Sustainable Development Prospects for North Africa :

1. Sustainable Development Prospects for North Africa: Lessons of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Professor Anthony Nyong Ad Hoc Experts Meeting Sustainable Development in North Africa: Experiences and Lessons Tunisia, 18-21 November 2007

2. Outline of Presentation • Summary of IPCC Report on Impacts and Vulnerability for Africa • Implications for Sustainable Development in North Africa

3. Summary of Climate Change Vulnerability and Impacts

4. Africa’s Vulnerability • AFRICA, most vulnerable continent • Current and projected climate • Current and projected multiple stresses

5. Current and Projected Climate • High annual and inter-annual variability • Mean increase of 3 – 4 degrees C between 2080 and 2099 • Significant decline in precipitation along Mediterranean coast, northern Sahara and Western Sahel • Increase in drought and flood frequencies and intensities. • Significant increase in semi arid/arid lands. • More hot days and heat waves

6. Current Multiple Stresses • Low income and GDP • Desertification • Soil Erosion • High population growth rate • High urbanization rates • Declining per capita agricultural production • Extensive deforestation

7. Freshwater Stress & Scarcity - 2025 Projected run-off by 2050 Projected Impacts • Water Resources • Substantial decline in run-off • Increased water stress • Increased evapotranspiration and water salinity • Reduced water table • Increased potential for ‘water wars’

8. Sea Level Rise • Coastal erosion • Intrusion of sea water into land • Economic loss from destruction of infrastructure and other resources • Loss of livelihoods

9. Temp and Precipitation Variables Predicted yields (kg/ha) Impacts (%) Current Temp and precipitation 747.30 0 Current temp + 1.50C + -10% precipitation 499.81 -33.11 Current temp + 1.50C + -20% precipitation 371.46 -50.29 Current temp + 3.60C + -10% precipitation 333.01 -55.44 Current temp + 3.60C + -20% precipitation 204.66 -72.61 • Agriculture • Reduced crop growth period and growing areas • Declining yields with food insecurity • More expenditure on food imports • Livestock production declines with reduced quality of rangelands + heat stress

10. Energy • Reduced energy production from reduced runoff • Increased energy demand • Tourism • Increased heat index • Degraded beaches • Reduced tourism inflows

11. Desertification • Increase in extent and severity of desertification • Enormous cost implications • Public health • Malnutrition • Respiratory illness from heat and pollution • Cholera from polluted water • Risk of other vector-borne diseases • Increased mortality from climate disasters

12. WHO Estimates of Extra Deaths (per million People) from Climate Change in 2000

13. Biodiversity • In Tunisia,rising temperatures could contribute to significant loss in food plants and breeding waterfowl • Possible disappearance of nationally important fisheries. • Up to 50% loss in plant species • Increase in forest fires • Forest fires could introduce invasive species that lead to more forest fires.

14. Implications for Sustainable Development

15. Pillars of Sustainable Development • Environmental • Economic • Social • All Captured in the MDGs • Climate change threat to achieving the MDGs and other developmental goals

16. Falling agricultural output and deteriorating conditions in rural areas caused by climate change will directly increase poverty of households in many countries. • Climate change and variability cuts the revenues and increases the spending of nations, worsening their budget situation. • Strategies to manage the risks and impacts of an adverse climate can lock people into long-term poverty traps.

17. Extreme weather events can – and do – affect growth rates in developing countries. Climate change presents a greater threat still. • Slower growth could cause an increase in poverty and child mortality relative to a world without climate change. • Under a high-climate-change scenario,the mean cost of climate change is predicted to be 2.7% of GDP in Africa by 2100.

18. Climate-driven reduction in GDP would increase no of people below the $2 a day poverty line by 2100 (100 million in Africa), and raise the child mortality rate. • Greater resource scarcity, desertification, risks of droughts and floods, and rising sea levels could drive many millions of people to migrate – a last-resort adaptation for individuals, but one that could be very costly to them and the world. • Drought and other climate-related shocks may spark conflictand violence, as they have done already in many parts of Africa.

19. What Way Forward? • Adaptation is going on but insufficient • Enhance resilience of rural communities • Improved integrated management of climate-related impacts • Synchronization of many related conventions • Mainstream climate into development, in PRACTICE