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Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA

Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA. Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo. Major Changes in Operational NWP System. Major NWP Changes. Global (Deterministic medium-range).

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Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA

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  1. Recent Progresses in Numerical Weather Prediction and HPC at KMA Hee-Dong Yoo Korea Meteorological Administration 26th WGNE Meeting October 18-22, 2010, Tokyo

  2. Major Changes in Operational NWP System

  3. Major NWP Changes Global (Deterministic medium-range) Regional (Deterministic short-range) - 3 -

  4. UM Implementation Background • KMA decided to import the Unified Model as a next-generation NWP system (Q4 ’07) • UM Research license (Q4 ’07) • Collaboration Agreement – including Science Plan - between KMA and UK Met Office (Operational License, Q2 ’08) • Routine operation of global/regional UM started (Q2 ’08) • Initialized from UK Met Office’s initial condition • Global D.A. cycle for UM including ODB implementation (’08~’09) • Migration of UM system to the 3rd supercomputer (Q4 ’09) • Parallel run of UM system on Cray XT5 Interim (March ’10~) • Operational run of UM system on Cray XT5 (14th May ’10~) - 4 -

  5. Operational UM System Parallel Suite : 2010.03 ~ 2010.05 GTS/FTP Operational Suite : 2010.05 ~ Decoded Obs. (ODB) COMIS Pre-/Post-Server (New) Cray XT5 (3rd HPC) Global Model (UM N320L50) 10-day Forecast Data Assimilation Observation Pre-Processing Atmos. 4DVAR (VAR) Surf. Analysis (SURF) Obs. Pre-proc. System (OPS) Regional Model (UM 12km) Application/Statistical Models Post-Processing Regional Model (KWRF 10km) - 5 -

  6. Global • Horiz. : N320 • (~40km / 0.5625°x0.375°) • Vert. : 50 layers • (top ~ 60km) • +252hr Forecast • Initialized by 4DVAR • Version : UM 6.6 Regional • Horiz. : ~12km • (540x432 / 0.11°x0.11°) • Vert. : 38 layers • (top ~ 39km) • +72hrs Forecast • Initialized from Global I.C. • Version : UM 6.6 UM Configuration in KMA - 6 -

  7. Main Operational Models (’10.5~)

  8. Operational NWP Models – Unified Model - 8 -

  9. Operational NWP Models – Others / Global / Atmos. - 9 -

  10. Operational NWP Models – Others / Regional / Atmos. - 10 -

  11. Data Assimilation System – for Global UM Observation Data and Global D.A. - 11 -

  12. NWP Performance - Global Forecast error comparison (GDAPS vs. UM) - 12 -

  13. NWP Performance - Global RMS error for 500 hPa Geopotential Height / N. Hemisphere Old (GDAPS) New (UM) +5days +3days - 13 -

  14. NWP Performance - Global Verification against Analysis • Verification Period • April ~ September 2010 • ~15% enhancement compared to GDAPS for 500 hPa Geopotential Height (+120 hours)

  15. KWRF(10km) UM12 NWP Performance - Regional (Precipitation) Precipitation Verification (against 76 ASOS obs.) – UM versus KWRF • The Regional UM outperforms KWRF • Light Precipitation is significantly over-estimated in the UM UM(12km) – KWRF(10km) - 15 -

  16. New Supercomputer andUpcoming NWP Changes

  17. 1st Supercomputer NEC SX-5/28M2 1999.12 ~ 2005.11 Theoretical performance 0.2 TFlops 2nd Supercomputer CRAY X1E 1024/MSP 2005.12 ~ 2010.11 Theoretical performance 18.5 TFlops 3rd Supercomputer CRAY XE6 90,240 cores 2010 ~ Theoretical performance 682.9 TFlops KMA’s Supercomputer ×90 ×37 Current Status (’10.10) - 1st phase of 3rd Supercomputer - Cray XT5 - 2,560 cores / 27.65 TFlops - 17 -

  18. KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Initial Phase System 2 Interim System System 1 Main Computational System Cray XT5 MPP System with Lustre Global Parallel File System • Processor : AMD 2.7GHz (4 core) - 18 -

  19. KMA’s 3rd Supercomputer – Final Phase Cray XE6 Cray XE6 System 3 Interim System System 1 - Operational Main Computational System System 2 – Research/Backup Main Computational System Cray Next Generation XE6 (Baker) MPP System • Processor : AMD 2.1GHz (12 core) - 19 -

  20. KMA’s Supercomputer Center • Construction : June 2008 ~ Jan 2010 • Official Opening Ceremony: Feb 2010 • Total Cost: 25.3 billion won(about 23M USD) • Total Construction Area : 23,092㎡ / KMA HQ: ~16,500㎡ • Building area: 7,052㎡, 3rd floors Electricity: 250 % greater than HQ UPS: 475 % greater than HQ Cooling : 360 % greater than HQ

  21. Upcoming NWP Changes Global NWP System Intensity error reduced Track error reduced - 21 -

  22. CPRSS_New RMSE SPREAD CPRSS_Old Solid : OPER Dashed : N320L50 Results for Summer 2010 Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer New Global Ensemble Prediction System - 22 -

  23. Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Resolution Change of Global NWP Model N512 N320 • Max. Height in South Korea domain • N320 orog. : 523m • N512 orog. : 692m • Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6 - 23 -

  24. Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Regional 4DVAR UM System • Operational Run : Q2 2011 on Cray XE6 - 24 -

  25. Upcoming NWP Changes on the New Supercomputer Local High-Impact Weather Forecasting System • UM 1.5kmL70 • New NWP System • Horizontal Resolution : 1.5km Variable Grid • Vertical Levels : 70 Levels (~39km) • UM Version : vn7.5 or later • Data Assimilation : 3-hourly 3DVAR Cycle Radar Data 12km Domain • Pre-Operational Parallel Run : Q3 2011 • Operational Run : Q2 2012 1.5km Domain - 25 -

  26. Two Tracks on the Future NWP at KMA • Successful UM operation on new supercomputer • Modification and Improvement • Development of our own NWP System • Own Techniques  PBL scheme, Microphysics scheme, Gravity wave, own dynamics (DFS) - 26 -

  27. Development of an Original NWP System Long-Term Development Plan (’11~’19) • 1st Phase : Initial Development Stage • Development of Core Modules : Dynamics Core, Physical Parameterization Schemes, etc. • 2nd Phase : Growing Stage • Production of a Prototype Numerical Model : Combining Developed Modules and Preliminary Test • 3rd Phase : Mature (Pre-Operational) Stage • Stabilization, Performance Enhancement : Preparation for the Operational Implementation # New organization out of KMA! # Invitation for the position of the head of new organization soon! - 27 -

  28. Climate Prediction Division LRF Climate Outlook CPD International Cooperation Climate Monitoring Technical Development

  29. LRF and Climate Outlook 1-month Forecast - 3rd, 13th and 23rd of the month 3-month Forecast - 23rd of the month Seasonal Climate Outlook - Feb. for Summer, May for Autumn, Aug. for Winter, Nov. for Spring

  30. Procedure APCC MME(15 model, 8 contries) WMO LC-LRFMME(12 GPCs) Global SST Prediction Model Global Dynamic Model Statistical Analysis Model Discussion (CPD) LRF ET Meeting (season) Int’l Joint Meeting (summer, winter) Discussion Briefing Press Release KMA Homepage Disaster Prevention System Mass Media, …

  31. WMO LC-LRFMME http://www.wmolc.org No. of Members : 106 members from 45 countries 「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼

  32. UM based Atmospheric Model -Operational Forecast System is going to be replaced with the UM based atmospheric model(N144L38) by 2011 GloSea4 -According to the agreement between UKMO and KMA on the joint seasonal forecast system(’10.6.22), KMA is currently working to move its seasonal forecast system to the GloSea4(HadGEM3N96L85/ORCA1L75) < Major Plan > - Jan 2011: Migration of KMA-GloSea4 from Cray-XT5 to Cray-XE6 - 2011: Testing of KMA-GloSea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2012: Semi-operational run of KMA-Glosea4 with real-time ICs from UKMO - 2013: Operational run of KMA-GloSea4 Future Plan 「World Best 365」 하늘을 친구처럼, 국민을 하늘처럼

  33. Thank You for Your Attention See you again in Korea or other countries!!

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