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Robert Warren Former Director, Statistics Division, U.S . Immigration and Naturalization Service PowerPoint Presentation
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Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010. Robert Warren Former Director, Statistics Division, U.S . Immigration and Naturalization Service rwarren@indy.rr.com John Robert Warren

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Unauthorized Immigration to the United States: Annual Estimates and Components of Change, by State, 1990 to 2010

Robert Warren

Former Director, Statistics Division, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service

rwarren@indy.rr.com

John Robert Warren

Minnesota Population Center, Department of Sociology, University of Minnesota

warre046@umn.edu

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Unique features of these estimates:

    • Number of unauthorized residents arriving each year
    • Number leaving the unauthorized population each year
    • (via emigration, removal, adjustment to legal status, or death)
    • 20-year annual time series
    • Available for the nation, every state, and DC
    • For most states, the most precise estimates ever made
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Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009

AL, AK, GA, KY, NC, SC, & TN

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Unauthorized Immigration,1990-2009

MICHIGAN

(3 Year Moving Average)

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Conclusions

The American Community Survey (ACS) is an excellent source of detailed foreign-born data for estimating unauthorized immigration

Unauthorized immigration increased during the 1990s, reached a peak of 1.4 million in 2000, and then dropped rapidly; fewer than 400,000 arrived in 2009

The number leaving the unauthorized population increased steadily throughout the period, exceeding 500,000 each year from 2007 to 2009

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Conclusions

The rapid decline in arrivals after 2000 was the primary reason for reduced population growth, but departures from the population contributed significantly to reaching zero growth.

The estimates of the unauthorized immigrant population in every state could be useful for developing U.S. immigration policy, especially for planning a legalization program.

Future estimates will require improvements in the sources of data used in the estimates.

Finally, an unanswerable but intriguing question: Did the increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11 cause the number of overstays to drop sooner and faster than the number entering without inspection (EWI) across the borders?