Rethinking the BAU energy paradigm. Liam Salter Head, Climate Programme WWF Hong Kong ICCC May 2007. Six principles for change. Outline. The concept of business as usual energy paradigm Technology mixes for climate protection Six principles for reform Hong Kong and the six principles
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Head, Climate Programme
WWF Hong Kong
ICCC May 2007
Six principles for change
“At any time in history there is a ruling paradigm within the constraints of which most thinking takes place.”
“When its effectiveness diminishes and it begins to break down, a paradigm shift takes place and a new paradigm comes into being.”
The late Amulya Reddy
“… any plausible BAU scenario entails continuing increases in global temperatures, well beyond levels previously experienced by humankind …” (Stern Report)
IEA WEO 2004
US DOE EIA 2007
WWF Climate Solutions Report (2007) www.panda.org/climate
Hohne and Hoogwijk, (2005)
Using principles and techniques already in use today
Not intended as an exhaustive list
Limitations of power sector oriented analysis
Packages and tools vary by country and sector
Policy targets critical to evaluate performance of packages e.g. China’s 11 Five Year Plan
Minimum standards – appliances, buildings, automobiles
Sector specific programmes e.g. China’s top - 1000 programme
Consumer engagement and labeling
“Economics drive customers. Customers drive markets. But first, they must be informed, educated and challenged” Rose McKinney-James, former President and CEO of the Corporation for Solar Technology and Renewable Resources, Nevada.
"We must understand clearly that public participation is the right and interest of the people endowed by law. The government has the obligation to respond to and to protect this right.“ Pan Yue, SEPA Vice-Minister
Laws passed in Massachusetts, Ohio, and New Jersey and Rhode Island in recent years,
One programme involving over half a million customers has already achieved a 33% greenhouse gas reduction in its electricity without a rate increase.
12 Californian cities, 3 million residents finalising Ordinance to achieve 40% green electricity from green power
1999-2000 - Civil society analysis of MSEB tariff proposals revealed accounting irregularities and allowed the regulator to insist on enhanced energy efficiency
‘Its not that we need new ideas, but we need to stop having old ideas’.
A paradigm shift using DEFENDUS or Soft Energy Path style logic is required to protect the world from climate change. ‘Tinkering around the edges’ will not bring the major shifts in technology required to cut emissions.
Paradigm shift must go beyond technology analysis and understand the system-level issues that drive technology choice
Beyond technology paradigm shift can be defined concretely in terms of specific principles which can be used as the basis for energy policy analysis and development
Can a focus on principles move us out of our ‘technology boxes’? And actually improve our ability to build consensus?