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Chance: The (Surprising) Secrets of Luck, Randomness and Probability

Chance: The (Surprising) Secrets of Luck, Randomness and Probability. Martin Kaefer Katherine Herbst Nicolas Kalfa. What do we enjoy ?. Le Cube Orange. Things that are beautiful. What do we enjoy ?. T hings that are shocking. What do we enjoy ?. Questioning Paradigms.

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Chance: The (Surprising) Secrets of Luck, Randomness and Probability

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  1. Chance: The (Surprising) Secrets of Luck, Randomness and Probability Martin Kaefer Katherine Herbst Nicolas Kalfa

  2. What do we enjoy ? Le Cube Orange Things that are beautiful

  3. What do we enjoy ? Things that are shocking

  4. What do we enjoy ? Questioning Paradigms

  5. Cloacal Exstrophy Patient: Provide Urinary Continence at Birth Continent Reservoir with APV 16 operations (6 urological) + Renal Transplant

  6. Cloacal Exstrophy Patient: Keep them Incontinent at Birth No Additional Urinary Tract Operations

  7. What do we enjoy ? Experiencing and understanding things that are counterintuitive

  8. Green Apple (+ Helium)

  9. Goal: To see the world more clearly

  10. What do I enjoy ? Winning!

  11. Winning!

  12. Audience Response Keep Score of how many you get right (Honor system) Prize will be handed out at the end of the session

  13. XXXXXX Goal: To see the world more clearly

  14. Why might we not see the world clearly ? Swedish Doctor Hans Rosling

  15. Picture of book factfullness

  16. #1 Questions from Hans Worldwide, 30 year old men have spent 10 years in school on average, how many years have women of the same age spent in school? 9 years 6 years 3 years

  17. Questions from Hans Worldwide, 30 year old men have spent 10 years in school on average, how many years have women of the same age spent in school? 9 years 6 years 3 years

  18. #2 Questions from Hans Where does the majority of the world population live? Low Income Countries Middle Income Countries High Income Countries

  19. Questions from Hans Where does the majority of the world population live? Low Income Countries Middle Income Countries High Income Countries

  20. #3 Questions from Hans In the last 20 years the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has? Almost Doubled Remained Same Almost Halved

  21. Questions from Hans In the last 20 years the proportion of the world population living in extreme poverty has? Almost Doubled Remained Same Almost Halved

  22. #4 Questions from Hans Global climate experts believe that over the next 100 years the average temperature will on average? Get Warmer Remain the Same Get Colder

  23. Questions from Hans Global climate experts believe that over the next 100 years the average temperature will on average? Get Warmer Remain the Same Get Colder

  24. #5 Questions from Hans What is the life expectancy of the world today? 50 years 60 years 70 years

  25. Questions from Hans What is the life expectancy of the world today? 50 years 60 years 70 years ?

  26. 187 Recognized Types Instinct to Generalize

  27. Why might we not see the world clearly? Fall Victim to Bias

  28. Why might we not see the world clearly? Fall Victim to Bias Anecdote?

  29. Why might we not see the world clearly? Fall Victim to Bias Understanding that Bias Exists

  30. Why might we not see the world clearly? Fall Victim to Bias Depend on Intuition Anecdote?

  31. Why might we not see the world clearly? Fall Victim to Bias Depend on Intuition Statistics

  32. And this is why we should care about statistics !!!!

  33. “There are lies, damned lies and statistics”

  34. Massaging the Data

  35. Massaging the Data

  36. Gerolamo Cardona 1501-1576

  37. A True “Renaissance Man” Medicine* Mathematics Physics Astrology Philosophy Architecture Religion Music The Combination Lock The Gimbel

  38. A True “Renaissance Man” Medicine* Mathematics Physics Astrology Philosophy Architecture Religion Music Gambling

  39. Gambling So there is one general rule, namely, that we should consider the whole circuit, and the number of those casts which represents in how many ways the favorable result can occur and compare that number to the rest of the circuit, and according to that proportion should the mutual wagers be laid so that one may contend on equal terms

  40. Gambling If r is the number of favorable outcomes and s is the number of unfavorable outcomes Then the corresponding probability is r/(r+s)

  41. r/(r+s)

  42. #6 Chance of rolling a 6 1/3 1/4 1/6 0

  43. Chance of rolling a 6 1/3 1/4 1/6 0 1/1+5 = 1/6

  44. #7 Chance of rolling a double 6 1/6 1/18 1/36 1/72

  45. Chance of rolling a double 6 1/6 1/18 1/36 1/72

  46. Cardona’s Formula Independent Events Multiply the Probabilities Chance of rolling a double 6 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36 or (1/6)2

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