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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

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Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System. Alan Drake, Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009 New America Foundation. The Millennium Institute. MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

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slide1
Evaluating the Creation of a Parallel Non-Oil Transportation System

Alan Drake,

Andrea M. Bassi January 30, 2009

New America Foundation

the millennium institute
The Millennium Institute
  • MI is a not for profit organization based in Arlington VA, USA.

• Established in 1983, MI has assisted over 45 countries to prepare strategic studies of sustainable development possibilities.

  • MI develops and disseminates advanced analytical tools to support strategic planning on critical issues.
  • MI builds capacity in countries to use our tools to help address critical issues.
three policy changes
Three Policy Changes
  • Renewable Energy
  • Urban Rail and related

Transportation Orientated Development

  • Expand, Improve and Electrify Freight Railroads
slide4
2030

vs. Business As Usual

  • GDP: +13%
  • CO2: -38%
  • Oil Consumption: -24%
  • Employment: +7.2 million (+5.2%)

2030 is NOT year of maximum impact

slide5
2030

vs. BAU

  • GDP: +11.8%
  • CO2: -3.8%
  • Oil Consumption: -27.6%
  • Employment: +6.7 million (+4.7%)

Subtract Renewable Energy

slide6
2030

vs. BAU

  • GDP: +9.7%
  • CO2: -6.2%
  • Oil Consumption: -22%
  • Employment: +5.5 million (+3.8%)

ONLY Electrified and Expanded Freight Rail

maximum commercial effort assumed
Maximum Commercial EffortAssumed
  • Maximum Production or Construction that money alone can motivate
  • Less than War Time Effort - People will do more when national survival is at stake
  • Alberta Tar Sands Development was an example until a few months ago
maximum commercial effort
MaximumCommercialEffort
  • Electrify 36,000 miles of mainline railroads in7 years, Add HV AC & HV DC transmission
  • Doubletrack and improve mainline Railroads
  • Remove bottlenecks like CREATE
  • Electrify another 36,000 miles by 2030
  • $250 - $300 billion
  • 14,000 miles of Semi-HSR - $250 billion
  • Urban Rail - $60 billion/yr for 20 years
  • Wind, Solar PV and Pumped Storage - see ACORE
  • Encourage Bicycling and Walkable Neighborhoods
historical accomplishments
Historical Accomplishments
  • During WW II, National & Military Policy was to ship everything possible by rail to save oil, rubber and trucks for the war effort
  • 90% of ton-miles by rail, rest by truck, barge and pipeline during WW II
  • Our goal is, over 20 years, to shift 85% of truck ton-miles to rail
economics of rail electrification
Economics of Rail Electrification

20 BTUs Diesel > 1 BTU Electricity

Freight 17 to 21:1 ratio

Urban Rail, Indirect > Direct Savings

Consider DC without Metro today

Positive Cost Elasticity of Supply for Rail

Negative Cost Elasticity of Supply for Roads

Domestic Electricity instead of Imported Oil

electrical consumption for transportation
Electrical Consumption for Transportation
  • USA: 0.19%
  • France: 2.3%
  • USA 2030: ~4% (Without considering EVs)

EVs - 17% for personal transport

side effects feedback loops 1 relative gdp and emissions
SideEffects: Feedback Loops (1)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Freight Scenario

Freight + Renewable Energy

Scenario

side effects feedback loops 2 relative gdp and emissions
SideEffects: Feedback Loops(2)Relative GDP and Emissions

GDP

CO2 Emissions

Freight

Freight + Renewable Energy

side effects tradeoffs 3 relative oil consumption
Side Effects:Tradeoffs (3)Relative Oil Consumption

Renewable Energy generation increases average electricity prices and limits the reduction in oil consumption

Freight + Renewable Energy

Freight Scenario

Low electricity prices stimulate the adoption of e.g. hybrid vehicles

conclusions
Conclusions
  • There is no silver bullet to today’s problems;
  • Electrified rail, especially when coupled with renewable energy, is a good option;
  • Side effects and unintended consequences may arise and lead the system into unwanted and uncharted territories;
  • Identifying potential threats early enough, allows to turn them into opportunities.
thank you for your attention
Thankyouforyourattention

For more information please visit:

www.millennium-institute.org

Or send an email to:

[email protected]

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