________________________________________________ SEARCH Open Science Meeting Seattle, WA

1. The Freshwater Cycle and its Role in the Pan-Arctic System:Contributions from the NSF-Freshwater Initiative (FWI) ________________________________________________ SEARCH Open Science Meeting Seattle, WA 27-30 October 2003 _________________________ Charles J. Vörösmarty University of New Hampshire

2. Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI) Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying? • Quantify Stocks and Fluxes • Document Changes to the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle Q2: If So, Why? • Understand the Source of the Change: Attribution Q3: What Are the Implications • Develop Predictive Simulations of Feedbacks to the Earth and Human Systems Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study

3. FWI PROJECT THEMES CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH (AO NSF-02-071) • Ocean & Sea Ice • Ackerman/Francis • Falkner • Lee • Proshutinsky • Steele • Tremblay • Snow, Ice, Permafrost • England • Pielke • Yu • Zhang • Human Dimensions • White • Rivers / Land • Hinzman • Kane • Karabanov • Lettenmaier • Peterson • Serreze • Smith • Yang • Atmosphere- • Land- • Ocean • Holland/Wu • Semiletov • Vörösmarty Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

4. NSF-ARCSS Charged Arctic-CHAMP to Help Coordinate FWI • -Oversight via SSC • and FWI All-Hands Meetings Visit the CHAMP Science Management Office Website http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu

5. Peterson et al. 2002 Earth System& Societal Feedbacks From: M. Vellinga; CLIVAR Major Earth System & Societal Feedbacks Change to Freshwater CycleCompromiseTHCReduce Northward Heat TransportEnormous Societal Challenges (e.g. feed 10 billion) Peterson et al. 2002, Science

6. Q: What is the impact of climate change on sea ice? Feedback and System Sensitivity Studies(a la CHAMP) • “Simple” questions asked ---> complex interactions uncovered • Gaps identified • Playing field on which disagreements can arise • Links physics, biogeochemistry, biology

7. Simple Process Models: First Formal Tests of Heuristic Notions Heat Balance Sea Ice THC

8. The Freshwater Cycle Links Every Major Arctic Systems Component -- Change Resonates through System-- • Physics • Biology • Biogeochemistry • Natural variability • Anthropogenic change • Human vulnerability .… and central to the analysis of……. Challenge: To Develop Dynamic Arctic Earth System Models Community Model

9. 5 June 2001 5 June 2001 Surface Soil Moisture (% Saturation) 12 June 2001 12 June 2001 Kuparkuk (AK) 1995 End of Season Conditions High Permafrost Sub-Watershed Fraction of winter precipitation returned to atmosphere End of winter snow water equivalent depth distribution Courtesy of Hinzman et al. Courtesy of Pielke et al.

10. Large-scale sections Boundary current section From: Steele et al. …based on Jones et al. (1998); Steele & Boyd (1998); Proshutinsky et al. (2002); Rigor et al. (2002) FWI/ASOF Oceanographic Studies of Regional Sea Studies From: Falkner et al.

11. Basin Studies of Water Budgets Components and Discharge From: Lettenmaier et al.

12. E-RIMS FRAMEWORK FOR COUPLED PAN-ARCTIC LAND-OCEAN-ATMOSPHIRE STUDIES E-RIMS - enhanced effort - Ability to link land and ocean processes - increase conversations between scientists - Temperature data Domain of the E-RIMS, with some key data sets and proposed products. Runoff contributed from the pan-Arctic land mass is mapped together with variability in the Arctic Ocean. Note plumes of low salinity water associated with inflow through Bering Strait and large river basins of Eurasia and N. America. These anomalies will be analyzed and tracked to "source areas" within the linked atmosphere, land, ice, and ocean system. Gridded fields, basin-specific and pan-Arctic aggregations are planned as operational products. River temperature (lower right) from Russia is one of several new data sets to be incorporated into E-RIMS, in this case supplying an important boundary condition to the ocean model that estimates outflow through the Fram Strait (lower left). A real-time component, expanding our existing hydrographic and NWP archive (top right), is proposed. Through analysis of historical time series, contemporary changes to the Arctic water cycle are placed into broader context. Location of RIMS historical and operational hydrographic stations are shown. R-ArcticNET ArcticRIMS River Discharge Source data: Mark Serreze (CU), Mike Steele (UW), UNH, and government agencies from around the pan-Arctic Courtesy of Vörösmarty et al.

13. A FIRST-ORDER ATTEMPT AT WATER BUDGET CLOSURE • Stocks, residence times • Critical but Uncertain Pathway: Atmospheric • Budget Closure Disparity Large -- Land….1700 km3 y-1 --Ocean….2800 km3 y-1

14. Major FWI Challenges • Integration across Projects • Build toward Systems Synthesis • Assemble “the Basics”/ Test for Mutual Consistency • Integrate Process Understanding into a “Unified View” to Address Feedbacks • Local-->Basin-->Regional-->Pan-Arctic • Entrain Graduate Students into System Synthesis