Decision Making in Groups

1. Decision Making in Groups

2. Outline • I. Problems in Decision Making • Failure to share information • Risky shift/polarization • II. Video: GroupThink

3. Are Group Decisions Always Good? • Of course not. • Why do groups sometimes fail?

4. Information Sharing Problems in Groups • Fail to pool unshared information effectively • Tendency to oversample shared information • This tendency is exacerbated in tasks without ‘correct’ decisions • Leaders can prompt members to revealed unshared information

5. Group Exercise Completely Disagree Completely Agree • Using the scale above, indicate your agreement with the following statement (write your name on your paper): The final exam in this course should be an essay exam rather than multiple choice/short answer. 1 5 10

6. Groups: Moderating or Polarizing? • Common belief: • Groups exert a moderating effect on their members • Groups more moderate decision makers than individuals • But then… • In the early 1960s researchers questioned this assumption

7. Risky Shift Research • Choice Dilemmas Questionnaire (CDQ) • 12 life-situation problems involving a central person with a choice between more or less risky courses of action. • The participant's task is to choose the lowest likelihood of success he or she would demand before recommending the risky alternative. • SS complete the CDQ alone, after discussing it with a group, and again alone

8. Risky Shift Research • Comparing individual responses to group responses: • SS generally advocated riskier decisions in groups! • This change carried over to later individual choices • This is the RISKY SHIFT

9. Risky Shift Research • Researchers found risky shifts on many attitudes, beliefs, values, judgements and perceptions. • Some researchers found a different kind of shift: • Shift toward caution • Risky shift is part of a larger process!

10. Group Polarization • Discussion leads to group polarization: • Judgments made after group discussion will be more extreme in the same direction as the average of individual judgments prior to discussion. • The direction of the polarization depends on the group members’ original viewpoints. • Thus, before we can predict how the discussion will polarize the group, we must know the initial opinions of the members.

11. Group Polarization Risky Shift Cautious Shift 1 5 9 Caution Risk 7 3 C & D A B E F

12. Why? • Why do we shift our judgments to match the position that our group initially values? • Two theoretical explanations: • Persuasive arguments theory • Social comparison theory

13. Persuasive Arguments Theory • After discussion, we can generate more arguments favoring the more valued alternative. • With the CDQ, arguments favoring risk rather than caution are more plentiful.

14. Social Comparison Theory • During group discussion people actively compare themselves with others • When they discover that some members of the group have stronger attitudes than they do, they begin endorsing more extreme positions.

15. Groupthink …mode of thinking in a cohesive, insulated, high success, prestige group with strong minded, powerful leader (with Praetorian Guard). Desire for unanimity overrides motivation to evaluate alternatives properly. • Illusion of invulnerability • Assumptions of morality • Realisations • Stereotyping • Self-censorship • Illusions of unanimity • Mind-guarding • Direct pressure Consequences • discussion curtailed, limited alternatives • limits on information seeking and re-evaluation of facts • outsiders less credible so fail to import expert advice • weak contingency planning

16. Video: Groupthink