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This lesson delves into the critical concepts of screening tests within the context of diagnosis. It explains key metrics such as sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), and positive predictive value (PPV), highlighting their significance in evaluating test effectiveness. By employing Bayes’ theorem, we illustrate how positive results can influence the probabilities of having a condition. Using sample calculations, we demonstrate how these metrics, such as Se=.95 and Sp=.90, impact clinical decision-making regarding potential conditions and false positives/negatives.
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Lesson #10 Screening Tests
D D’ TP + FP FN - TN = P( + | D ) Sensitivity = Se = P( - | D’ ) Specificity = Sp
95 20 5 180 Ca no Ca + - 100200 Se = .95 Sp = .90
95 200 5 1800 Ca no Ca + - 1002000 Se = .95 Sp = .90
Positive Predictive Value (PPV) PPV = P( D | + ) Not the same as Se!
The simplest form of Bayes’ Theorem is: PPV = P(D | +)
Se p 1-Sp 1-p PPV = P(D | +)
PPV Se = .95 Sp = .90 p = .02 = .162
Ca no Ca 95 95 200 20 + 5 5 1800 180 - 100200 Ca no Ca + - 1002000
+ P(Ca and +) = P(TP) Se = .95 = (.02)(.95) = .019 Ca .05 .02 - P(+) = .117 + .98 P(No Ca and +) = P(FP) .10 = (.98)(.10) = .098 No Ca Sp = .90 -