C oncepts , data and perspectives – the utility of coastal , marine and climate science

1. 27. November 2013 - Alfred Wegener Institutfür Polar- und Meeresforschung, Bremerhaven Concepts, data and perspectives – the utility of coastal, marine and climate science Hans von Storch InstitutfürKüstenforschung HZG

2. Beyond the rhetoric of societal benefits It is nowadays a common requirement when preparing scientific proposals that the project is generating societally useful knowledge or skills. Thus, almost all proposals feature a section or least a paragraph which describes "outreach", "knowledge transfer" or "stakeholder-interaction". In many if not most cases, the proposers as well as reviewers have only lay-concepts for doing so, and the activity goes rarely beyond giving a few talks on public events and a press release. Thus, the reference to stakeholders and decision making is often merely rhetorically and empty.

3. It is not surprising that the stakeholder-interaction is often not taken seriously since many scientifically legitimate and valid questions or answers have no direct bearing for any stakeholder. Some of these provide clues for a better understanding or better modeling of the system at hand, and this improvement may turn out of being of utility for stakeholders after some development at a later time. That is, exploiting the advancement of science together with an embedding of societal questions will in some cases result in direct utility for public understanding of complex phenomena of environmental dynamics and socio-economic dynamics. In other cases, no such utility is generated. The value of the scientific achievement is independent of its societal utility.

4. When speaking of added utility, we do not imply that science would solve societal conflicts, such as how to use certain regions, or how to decide about conflicting usages of coastal seas, such as off-shore wind energy, fishing and protection of migrating birds. However, by clarifying certain "if -then" questions and dealing with options of decision making, science can contribute valuably to quality of life, both in terms of understanding and management.

5. In this presentation cases of scientific efforts are sketched which aim believably at such utility-gains • Deutung / making sense • Monitoring • Detection and attribution • Scenarios and forecasts

6. Categories of utility of scientific insights • Deutung • Understanding of complex phenomena, such as consequences of eutrophication or the manifestation of natural system variations vis-a-avis anthropogenic climate change. • For making these scientific understandings acceptable by the public, it is needed to understand public questioning, and public mental models of the dynamics and statistics of the coastal sea environment.

7. Example How does the intra-seasonal variability of high tides in Cuxhaven depend on the seasonal mean circulation? von Storch, H. and H. Reichardt 1997: A scenario of storm surge statistics for the German Bight at the expected time of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. - J. Climate 10, 2653-2662

8. Categories of utility of scientific insights • Monitoring • Routine monitoring, analysis and short-term forecast of current environmental state, such as coastal wave conditions, and the emergence of certain short-term events, such as storm surges or algae blooms.

9. Example Analyse von Sturm “Christian” am 28. Oktober 2013 Seewetteramt des DWD, Lefebrve und Rosenhagen

10. COSYNA product #1: Analysis of surface currents in the German Bight employing radar measurements and data assimilation in dynamical model Hours after Dec 5, 2009, 00 UTC: HF radar observations Predicted current Kalman filter analysis Complete, optimized current fields Only model Data assimilated

11. Categories of utility of scientific insights • Detection and attribution • For all kind of societal modifications, be it aquaculture or bridge-building, of the coastal environment, knowledge is needed about the statistics of variability, including rare events and the hazards associated with such rare events, and the sensitivity of these statistics to global and local change. • In particular man-made climate change is a factor which may influence the assessment of future risks of offshore and shoreline activities. The identification of systematic change (detection) and plausible mixes of causes (attribution) are key concepts to make concepts of change accessible for public and stakeholders

12. Example: detection Counting of globally warmest years in the record of thermometer-based estimates of global mean surface air temperature: In 2013, it was found that among the last 23 years (since 1990) there were the 20 warmest years of all years since 1880 (133 years). For both a short-memory world ( for a long-memory world (d = 0.45) the probability for such an event would be less than 10-4. Thus, we detect a change stronger than what would be expected to happen if only internal variations would be active; thus, external causes are needed for explaining this clustering

13. Example: attribution Attribution argument provided by IPCC AR5, SPM of WG I, 2013

14. Example “All extremes are getting worse, in particular storms are getting more destructive.”

15. Categories of utility of scientific insights Scenarios and forecasts A societal value is generated when planning which reflect (changing) societal preferences is combined with knowledge about geophysical (or ecological) conditions Such preferences may relate to the exploitation of marine winds for off-shore energy generation. Such geophysical (or ecological) conditions may be the statistics of ocean waves, or the needs of a healthy population of harbor porpoises. In this case, an understanding among scientists is required about the managerial information needs.

16. Range ofprojectedchangeof: precipitationamount – atthe end ofthecentury

17. Maximum wind

18. Making sense of “scenarios” • Scenarios are notpredictions (most probable developments) but descriptions of possible futures. • The utility of scenarios is to examine possibilities and options – as a support for decision processes. • Another utility is the provision of steering public perspectives (doomsday prophecies)

19. Situation Apart from scientific knowledge alternative knowledge claimsexists among stakeholders and public; scientific practice is influenced by such cultural constructions. Scientific knowledge is widely scattered, partly consensual, partly contested.Scientific agreement and disagreement is not documented on regional scales. The format of regional research results is often incomprehensible for the public, and not decision-relevant.Public reception of research findings causes a metamorphosis of scientific knowledge. The issue is “postnormal”, i.e, stakes are high, decisions are urgent, the fact basis is uncertain and societal values are important. Then economic and political interests try to instrumentalize science.

20. Major Challenge: Establish a sustainable dialogue between stakeholders and science in order to generate decision relevant scientific knowledgeand information.

21. Two-pronged approach Theoretical: Understanding dynamics of knowledge about coastal, marine and climate dynamics. Practical: Embedding scientific knowledge in the context of socio-cultural dynamics.

22. Conditions for implementing science-stakeholder interaction(von Storch and Meinke, Nature geoscience, 2008) Analysis of topology of knowledge about dynamics, risks and perspectives, and the role of environmental values.(e.g.,. von Storch, 2009:. Environmental. Science and Policy) Assessments of scientific knowledge about climate and environmental change in regions.(e.g.,. Reckermann, et al., 2008 EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.) Building and studying dialogue between stakeholders and science in order to produce decision-relevant information products.(e.g., von Storch et al., 2011, Journal for Environmental Law and Policy)

23. Examples Analyses of topology of alternative knowledge claims - Surveying in Hamburg, along the North Sea coast and the Elbe about public and administrative understanding of risk (cf. Ratter,et al., 2012: Environmental Science & Policy)- Surveying climate scientist about state of science and policy implementation (cf. Bray, et al., 2011, Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering)- Analysis of scientific and cultural construction of climate change (von Storch, 2009, Leviathan, Berliner Zeitschrift für Sozialwissenschaften)- Postnormalityandclimatescience; international workshopat U Hamburg in 2011(cf. Krauss, et al., 2012: nature and culture)

24. A „linear model“-frameworkofhowtothinkaboutresponsestrategies (Hasselmann, 1990)

25. Increasing level of consensus among scientists that climate change is underway (manifestation) and that it is likely a result of anthropogenic influences (attribution) Bray, 2010

26. Die Wissenschaft wird sich immer einiger, während die Reaktion in der Öffentlichkeit beschränkt bleibt – offenbar eine Entkopplung von Wissenschaft und von manchen gewünschter Mobilisierung der Öffentlichkeit.

27. Isscientificknowledgedrivingthepolicyprocess?

28. How strongly do you employ the following sources of information, for deciding about issues related to climate adaptation? Regional administrators in German Baltic Sea coastal regions. Bray, 2011, pers. comm.

29. Two different construction of „climate change“ – scientific and cultural – which is more powerful? Cultural: „Klimakatastrophe“ Scientific: man-made change is real, can be mitigated to some extent but not completely avoided Temperature Lund and Stockholm Storms

30. Die Allgegenwärtigkeit der politischen Konsequenzen: Postnormalität • Eine Forschungsrichtung befindet sich in einer „postnormalen“ Phase (laut Ravetz und Funtovicz) beschrieben, wenn • Ihre Aussagen inhärent unsicher ist; • und eingesetzt werden für gesellschaftliche Entscheidungen, die • dringend sind; • mit gesellschaftlichen Werten und • mit großem Mitteleinsatz verbunden sind. • Dann besteht die Tendenz, dass Wissenschaft für bestimmte Ziele und Maßnahmen instrumentalisiert wird, und dass die Nützlichkeit der wissenschaftlichen Aussagen vorn größerer Bedeutung ist als die zugrunde liegenden Methodik. • Lobbyisten treten verkleidet als wissenschaftliche Akteure auf.

31. Die Topologie der politischen (und medialen) Nützlichkeit Wissenschaftliches Ethos (Merton)-geleitetes Wissensproduktion und Management Politik-vorschreibend

32. Die Topologie der wissenschaftlichenNützlichkeit Nachhaltiger Einsatz der Ressource Wissenschaft: Bereitstellung von Wissen, um Entscheidungen über Möglichkeiten und Konsequenzen von Optionen zu informieren (z.B. IPCC WG I) Qualitätssicherung durch Limitierung des Einflusses auf Politik und von Politik. Verbrauch der Ressource „Wissenschaft“: Instrumentalisierung von Wissenschaft zugunsten vorgefasster politischer Lösungen. Bevormundung des politischen Willensbildungsprozesses. “Mitte” Honest Brokers Skep-tiker Alarm-isten

33. Examples • Assessment of scientific knowledge about climate, climate change and climate impact • in the Baltic Sea region, in the context of international BALTEX programme (secretariat at HZG), now renamed to BALTIC Earth; adopted by the international Commission of the Baltic Sea, HELCOMThe BACC author team, 2008: Assessment of Climate Change in the Baltic Sea Basin., Springer Verlag • for Metropolitan Region of Hamburg, in the context of the excellence initiative program of climate science CliSAP, Hamburg, adopted by the senate of Hamburgvon Storch, H., M. Claussen andKlimaCampus Autoren Team, 2010: Klimaberibbchtfür die Metropolregion Hamburg, Springer Verlag

34. Principles • The assessment is a synthesis of material drawn comprehensively from the available scientifically legitimate literature (e.g. peer reviewed literature, conference proceedings, reports of scientific institutes). • Influence or funding from groups with a political, economical or ideological agenda is not allowed; however, questions from such groups are welcome. • If a consensus view cannot be found in the above defined literature, this is clearly stated and the differing views are documented. The assessment thus encompasses the knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps. • The assessment is evaluated by independent scientific reviewers.

35. Examples • Dialogue between stakeholders and science • Conceptual development of regional climate servicing(e.g., von Storch et al., 2011, Journal for Environmental Law and Policy) • International workshop on regional climate servicing, in Victoria, Canada, 2011(e.g.,. Reckermann, et al., 2008 EOS Trans. Amer. Geophys. U.) • Experimental practice of regional climate offices in HZG and AWI, initiated in 2006 (HZG) on coastal climate and 2009 (AWI) on polar issues. (Many details, needs extra prsentation) • Assessment of state of climate servicingJones et. al., 2014: Foundations for Decision Making, Chapter 2 of IPCC AR5, WG II. Lead author von Storch, contribution author: Krauss, HZG

36. North German Climate Office@HZG • An institution set up to enable communication between science and stakeholders • that is: making sure that science understands the questions and concerns of a variety of stakeholders • that is: making sure that the stakeholders understand the scientific assessments and their limits. • Typical stakeholders: Coastal defense, agriculture, off-shore activities (energy), tourism, water management, fisheries, urban planning

37. Online since July, 14., 2009 ~ 6500 visitors per year (11/2011 – 11/2013) Average visiting time: 4 minutes 7 pages per visitor on average Most visits during working hours Visitors mostly from Germany But also visitors from USA, Denmark, Switzerland, Austria, Netherlands and others North German Climate Atlas – some user statistics

38. User feedback Main user groups: • Practitioners with no background in climate science. • Practitioners with some background based on previous consultancy (UBA) • Scientists Most frequent misunderstanding: • Climate scenario and weather forecast were understood as the same • Ensemble mean of uncertainty range was interpreted as most probable scenario

39. The CoastDat data set: • Long (60 years) and high-resolution reconstructions of recent offshore and coastal conditions mainly in terms of wind, storms, waves, surges and currents and other variables in N Europe • Scenarios (100 years) of possible consistent futures of coastal and offshoreconditions • extensions – ecological variables, Baltic Sea, E Asia, Laptev Sea • Clients: • Governmental: various coastal agencies dealing with coastal defense and coastal traffic • Companies: assessments of risks (ship and offshore building and operations) and opportunities (wind energy) • General public / media: explanations of causes of change; perspectives and options of changeb GKSS in Geesthacht www.coastdat.de

40. Vier Regionale Klimabüros in der Helmholtz GemeinschaftNetzwerk für regionalen Klimaservice HZG

41. Border-activities elsewhere • CSC • DKK Initiative /Arbeitsgruppe 3 • CliSAPBereich C (Hamburg) • PACES II, Topic 4 • ESKP • Model: National Research Council, USA

42. Summary • Some science generates utility for society, in the form of concepts, data and perspectives. • Other science provides no specific utility. • Scientific excellence and societal utility are hardly correlated. • The issue is often knowledge, sometimes information. • Recognition of alternative knowledge claims, in particular when a post normal situation prevails. • Supply: Transformation from scientific validity to societal utility is non-trivial and needs understanding of societal environment. • Recognition of societal questions as legitimate scientific challenges. • Border organizations needed.