1 / 25

SUSTRUS Results from a sustainability model for Russia

SUSTRUS Results from a sustainability model for Russia. Christophe Heyndrickx (TML) Victoria Alexeeva-Talebi (ZEW) Natalia Tourdyeva (CEFIR). Overview. Sustainable Russia or SUSTRUS Overview of project results Conclusions. Overview. Sustainable Russia or SUSTRUS

cherie
Download Presentation

SUSTRUS Results from a sustainability model for Russia

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. SUSTRUSResults from a sustainability model for Russia Christophe Heyndrickx (TML) Victoria Alexeeva-Talebi (ZEW) Natalia Tourdyeva (CEFIR) SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  2. Overview • Sustainable Russia or SUSTRUS • Overview of project results • Conclusions SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  3. Overview • Sustainable Russia or SUSTRUS • Overview of project results • Conclusions SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  4. Sustainable Russia EU Sustainable development framework has four objectives • Environmental protection • Social equity and cohesion • Economic prosperity • Meeting international responsibilities Russian context? SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  5. “Modelling… the SUSTRUS way” SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  6. Model database SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  7. National SAM National SAM Regional account data - production -consumption - wages - import & export Regional account data - production - consumption - wages - import & export Regional SAMs Regional SAMs Transport costs Trade flows and trade margins data Balanced Regional SAMs Constrained optimization Balancing procedure Cross-entropy Consistency check = Are trade flows and calculated margins correct and consistent with historical data Calibration SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  8. Interrelated objectives Emissions Energy efficiency ENVIRONMENTAL MODULE Gini coefficientAtkinson Kakwani TRADE MODULE SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE Interregional tradeTrade opennessTrade balanceForeign investment GDPEquivalent variation ConsumptionInvestment SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  9. Overview • Sustainable Russia or SUSTRUS • Overview of project results • Conclusions SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  10. Application 1: Environment SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  11. SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  12. Application 2: Social SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  13. SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  14. SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  15. Application 3: WTO accession SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  16. Tariff reform? +Service liberalization: -> 10% decrease in fixed cost for foreign establishment (ad valorem tax rates : source WTO 2011) SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  17. Main effects SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  18. Import / export and output 2012 In absolute values SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  19. Import / export and output 2015 In absolute values SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  20. Inequality? SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  21. SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  22. Regional welfare effect 2012 SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  23. Regional welfare effect 2015 SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  24. Conclusions • SUSTRUS is a novel general equilibrium model that allows for a balanced sustainability impact analysis • Tests with the environmental model show that emissions of carbon dioxide and other pollutants can be reduced at relatively low cost and with the additional benefit of tax revenues • As far as taxation and redistribution are issues, we stress the importance of transfers and the recycling of tax revenues to measure welfare effects • A simulation of the WTO accession shows that the current reform leads to a modest improvement in welfare and output adjustment on long term. • Welfare effects of WTO accession are dependent on the accessibility of the region. Central, North West and Far East region have the largest benefits SUSTRUS Moscow conference

  25. Thank youFor your attention SUSTRUS Moscow conference

More Related