Chile and El Salvador send less than 100. • Haiti has become a major source for France, Canada, the USA and the Netherlands – hence the concern over recent events.

  39. Latin America 2003-2009

  40. Child Rescue or Child Theft ? • In 2007 a French Charity Zoe’s Ark was accused of child trafficking in the case of the 103 children it attempted to fly out of Chad - and sentenced in Chad to 8 years hard labour. • In 2010 The Haitian Earthquake raised fears of “rescue” of children affected. 10 members of an Idaho-based Baptist charity were arrested for trying to take 33 Haitian children across the border with the Dominican Republic without proper paperwork – none were orphans • Meanwhile fears were also raised over plans to “expedite” adoptions which were “in the pipe-line” – leading to a major report from ISS.

  41. HAITI: ISS Report (Aug 2010) • Report highlights many areas of concern over how adoptions were expedited after earthquake • Accepts that adoptions in “pipeline” with appropriate adoption judgement may be expedited but only after a “waiting period” • For other children, hindsight indicates that heightened risks outweigh any benefits, • Urgent need for a common approach which does not circumvent vital procedures

  42. HAITI 2006-2010

  43. United States 2005-2009

  44. What happened in 2009-10 ? • The continued decline in global numbers was largely due to the moratorium on adoptions from Guatemala and Liberia to the USA. • The rise in adoptions from Ethiopia accelerated • Adoptions from Haiti doubled after earthquake • No. of Adoptions to Sweden, Denmark and Norway increased in 2009; and to France and Italy in 2010. • As a result adoptions to Europe outnumbered those to USA for first time since the 1980s.

  45. What will happen in 2011 ? • ?? Adoptions will recommence from Guatemala and Liberia • Adoptions from Haiti and Korea will be fewer • Adoptions from Ethiopia will decline • Pressure on other African states will increase • Adoptions from Nepal and Vietnam will rise • Global numbers will continue to decline • International Surrogacy will continue to rise

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