Climate Change in the Kawarthas March 2014 Part 1

1. Climate Change in the Kawarthas March 2014Part 1

2. Nature in the Kawarthas is changing The climate is warming: 2010 – 2014 – 40 out of 48months warmer than 1971 – 2000 average (83%) Changes in dates of events in nature (e.g., leaf out) Changes in numbers and kinds of some species (e.g., opossum) More extreme events (March 2012) Tonight’s talk… Will focus on events with likely or possible climate change connection What we are seeing now Extreme events of note Concern for the future

3. Kawarthas Kawarthas 2010 OMNR Report – Current and Projected Future Climatic Conditons for Ecoregions in Ontario Temperatures similar to s. Pennsylvania on the way

4. Arrival of southern bird species “Southern birds” have increased in number and have expanded their range northwards over recent decades Mourning Dove – edge of Shield Northern Cardinal – Bancroft, Minden Hooded Warbler Hooded Warbler – Ganaraska Forest Red-bellied Woodpecker

5. The arrival of the Virginia Opossum Virginia Opossums, a southern species, are extending their range into the Kawarthas Gannon Narrows – December 2012 Johnston Dr. Ptbo – Feb. 2014

6. Flying squirrel hybridization With warmer winters, Southern Flying Squirrels are moving north into the Kawarthas and some are mating with Northern Flying Squirrels, a different species Hybrid squirrels are becoming increasingly common Being explained as a possible effect of climate change akin to Polar Bears & Grizzlies mating ; also seen with Black-capped & Carolina chickadees (Trent University/MNR study 2009)

7. Butterflies: Southerners on the march northward Southern (Carolinian) species have expanded their range northwards over the last decade Giant Swallowtail now common in Kawarthas. Was restricted to extreme SW Ontario Coldest winter temperature determines northern limit In years with long, hot summers, two broods of some species Northern True Katydid (long-horned grasshopper)may be next southerner to arrive. Giant Swallowtail – Canada’s biggest butterfly Northern True Katydid Delaware Skipper

8. Some short-distance migrants are, on average, returning earlier as spring becomes earlier Common Merganser Red-winged Blackbird American Robin Great Blue Heron Hooded Merganser

9. An earlier nesting season Earlier springs are resulting in an earlier start to the nesting season for resident birds & short-distance migrants May mean more more young One large-scale study showed that birds are laying eggs up at an average rate of 6.6 days earlier per decade Mourning Dove

10. An earlier spring frog chorus Spring Peeper • Peak calling period of early breeders is now 10 – 20 days earlier than in 1995. Spring Peepers, Wood Frogs, Chorus Frogs and Northern Leopard Frogs (MNR study published in Herpetological Conservation and Biology, 2012) Chorus Frog Salamanders are mating earlier, too.

11. Earlier flowering of treesAlberta study: Flower buds on Trembling Aspens now opening 2 weeks earlier Carolina Poplar Red Maple Silver Maple Speckled Alder

12. Earlier spring wildflower bloom In recent years, peak bloom has been two to three weeks earlier than normal Hepatica Coltsfoot White Trillium Wild Columbine

13. An earlier black fly emergence Black flies are now in peak numbers in late April through early May In the 1960s, peak numbers were not until mid- to late May Traditionally, May 24th Weekend saw the worst black fly conditions

14. Earlier and more abundant tree pollen With climate change, tree pollen is emerging roughly two weeks earlier in the spring in much of North America. Pollen counts are expected to more than double by 2040. Many people are experiencing more serious allergy symptoms .

15. A marked increase in invasive species Common Reed (Phragmites) Purple Loosestrife Dog-strangling Vine Garlic Mustard

16. An increase in tree disease Butternut – canker (fungus) American Beech – beech scale (insect and fungus) – milder winters may be allowing faster expansion north Ashes – Emerald Ash borer