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Review of China’s City Development Plans

Review of China’s City Development Plans. Mark Harrison November 2010. China Economy. China population 1.3 billion Second largest economy in world Set to be largest by 2020 - 2030 GDP per capita approaching US$4,000 40% - 50% of GDP is investment

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Review of China’s City Development Plans

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  1. Review of China’s City Development Plans Mark Harrison November 2010

  2. China Economy • China population 1.3 billion • Second largest economy in world • Set to be largest by 2020 - 2030 • GDP per capita approaching US$4,000 • 40% - 50% of GDP is investment • Over 50% of investment is infrastructure and property

  3. Urban Population Source: UN World Urbanisation Prospects 2007

  4. Historic Transformation • Agricultural –> industrial –> post-industrial • Process is familiar but scale unprecedented • Adjustments to socialist market economy • Changes in lifestyle, increasing household income • Rural – urban migration • Sub-urbanisation of towns and villages

  5. Pearl River Delta

  6. Some Milestones • Creation of urban land market • Assignment of land-use rights • Establishment of urban planning system • Reform of the household registration system • Marketisation of housing and food

  7. National Priorities

  8. National Priorities • Coastal provinces more than half GDP in 2005 • Bohai Economic Circle • Yangzi River Delta • Pearl River Delta • Develop centre and west • Restructure industrial north east • Close gap rural and urban incomes

  9. Future Focus • City clusters • Metropolitan regions • Changsha – Zhuzhou - Xiangtan • New Districts • Tianjin Binhai • Chongqing Liangjiang • Urban – rural integration • Chengdu – Chongqing

  10. China Urban Planning System • Urban Planning Act 1990 • Urban and Rural Area Planning Act 2008 • New planning law covers urban and rural areas • Emphasising regional development and integration of city and countryside

  11. Water 25% Forest 21% Farm land 40% Oil Gas 10% Natural Resources Natural resources per capita far below world average level.

  12. Coal Controls Energy Thermal occupies 83% of total power generation of China Coal occupies 91% of total fuel of Chinese thermal power

  13. Climate Change • World’s largest emitter of CO2 • Urbanisation to increase GHG emissions • Mitigate impacts of climate change • Committed to UNFCCC principle of "Common but differentiated responsibilities" • China National Climate Change Action Plan • Science and Technology Action Plan on Climate Change

  14. China Low Carbon Initiatives • 2007 15% of energy consumption from renewable energy • by 2020 • (Renewable Energy Plan) • 2009 Carbon emissions per unit GDP to be reduced 40-45% • by 2020 compared to 2005 • (Announced at UN Climate Change Summit, • Copenhagen) • 2009 100GW wind turbines, 20GW (2GW by 2011) solar • photovoltaic installed capacity by 2020 • (NEA) • 2010 8 pilot Low Carbon Cities; 5 pilot Low Carbon Provinces • (NDRC) • 2011 Energy and low carbon expected to be key focus of • emerging 12th Five Year Plan

  15. 5+8 Pilot Provinces & Cities NDRC announces: Guangdong, Hubei, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Liaoning as Low Carbon Pilot Province, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Hangzhou, Guiyang, Nanchang, Xiamen, Baoding as Low Carbon Pilot City

  16. Policies & Strategies Develop Low Carbon Economy Promote Low Carbon Energy Technology Increase Carbon Sink Improve Carbon Capture Tech

  17. Urban Issues

  18. Urban Issues • Urban air and water pollution • Availability of freshwater • Impacts of continuing motorisation • Housing affordability • Consumption of energy/unit GDP 3.5 x US • (World Bank)

  19. Urban Issues • Urban regeneration • Historic area protection • Many new development models appear in China • Shanghai Xintiandi, Suzhouhe, and 798… • Cityscape and urban design • Shanghai World Expo

  20. Socio-economic Issues • Food security • “Red line" of 120 million ha of arable land • Stimulation of domestic demand • Rural development and living standards • Migrant workers, health and welfare • Ageing of population

  21. Short-term Priorities • Stimulus package of US$585 billion • Low-income housing • Rural infrastructure • Water, electricity, transportation • Environment • Technological innovation • Sichuan reconstruction

  22. Forthcoming Priorities • Fifth Plenum of 17th CPC Central Committee • Ongoing urbanisation • Reduction of energy consumption intensity • Boost efficiency of energy use • Reductions in carbon dioxide emissions • Progressive efforts to establish carbon trade markets

  23. Forthcoming Priorities • Strengthen environmental and ecological protection • Security of water resources • Water, air and soil pollution • Flooding and natural disasters • Develop a "recycling economy“ • Promote economic use of natural resources • Infrastructure investment

  24. Potential Future Milestones • Rural land reforms • Land held collectively • 700 million peasant farmers • Municipal finance reform • Land disposal contribution to GDP

  25. Summary • Historic transformation from agrarian society • Ongoing urbanisation, industrialisation, modernisation • A rich country but modest per capita GDP • Uneven development across the country • Natural resource challenges • Mode and model of urbanisation

  26. Summary • Considerable challenges ahead • Climate change and adaptation • Transport, energy, environment and water • Rural area development and living standards • Stimulating domestic demand, innovation • Regional development • Liveability

  27. Summary • Carbon reduction/carbon trading policies • Develop newenergy industries • Infrastructure spending • Environment protection spending • More affordable housing • Disband separate urban and rural social benefit systems

  28. Summary • National priorities to continue to develop • Bohai economic circle • Yangzi River Delta • Pearl River Delta • Development of central and western regions • Restructuring of industrial north east

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