Our mission is to provide a blueprint

1. Our mission is to provide a blueprint Our aim is provide a beacon

2. AGENDA • Climate Change • Global Context • Local Context • GCNS Aim & Model • Understanding behaviour barriers • Understanding emissions areas • Finding Solutions - facilitation of • Collective Ownership • Collaboration • Community led solutions

3. How BIG is the problem? Despite 82% UK concern, only 4% public personal activity – Ipsos MORI 2007 7 years left to keep below global 2 °C warming – WWF 2008 Global CO2e is still rising exponentially – IPCC 2008 Only 26% of CDP’s Supply Chain Leadership Collaboration have established greenhouse gas reduction targets so far…and these are often moderate – www.strategicrisk.co.uk 2008 Annual reduction targets need to be 8% to 9% - Tyndell Centre 2007 Even if CO2 emissions stopped tomorrow, we are committed to 1.4 degrees of average global warming

4. Some Very Basic Science … • Incoming shortwave solar radiation warms the earth, which then emits long wave radiation. • Certain gases absorb this energy, and re-emit it back to earth. • This is the greenhouse effect which is causing global warming and climate change

5. Where are global temperatures heading? (Follow the green line on the right!)

6. This map of mountain glacier mass balance changes since 1970 shows thinning in yellow and red, and thickening in blue. 1ºC global warming IMPACTS X

7. 2ºC, 2003 Heat Wave = ‘the norm’

8. 2ºC, Sea Level Rise

9. 2ºC,Ocean Acidification

10. 2ºC global warming - IMPACTS While two degrees of warming will be survivable for most developed country humans, 40% of all other species (plant & animal) alive today may be driven to extinction as climate change wipes out their habitat. And we are getting close to irreversible “tipping points” through positive feedbacks

11. 3ºC Amazon Rain Forest Destruction

12. 3ºC Soil Microbes release CO2 under stress

13. 3ºC: the ‘tipping point’ Combined, these 2 events will create a further 1.5ºC global temp rise. • Increasing areas of planet uninhabitable by drought and heat • Hurricanes increase to Category Six • World food supplies critically endangered • Hundreds of millions of refugees will move towards the mid-latitudes.

14. 4ºC, Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse = 5m sea level rise

15. 4ºC, Methane from Permafrost melt

16. 4ºC, Ice Free Arctic Ocean

17. 5ºC global warming - IMPACTS To understand the implications of 5 ºC of warming, we need to go back 55 million years ago when the Earth experienced a sudden and dramatic global warming.

18. Climate Change Impacts on Scotland PHYSICAL / LAND Flooding, increased frequency, increased intensity Species invasion – e.g. ticks & mosquitoes Coastal erosion HUMAN IMPACTS Food price increases, changing diets Fuel price increases, later fuel shortages Influx global climate change refugees Possible war Growing gap between rich and poor with more severe impacts What are the ripple effect impacts of each of these?

19. The inspiration behindgoingcarbonneutralStirling tipping a nation… (without legislation) …into immediate, mass, multi-faceted voluntary behaviour change So what was the task exactly?

20. Collectively owned Mutually supportive Meaningful & Widespread Evaluated Voluntary personal carbon reduction In order to effect …. …that is…. We need to understand… 6 behaviour barriers.

21. Key Elements of GCNS 1) Understanding carbon reduction behavioural change barriers Because that defines what solutions may look like And the order in which they might be taken up

22. Behaviour barrier, 1 of 6 Plenty of advice…but no support = attitude-behaviour gap We don’t act because: “whilst we know we should probably make some changes to the way we do things, we are always rushing around and don’t remember. We need reminders in the right place, and supportive help that goes right through, in practical terms, to the bitter end…without hassle and cost!” SOLUTION: Each engaged community group acts as its own support infrastructure – each week, through asking ‘who remembered?’, we remind, encourage, cajole and compete with each other, to remember to carry out our carbon cutting action. Infrastructurally, we understand, then coordinate carbon cutters needs with delivery mechanisms.

23. Behaviour barrier, 2 of 6 Social Norms “it’s not socially normal to carry out personal carbon budgeting…I’ll look like a freak (and no-one will like me!)” We don’t act because: GCNS Solution: By asking each engaged community group to talk about their carbon cutting on a weekly basis, we start to normalise the idea of day to day carbon reduction. In addition, we will start to see carbon cutting in our local shops, in our local newspapers, hear about it on our local radio…everywhere we go in Stirling in fact, we will see that others are part of this critical mass project

24. x No social norms 1 tonne COMMUTING It’s not socially normal to say (to your peers and employer): So I need to… “Moving to new offices?”

25. Behaviour barrier, 3 of 6 Aspirations and desires are pro high carbon. We don’t act because: “advertising tells us, everywhere we look, that we will be better off and happier if we have more stuff; and the more amazing the ad, the more hi-carbon the service or product is, it turns out. It’s hard to go against the grain…” SOLUTION: GCNS will explain to businesses that over the next 4 years, GCNS will be creating carbon savvy customers – who will appreciate low carbon offers, and horrified by hi-carbon offers! By engaging business staff communities, hi-carb offers will be swiftly spotted internally and interchanged for localised low carb offers.

26. Aspirational(fun, cooler, smarter, affluent) Non-aspirational(routine, less cool, banal, ‘poorer’) Toyota Land cruiser Bus The Caribbean Skegness Your own parking space HIGHER CARBON LOWER CARBON

27. Behaviour barrier, 4 of 6 Complexity & number of messages We don’t act because: “carbon reduction involves an enormous quantity, variety and complexity of action, we don’t know what to believe, or what to do, so we end up doing nothing” SOLUTION: We put the carbon cutter plan into being – one action per week that everyone takes, and everyone is reminded to take. GCNS will ask participants “what language worked for this activity?” “what reminder mechanism would work better?” ”How else can we help you make this happen?” We will record what tools and practices work for the varying groups, and improve our delivery with this feedback.

28. Behaviour barrier, 5 of 6 Ease of Action We don’t act because: “currently, it’s hard to be a carbon cutter. We need lower carbon goods and services to be easier to find than other products and services, preferable to use, and better priced” SOLUTION: GCNS will work with GCNS communities, bringing them together in annual open days, in order to discover mutual needs that will aid further carbon cutting. These ‘infrastructural demands’ will be assessed for their carbon validity, and then taken to the ‘delivery community’ such as the council & businesses.

29. Non-recyclable so higher lifecycle footprint Lower comparative mileage performance No infrastructure Mileage Issues Global Famine Expensive, ? quality, not ubiquitous, not as good as face to face Same CO2 as planes Not ubiquitous, infringes on personal flexibility Huge set up carbon footprint Impossible to enforce. Slowing traffic increases CO2. Hugely unpopular Not safe Thefts More Expensive Late Crowded Not aspirational. Slow Fragmented Service Need to have the time SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT SOLUTIONS THINGS WE’VE HEARD…PERCEPTIONS? Hybrid Cars Electric Fleet Bio-fuels Tele-communications Hi-Speed trains Car sharing Trams Slower road speed limits Cycling Trains Bus Walking

30. Behaviour barrier, final one Conflicting messaging & non-joined up thinking “currently, there is not enough evidence of ‘joined up thinking’ and worse, a lot of ‘conflicting messaging’ by government, local authorities, media & business…if they can’t be bothered to get it right, why should I?!” We don’t act because: SOLUTION: GCNS works with businesses and public bodies to help them get their own houses in order. Then, with their staff engaged as ‘communities’ we look at businesses’ external activity and messaging, as perceived by the public, and realign it to our area’s low carb aspirations.

31. Key Elements of GCNS 1) Understanding behavioural change barriers 2) Understanding emissions areas & defining targets

32. 12 tonnes 10 tonnes 11 tonnes 6 tonnes Annual 7 tonnes Scottish 8 tonnes CO2 9 tonnes Emissions 1 tonne Per 2 tonnes Head 3 tonnes 4 tonnes Per 5 tonnes Year

33. 1 tonne COMMUTING 1.2 tonnes HYGIENE 0.8 tonne AVIATION EDUCATION 2.5 tonnes HEATING SPACE 1 tonne CLOTHING 0.5 tonne 2 tonnes RECREATION & LEISURE 1.5 tonnes FOOD 1.5 tonnes HOUSEHOLD ELECTRICITY

34. For global climate change to have a hope of remaining under control, what should our emissions be? 2050. World population = 9 billion 2007. World population = 6 billion

35. ….by 2035 1 tonne Per year =

36. Key Elements of GCNS Partners… 1) Understanding behavioural change barriers Communities…all types 2) Understanding emissions areas & defining targets Local Businesses Stirling Council • Finding Solutions. Facilitation of • Collective Ownership • Collaboration • Community led solutions Community Planning Partnerships Local Media

37. How do we engage our partners?

38. STEP 1 We contact them through recognised ambassadors 1° 3° 5° 2° 6° 4° STEP 2 We meet them at their regular group meeting (ease of action) At the end of year one, the group is invited to repeat the process for a second and third year…. STEP 3 We show them the effects of climate change.. STEP 4 ..and ask if they will say ‘YES’! to become part of the Stirling critical mass carbon cutting project STEP 5 We identify the group’s First Year Activator… STEP 6 …with whom we create the group’s FIRST YEAR CARBON CUTTERS PLAN STEP 7 We give up to 6 support sessions throughout the year, overcoming obstacles collectively and collaboratively.

39. Perceived new ‘desire’ , new aspirations & norms Yrs 1 - 3 Smart n’ easy (brain & body trainers) Reduction in conflicting messages YRS 2 & 3 Carbon Crushers More demand = greater ease of action Creates ease of action Immediate ease of action Engenders social norm Large degree of normality Demonstrates joined up thinking 3 year Community Carbon Cutting Plan Yrs 2 & 3: Infrastructural changes +Settlement Open Days ATTITUDE CLOSED BEHAVIOUR

40. What will businesses do? INTERNAL activity • Discover and report scope 1 and 2 emissions (internal fossil fuels burnt and electricity purchased). • Start to demand knowledge on, and reduction of scope 3 emissions (indirect emissions that are a consequence of a company's activities, but which arise from sources that are owned or controlled by others). • Provide a Lifecycle carbon footprint on top services / products • Create an emissions reduction target in line with the dictates of science • Staff engagement, as communities Talk about it talk about it talk about it talk about t talk about it talk about it….

41. What will businesses do? EXTERNAL Activity • Create social norms – for consumers and other businesses • Demonstrate joined-up thinking • Re-adjust aspirations & desires • Ensure non-conflicting messaging • Ensure ultimate ease of action

42. Carbon Cutter Plans Open days Keeping it alive with Positive messaging Key Elements of GCNS Partners… 1) Understanding behavioural change barriers Communities…all types 2) Understanding emissions areas & defining targets Local Businesses Carbon Cutter Plans for staff Stirling Council • Finding Solutions. Facilitation of • Collective Ownership • Collaboration • Community led solutions Internal CR activity Community Planning Partnerships External collaboration Local Media

43. GCNS Carbon Descent Model, the trajectory and what it looks like…. Getting started, with smart and easy carbon brain and body trainers 12 tonnes Making real progress with effective carbon crushers With the collaboration of businesses & the council to help us with infrastructural changes… 6 tonnes 1 tonne So that cutting more carbs becomes easy again 2035 NOW

44. Funding, where and how much • Big Lottery Fund Supporting 21st Century Life programme: £500,000 • The Scottish Government Greener Directorate: £800,000 • WWF-Scotland and Stirling Council Housing Department: £64,000 • There might be funding in years 2 to 4 from LEADER

45. And with that we pay for… • Staff team of 8 for 4 years; • Programme manager • Business engagement • Carbon coach • 3 community engagement and support • Media & communications • Administration

46. Year One: Involved Communities Discussion

47. To do this it has to remove ‘barriers’ and ‘resistances’ … • Awareness – yes, support to make changes, no! Leaving “attitude-behaviour gap” • No social normality for everyday carbon reduction activity • Aspirations & desires – not low carbon – quite the reverse! • Too many messages – turns people off • Currently not easy to take carbon reduction action • Too many examples of non-joined up thinking & conflicting messaging