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European growth outturns disappoint in fourth quarter

The External Environment for Developing Countries February 2010 The World Bank Development Economics Prospects Group. European growth outturns disappoint in fourth quarter. growth of real GDP, ch % saar. Source: National Agencies. Industrial countries.

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European growth outturns disappoint in fourth quarter

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  1. The External Environment for Developing CountriesFebruary 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

  2. European growth outturns disappoint in fourth quarter growth of real GDP, ch% saar Source: National Agencies.

  3. Industrial countries

  4. U.S. GDP growth jumps 5.7% in Q4-09 on stocks, investment and exports growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  5. Improvements in labor markets continue to underpin increases in household outlays change in employment (‘000, 3mma) [L]; retail sales x autos, ch% (saar) [R] retail x autos [R] change in employment [L] Source: U.S. Departments of Labor and Commerce.

  6. U.S. exports up on increased overseas demand- net-X likely to add to growthexport and import volumes, ch% saar Source: U.S. Department of Commerce.

  7. Japan’s GDP regains dynamic in Q4-09 on turn in capex to positive growth growth of real GDP, and contributions to growth in percentage points Source: Japan Cabinet Office, EPA.

  8. Tankan for fourth quarter underlined a likely pick-up in investment business conditions dispersion indices Source: Bank of Japan.

  9. Japan’s orders and exports revive in the last months of 2009machinery orders, production and export volumes ch% (saar) Source: Japan- METI.

  10. Euro-Area growth held to 0.3% in Q4-09 on flat outturns for Germany growth of real GDP, ch% saar Source: EuroStat.

  11. European unemployment escalates continuing to dampen household spending Euro Area unemployment rate (%) [L]; retail sales volume, ch% (3mma, y/y) [R] unemployment rate [L] retail sales [R] Source: Eurostat.

  12. German factory orders hit hard leading to weaker output growthexport orders, manufacturing production, ch% (saar) Source: Bundesbank.

  13. Industrial production

  14. Eurozone lost growth momentum in the fourth quarter on weak domestic demand industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data.

  15. BICS production momentum supported by strong domestic and external demand industrial production (percent change, saar) Source: World Bank calculations based on Thomson Datastream data.

  16. European and African emerging markets factory PMI above 50 “growth mark” in January Index sa, 50+ = Expansion Source: JPMorgan-Chase.

  17. International trade

  18. Imports by the United States and China revive on fiscal stimulus measures value of imports, year-over-year percent change Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Haver Analytics.

  19. Increasing demand for capital- and consumer durable goods underpins exports of manufacturesManufacturing exports in value terms, year-over-year % change Source: Haver Analytics.

  20. European exports boost region’s trade surplus to 5 year peakEuro Area exports & imports, ch% saar, and trade balance in billion euros Source: EuroStat.

  21. Oil prices

  22. Crude oil prices relatively flat in recent months $/bbl WTI Brent Dubai Source: Thomson/Datastream and DEC Prospects Group.

  23. OECD total oil stocksdays of forward consumption Source: IEA and DECPG.

  24. OPEC spare capacity (mb/d) Source: IEA and DECPG.

  25. Non-oil commodity prices

  26. Agriculture prices buoyed by strong gains in rubber and sugar (Index 2000=100) Source: DECPG.

  27. Metals prices fall sharply in early 2010 $/ton Zinc Lead Aluminum Source: LME and DECPG.

  28. Metals stocks continue to increaseas markets remain in surplus $/ton ‘000 tons Copper price LME stocks Source: LME and DECPG.

  29. International Finance

  30. Bonds underpin January flows Source: DECPG.

  31. Sovereign debt default risk has soarednotably for several EU countries Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.

  32. EM equities underperform mature markets over 2010 to date Local currency returns by period *through February 15 Source: Bloomberg and DECPG staff calculations.

  33. Currencies

  34. Euro down 6.5% vs dollar in the month on Greek sovereign debt plight USD per Euro (inverse) [Left] and Yen per USD [right] USD/Euro (inverse) yen/USD Source: Thomson/Datastream.

  35. Euro cross rates vary by trade partner broadly based on economic conditions Negative sign implies decline in local currency vs euro Source: Thomson/Datastream and World Bank.

  36. The External Environment for Developing CountriesFebruary 2010The World BankDevelopment EconomicsProspects Group

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