1 / 13

THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. RESEARCH DAY FEBRUARY 1, 2013. VOLATILITY AND THE “FISCAL CLIFF”. GLOBAL EQUITY VOL. CURRENCY VOLS. CORRELATIONS WITH SPX (DOLLAR, GOLD, BAA, GOVT,VIX). CURRENCY CORRELATIONS. SYSTEMIC RISK MEASURES.

chaka
Download Presentation

THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. THE STATE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY RESEARCH DAY FEBRUARY 1, 2013

  2. VOLATILITY AND THE “FISCAL CLIFF”

  3. GLOBAL EQUITY VOL

  4. CURRENCY VOLS

  5. CORRELATIONS WITH SPX (DOLLAR, GOLD, BAA, GOVT,VIX)

  6. CURRENCY CORRELATIONS

  7. SYSTEMIC RISK MEASURES • How much capital would the financial sector of a country need to raise in order to continue functioning if we have another financial crisis? • If this is a “big” number, then financial firms will begin rebuilding balance sheets now by raising loan standards and selling assets, thus bringing on the economic slowdown. • In a crisis it is hard to raise capital so do it now! Regulators may demand this. • “Big” relative to what? GDP, Market Cap?

  8. SYSTEMIC RISK IN US

  9. SYSTEMIC RISK IN EUROPE

  10. WHERE IS EUROPEAN SYSTEMIC RISK?

  11. HOW BIG IS IT RELATIVE TO GDP?

  12. HOW BIG IS IT RELATIVE TO MARKET VALUE?

  13. CONCLUSIONS • Volatility is low pretty much everywhere. • European banks are still very exposed – politicians are “holding their breaths.” They are hoping they will not have to “show their cards.” • Need a banking union with lender of last resort and deposit insurance. This is on a slow boat but moving. It makes no sense to have national regulators or national obligations to decide whether to rescue failing institutions. Think of the cost benefit calculations involved.

More Related