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The role of international migration in population forecsts

The role of international migration in population forecsts. Rainer Münz NTTS 2017 Satellite Event Challenges in Migration Statistics Brussels, March 13, 2017. Demographic projection

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The role of international migration in population forecsts

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  1. The role of international migration in population forecsts Rainer Münz NTTS 2017 Satellite Event Challenges in Migration Statistics Brussels, March 13, 2017

  2. Demographicprojection Startingpoint: Known/assumedsizeandstructure (age, gender) of a population at a particularmoment in time Size andstructure „multiplied“ by • Fertility • Mortality • Spatialmobility Spatialmobilityincludes • Immigration • Emigration (at different levels: regional, national, continental) At a global level: Immigration = Emigration

  3. Immigration/emigration numbers are not shown Europop: Projected number of births/deaths with and w/o migration, EU-28, 2015–2080 (millions)

  4. Forecasting Europe‘s Population Europop: Actual and projected population by age, EU-28, 2014–2060 (in %)

  5. Person based complex indicator Behaviouralcomponents • Fertility Basis: all births Indicator: Age specificfertilityrates (TFR) • Mortality Basis: all deaths Indicator: Age specificmortalityrates (based on lifetables) • Spatialmobility Basis: ideally all changesofresidenceaccrossborders (oftenunknown) Indicator: Net migration (rates) Alternative: Average number of movements a person will experience during his/her life time. Population based; less complex than TFR + life tables

  6. Challenges • Migration muchlesswellunderstoodthanfertility/mortality • Measured in different waysaccross Europe • Measured not at all in manysending countries

  7. Two types of „errors“ 1) People whoarepresent, but not registerd • Irregularmigrants(irregularentry, overstayers) • Foreignstudents, scholars, seasonallabour 2) People whoareregisterd, but not present • Emigrantswhodid not deregister (negligence, on purpose, politicalspin) • People who die abroadwithoutauthoritiesbeingnotified

  8. Our „work around“ Net migration

  9. Our „work around“ Net migration Defined as: „the difference between immigration to and emigration from a given area during the year. Since many countries either do not have accurate figures on immigration and emigration, or have no figures at all, net migration has to be estimated. It is usually estimated as the difference between the total population change and the natural increase during the year. Net migration gives no indication of the relative scale of the separate immigration and emigration flows to and from a country.“ http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Net_migration&redirect=no

  10. Our „workaround“ Net migration Estimatingnetmigration • Based on incompletedata • Based on the residual method Main comceptualdeficit: - Net migrants do not exist

  11. Existing population projections combine: • highly sophisticated models on fertility, mortality and demographic aging • with a much less sophisticated approach to migration. • For many years migration, especially in the field of international population projections, has been treated as some sort of “foster child”.

  12. Requiem? No. 1: In 1990, Andrei Rogers wrote a requiem for “net migrants, a nonexisting category of individuals” No. 2: In 1993, David Plane proposed burying the fixed-transition-probability migrant (1993). Plane argued that, although migration in multiregional models is formulated as flows, it assumes constancy of emigration rates (formulated as fixed transition probabilities). Assumption: no interaction between sending and receiving countries or regions.

  13. Requiem? Reality in 2017: Concept of net migration still widely used And where this is not the case: Scholars still love the “beauty” of stationary multiregional models with fixed transition probabilities. They allow for concise mathematical analysis with attractive solutions.

  14. Comparison of net migration estimates and projections, 1950-2100

  15. Why does this matter?

  16. Europop: Projected developments of population change components, EU-28, 2015–2050 (thousands) Migration balance more important than natural balance

  17. USCB: Contribution of immigrants and their offspring to US population, 1970-2050 (millions) Cumulative effect

  18. USCB: Projected population of the US, 8 migration scenarios, 2010–2100 (millions) http://www.immigrationeis.org/eis-documents/us-demographic-projections-future

  19. Eurostat: Projected population of EU28, France, Germany and the UK with and w/o migration, 2014–2080 (Index 2014 = 1) Source: Eurostat

  20. Addressing incomplete data • Working on improved data collection • EU: harmonised definition • Alternative data sources (for example: mobile phone data, remittances)

  21. Replacing net migration in projections • Calculating and projecting immigration and emigration separately • At international scale: Reconciling immigration and emigration

  22. Way forward Projecting the population with immigrant background separately • Age • Gender • Countries of origin/destination

  23. Age structure of immigrants by citizenship; 3rd country nationals vs. naturalised immigrants, EU28, in % of total population Source Eurostat Like a separate region

  24. Way forward By default: Estimating the size of recent flows from structure and changes in stock

  25. Stock of international migrants by origin and destination, 2015 Oceania Northern America Africa LatinAmerica Asia Wider Europe Source: Abel and Sanders based on UN Pop. Div.

  26. Assumptions for projection • Intensity of future migration • Affected age groups • Geographic distribution • At global level: Net flow needs to stay at zero Problem: immigration is better documented than emigration

  27. Africa vs. EuropePopulation 1950-2100 1995 Constant rates? Source: UN Pop. Div., WPP

  28. The number of international migrants grows not much quicker than the world population Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population • But! • The number of international migrants has two different determinants: • The intensity of cross-border mobility • The number of sovereign states 1990 2000 2010 2015 Source: UN Population Division

  29. What drives international migration?

  30. Data Analysis Data Analysis What matters most: • Size of migrant networks (resulting from past migration) • Economic attractiveness • Geographical proximity • Cultural proximity • Civil wars, violent conflicts What does not matter (so far): • Demographic pressure

  31. A better understanding of the dynamics cannot not replace plausible scenarios

  32. Final question: Will international migration continue at present levels? Will it increase? Or decrease?

  33. Above income levels of US-$ 13,000 per capita: net-emigration stops Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10) GDP per capita in 2013 Net migration per 1000 inhabitants Data Source:UN; Muenz & Reiterer

  34. Above income levels of US-$ 13,000 per capita: net-emigration stops Annual average net migration per 1000 inhabitants (2005-10) Data Source:UN; Muenz & Reiterer

  35. The relationbetweendevelopmentandmigrationis not linearEmigration vs. immigrationby GDP per capita Source: P. Martin, H. de Haas

  36. Europe between emigration and immigration:The main direction changed only recentlyImmigration minus emigration (= net-migration), 1960-2014 33 years of net immigration 400 years of net emigration Source: Eurostat

  37. The number of international migrants is projected to increase further Absolute numbers and proportion of migrants in total population 1990-2000 growth rate 2000-2010 growth rate 2010-2015 growth rate 1990 2000 2010 2015 2030 United Nations/Population Division

  38. Net migratory flows to the USA1950-2010 (actual), 2015-2100 (different projections), in mn USA Gravity model Linear model UN WPP 2015 projection TRUMP UN WPP 2010 projection xx

  39. Convergence assumption for Europop projections Source: Lanzieri 2008

  40. Europopmigrationmodelling at sub-national level Trend towards equilibrium between inflows and outflows Consideration of competition with other poles of attraction Population ageing Some adjustment for shrinking working populations Projection output: net migration rates at NUTS 1, NUTS 2, NUTS 3 level Source: Lanzieri 2016

  41. Change in % Europop: Projected population change due to net migration, NUTS 2 level, 2015–50 (%)

  42. Europop: Projected developments of population change components, EU-28, 2014–2080 (thousands)

  43. What speaks infavour of declining migration? Assumption of increasing converence Uncertainty

  44. What speaks in favour of continuing migration? Assumption of lasting disparities Common sense expectatons

  45. … so, we need to make a choice

  46. Thank you! rainer.munz@ec.europa.eu

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