Coastal Modeling – Indispensable Design tool

1. Coastal Modeling – Indispensable Design tool J. W. Kamphuis Queen’s University Kingston, ON, Canada K7L 3N6 This paper will be posted on your website J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

2. Coastal Modeling – Indispensable Design tool 1. Coastal Design 2. The Learning Curve 3. How do we proceed? 4. Integration J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

3. 1. Coastal Design • Complex • Use of Models • Uncertainties J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

4. Coastal Design 1a. Complex • Processes are difficult to comprehend and not clearly understood. • Bottom shear stress • wave impact and energy dissipation • erosion, accretion • transport of sediment, pollutants, nutrients. • Designs are subject to difficult combinations of inputs • water levels, waves, tides currents and wind • Model outputs are difficult to interpret • morphology, environmental impact, water quality, etc. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

5. Coastal Design 1b. Use of Models Traditional Design Desk Study Interpretation Knowledge (Theory and Experience), Prototype Data Preliminary Design Modeling Design Post- Implementation Monitoring Implementation Trial and Error ! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

6. Coastal Design Desk Study Approval Contemporary Design Knowledge (Theory and Experience) and Prototype Data Post- Implementation Design Preliminary Design Preliminary Design Preliminary Design Modeling Modeling Modeling Design Implementation Approval Trial and Error ! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

7. Coastal Design Desk Study Approval Knowledge (Theory and Experience) and Prototype Data Post- Implementation Design Preliminary Design Preliminary Design Preliminary Design Modeling Modeling Modeling Design Implementation Models: A tool for design optimization through trial and error Approval Trial and Error ! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

8. Coastal Design 1c. Uncertainties • The reason for the trial and error is the high uncertainties in: • Data • Understanding of coastal processes • Design by simply combining existing knowledge with data (“desk study” in the figure) can only produce very approximate answers – conservative designs. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

9. Coastal Design Uncertainties • To improve design, uncertainties must be reduced in three areas: • data, • understanding of the coastal processes • modeling techniques. • Moreover, clients, stakeholders, legislators, lawyers, etc. continue to press for (essentially zero) uncertainty in our design and in our understanding of the environment. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

10. Coastal Design Uncertainties • Further, acceptable levels of uncertainty have been reduced rapidly with time and hence reduction of uncertainties has become urgent. • But, is major reduction of uncertainty even possible? Also, it is a difficult task, since our tools were developed for an earlier time (BL)*[1] when uncertainties were accepted as part of life *Before Lawyers J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

11. Coastal Design Growth of Uncertainty Primary Production Fish, Birds, Mammals Fisheries, etc Sediment, Morphology Uncertainty Flow Flow Near-Field Far-Field Site J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

12. Coastal Design Model Domains Traditional Models Primary Production Fish, Birds, Mammals Fisheries, etc Sediment, Morphology Uncertainty Flow Near-Field Far-Field Site J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

13. Coastal Design Model Domains New Models Primary Production Fish, Birds, Mammals Fisheries, etc Sediment, Morphology Uncertainty Flow Near-Field Far-Field Site J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

14. 2. The Learning Curve J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

15. Learning (or Development) Curve Oops ! Development (Knowledge, Religion, Business) Rapid Progress Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

16. Learning Curve Ages of the Learning Curve Old age Development (Knowledge, Religion, Business) Maturity Infancy Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

17. Learning Curve ? ? The Learning Curve of Knowledge Postmodern Modern Era Enlightenment Knowledge Yes. we can ! Time 1700 1600 2000 1800 1900 J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

18. Ages of Knowledge Learning Curve{+ Kuhn (1977)} Science becomes subculture (talks to itself) Work is addressed to peers and adjudicated by peers Challenges are internally imposed (Improvement of theories, validating paradigm) Old age Knowledge Pressing problems are solved Development of sophisticated theories Paradigm is articulated Maturity Solution of pressing practical problems Much empiricism Infancy Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

19. Learning Curve Paradigm Shift Paradigm Shift (Sharp Break with the Old) Development (Knowledge, Religion, Business) Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

20. Learning Curve Learning Curve - Photography Digital Colour Photography Film Plates Paradigm Shift Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

21. Learning Curve Possible Decline Paradigm Shift Development (Knowledge, Religion, Business) Knowledge and development can decline after shift Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

22. Coastal Learning Curves ?? Today 1970 Development (% of potential) 100 Physical Modeling Numerical Modeling 75 50 Process Knowledge (Theory) Field Data Collection 25 Time 0 1910 1950 1930 1970 1990 2010 J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

23. Learning Curve Today 1970 • 1970: • Learning curves are all quite steep, except for the learning curve for Physical Modelling. But it had produced the major tool of coastal engineering design. • The steepness of the numerical modeling, process knowledge and field measurement curves resulted from the introduction of computers. Development (% of potential) 100 Physical Modeling Numerical Modeling 75 50 Process Knowledge (Theory) Field Data Collection 25 Time 0 1910 1950 1930 1970 1990 2010 J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

24. Learning Curve • 1970: • To advance in 1970, it made sense to concentrate on the steepest learning curves. Numerical modeling, process theory and field measurement methods and instrumentation were developed at the cost of physical modeling. • We took full advantage of the opportunities provided by the computer. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

25. Learning Curve Today 1970 • 2010: • All learning curves are quite flat. • This is the “Old Age” of Coastal Engineering • Therefore, we can not - must not - continue along the old paths followed since 1970. Development (% of potential) 100 Physical Modeling Numerical Modeling 75 50 Process Knowledge (Theory) Field Data Collection 25 Time 0 1910 1950 1930 1970 1990 2010 J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

26. Another View of Coastal Learning Curve ? Paradigm Shift ?? (Introduction of computers) Development (Knowledge, Religion, Business) Decline in knowledge and development of Physical Modeling Time J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

27. 3. How do we proceed? J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

28. Proceed? • Without question, the Numerical Model has become the tool of choice in today’s Coastal Engineering design. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

29. Proceed? • Rapid advancement can only occur through a paradigm shift • we should be so fortunate! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

30. Proceed? • In the meantime, to advance at all (to be able to deal with the present and future design complexities, uncertainties and the approvals process) we need a concerted effort on all fronts – process knowledge (theory), physical modeling, numerical modeling, field measurement. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

31. Proceed? • We must take advantage of the particular strengths of each element. • We must integrate science and engineering, re-integrate theory and practice and integrate all our tools, people and facilities. • We must have (more?) open, frank communication between ‘silos of expertise’ and generate (more?) mutual appreciation, understanding and help. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

32. Proceed? • To be able to solve practical problems, we must eventually (further?) break down the various ‘expert silos’ and revert to more generalist coastal engineering. • Very difficult, since career advancement is generally based on specialization, publication, etc. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

33. 4. Integration(of expertise, tools and people) J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

34. Integration 4a. Closer (physical) integration of cultures 1. Theory ↔ Practice J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

35. (physical) integration of cultures Integration 2. University education ↔ engineering: • Define what we want in an engineering education – theory + application + problem solving + skills. • Interaction on the shop floor – Students and Professors spend time regularly in industry – “Scholarships and sabbaticals in practice, etc.”. • Get engineers into the universities “Engineers in Residence, Educational leaves, etc.” • Industrial Academies: e.g. Coastal software courses run by the software developers are a great idea to be further explored. Such courses must to be technically broad and teach theory as well as skills. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

36. (physical) integration of cultures Integration 3. Physical ↔ Numerical Modelers This is happening. 4. Physical Modelers - Join forces, co-operate, share facilities and expertise. HYDRALAB is an excellent example. Problematic because of intellectual property and perceived leading positions. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

37. (physical) integration of cultures Integration Comment • This integration will cost money. • Therefore, we must immediately be able to show added value: • Better, more relevant education, • More competent engineers, • Shorter project approval periods, • Academic rewards for engineering as well as research, • etc, etc, etc. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

38. Integration Finally: Integrated Modeling • Numerical models are it! • These models are usually are quite integrated with theoretical development. • But the ‘users’ are not! • Numerical models need to be more integrated with data acquisition and with physical models (another type of data acquisition) • Hybrid Modeling. • What do we mean? J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

39. Integration Hybrid Modeling Physical Model Physical Model Physical Model(s) Numerical Model(s) Usual Interpretation Prototype Measurements Input Monitoring Cal.-Ver. Output J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

40. Integration Hybrid Modeling Computational Module Physical Model Physical Model Physical Model(s) Numerical Model(s) My Interpretation Prototype Measurements Input Monitoring Cal.-Ver. Output J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

41. Integration Hybrid Modeling Prototype Data Physical Model(s) Computational Module Numerical Model Integration ! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

42. Integration Hybrid Modeling Comment • Our models must be validated properly. • If this cannot be done by Field Measurements alone, calibrate and verify with results from large process experiments. • Improve Field Measurements (more and better data) by: • Reduction of mobilization and other costs • Making experiments more transportable • Use new or different technologies • Develop some common standards J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

43. Integration Hybrid Modeling Therefore:Hybrid Modeling =Field Measurements + Physical Modeling + Numerical Model + Computational Module • Level 2000 Models • Composite Models J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

44. Integration Level 2000 Model • Far field is modelled numerically. • Near field is NM or PM with far field introduced as boundary conditions • Any PMs are of small prototype sections • Very Large Physical Models (VLPM) can achieve n = 1 to 5. • n = 1 to 5 is already possible in oscillating tunnels and wave flumes; we need a basin. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

45. Integration Level 2000 Model Prototype Data Input Cal-Ver Monitoring Computational Module Model Output B.C for PM B.C from NM Input Output Far Field Numerical Model Near Field Physical Model B.C for VLPM B.C for NM Output Near Field VLPM Near Field Numerical Model B.C for VLPM J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

46. Integration Level 2000 Model Very Large Physical Models (Aside) • Needed to: • Advance understanding (scientific justification) • Reduce scale and laboratory effects • Provide “Field Measurements” under controlled, repeatable conditions • But • Who will build them? • Are they economically justified? • Commercially not viable ! J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

47. Integration Level 2000 Model And…. • VLPM experiments are like field experiments: • Extensive planning and long lead times • Collective exhaustion and recovery of year(s)? • Therefore extensive downtime of facility • Financing for • Experiments? • Facilities? • Downtime? J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

48. Integration Level 2000 Model Therefore…. • We want only one or two excellent, world class VLPM facilities (rather than a number of inadequate or barely adequate, locally financed facilities). • Given the economic environment and recent history, the success of this approach is in doubt. • What else can we do? J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

49. Integration Prototype Data Input Cal-Ver Monitoring Computational Module Process Model Composite Model Output Model Results B.C. J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool

50. Integration Composite Model • Process models are • Physical or numerical • models must be trustworthy representations • simple, inexpensive, easy to understand tests • generic tests and test results • repeatable results • Process model results form the “bricks” J.W. Kamphuis Coastal Modeling Tool