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Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns. March 23, 2010. How predictable are elections?. Economic conditions Government popularity Past performance. Forecasting British Elections. Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198.
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Issues, the Economy and Character in Campaigns March 23, 2010
How predictable are elections? • Economic conditions • Government popularity • Past performance
Forecasting British Elections Belanger (2005) “A Political Economy Forecast for the 2005 British General Election” BJPIR 7: 191-198
The Forecast Actual result: Labour 35%
Another Forecast of the 2005 British Election Actual result: Labour 356 Seats; Conservatives 198 Seats; Liberal Democrats 52 seats Source: Whiteley (2005) “Forecasting Seats from Votes in British General Elections” BJPIR 7:165-173.
US Elections Abramowitz (2008) “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election with the Time-for-Change Model” PS: Political Science & Politics 41(4): 691-695
The 2008 Election Actual result: Obama 53%
British Voting intentions (2005-10) See www.ukpollingreport.co.uk
Enlightenment Theory • Campaigns “educate” voters • Campaigns activate “fundamentals” such as performance evaluations, group characteristics, party cues...
For issues to matter in an election • Candidates/parties must differ • Prospective voters must perceive the differences • They must be correct about the difference
On the other hand... • There are incentives for candidates to obfuscate • Prospective voters are often ignorant of where candidates/parties stand • Individuals’ views on different issues may not point to the same preference
Issue Ownership • Parties build up reputations in particular policy areas • Parties come to “own” these issues • Try to make elections about the issues they “own” • “Old” vs. “New?” issues
When are issues likely to be more/less important? • When parties are far apart • If parties/candidates successfully “cross-pressure” voters • When candidates talk about them • When media focus on them
The Economy • Retrospective or prospective? • Egocentric or sociotropic? • Is it affected by institutional clarity of responsibility? • Is a good economy as influential as a bad economy? • Does political knowledge affect the relationship?
When is the economy likely to be more/less important? • When parties are far apart • When responsibility is clear • When times are tough • When candidates talk about it • When media focus on it
Valence Issues • Issues that are uniformly liked or disliked as opposed to a position issue on which opinion is divided. • Valence issues are less demanding • Corruption, competence, honesty, integrity • Assessments about leadership performance
Character • Competence • Integrity • Leadership • Empathy
Brown’s Public Image YouGov: Thinking about Prime Minister Gordon Brown, which of the following qualities do you think he has? Sticks to what he believes in, Strong, Decisive, Good in a a crisis, Honest, In touch with the concerns of ordinary people, A natural leader, Charismatic, None of these, Don’t know
British Elections: Valence Politics Leadership evaluations Party identification Perceptions of competence Economy
Summing it Up: What matters? • The economy • The issues • Character