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THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON

THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON. Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (1).

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THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON

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  1. THE 2000 HURRICANE SEASON Tropical Prediction Center/National Hurricane Center WHERE AMERICA’S CLIMATE AND WEATHER SERVICES BEGIN

  2. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (1) • Above average activity: 15 named storms, including 8 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes (avg=10/6/2.5), and one unnamed ST. All named storms occurred during August, September, and October. • Three-year (98-00) total of 26 hurricanes ties all time record (49-51) for hurricane frequency. Six-year total of 81 named storms and 49 hurricanes is a record. • Many weak systems (4 TD’s, plus 4 TS’s with winds of  45 kt). First operational subtropical cyclone since 1992. Four of the 15 systems had subtropical origins. HURRICANE ISAAC NOAA/NESDIS

  3. SEASON HIGHLIGHTS (2) • No U.S. landfalling hurricanes (19th time in last 102 years). 1951 and 1990 also had 8 hurricanes with no U.S. landfalls. • 49 deaths (5 in U.S.). U.S. casualties include three drownings from dangerous surf/waves from Hurricane Florence (~300 miles away) and one from Isaac. • Minimal U.S. damage ($27M) due to tropical cyclones, but antecedent disturbance to T.S. Leslie combined with a stalled frontal zone to produce $950 M in flooding damage.

  4. ALBERTO LESLIE MICHAEL ISAAC HELENE GORDON MICHAEL ALBERTO FLORENCE HELENE GORDON LESLIE BERYL NADINE UNNAMED DEBBY CHRIS ERNESTO KEITH HELENE DEBBY ISAAC JOYCE JOYCE ALBERTO

  5. Third longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone on record. Spent one week looping in the central north Atlantic.

  6. Disorganized system with multiple centers. One death in northeastern Mexico from flooding.

  7. A minimal tropical storm cut down in the prime of life by wind shear.

  8. See Chris...

  9. Category 1 hurricane that clipped the extreme northeastern Caribbean. $0.5M damage in Puerto Rico. Posed a potential threat to south Florida but unexpectedly weakened.

  10. 7 difficult forecasts compared to the actual track of Debby

  11. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE JUST PRIOR TO THE G-IV AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE MISSION

  12. FORECAST GUIDANCE JUST AFTER G-IV MISSION-- NOTE THE LARGE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACKS

  13. UKMET MODEL WITHOUT SONDES WITH SONDES Courtesy Julian Heming, UKMO

  14. Category 1 hurricane of subtropical origins. Reached hurricane status three times. Three deaths from rip currents in North Carolina.

  15. Landfall near Cedar Key, FL as a 55 kt tropical storm. $11M damage. 24 deaths, mainly in Guatemala.

  16. Hurricane Gordon Storm Surge Flooding around Tampa Bay Photos: Florida Division of Emergency Management Pinellas County FL 18 Sep 2000: Courtney Campbell Causeway (SR 60)

  17. Landfall near Ft. Walton Bch, FL, as a 35 kt tropical storm. One death from tornado in S. Carolina. ~$16M damage.

  18. Category 4 hurricane. Affected portions of the British Isles as an extratropical storm. One drowning death off of Long Is.

  19. 230 a.m. EDT, Sep 21, 2000 T.D. THIRTEEN (ISAAC) FIRST DETECTED IN REMOTELY SENSED SATELLITE WIND DATA

  20. Strongest hurricane of the season. Battered resort islands of Belize, causing 19 deaths (5 in Belize), $200M damage.

  21. Hurricane Keith flood damage in Belize Corosal-Belize Highway 3 Oct 2000 REUTERS

  22. Pan-American Highway, Nicaragua 3 Oct 2000 REUTERS

  23. Keith’s powerful Category 4 winds batter parts of Belize Belize City 2 Oct 2000 REUTERS

  24. Belize City 2 Oct 2000 REUTERS

  25. Another difficult storm to forecast...

  26. Computer forecast models from 8 am EDT, Oct. 2.

  27. …fortunately Keith was a relatively small hurricane

  28. SOUTH FLORIDA FLOODS CAUSED BY THE PRE-LESLIE DISTURBANCE -- OCTOBER 3

  29. Widespread Residential Flooding in Miami-Dade County, FL image provided by South Florida Water Management District

  30. image provided by South Florida Water Management District

  31. NHC

  32. NEXRAD Doppler Radar Estimated Rainfall Totals, 2-4 OCTOBER 2000 Courtesy Colin McAdie (TPC), Peter Dodge (HRD)

  33. Precursor disturbance contributed to severe flooding in S. Florida that caused $950M damage and three indirect deaths. Began advisories as Subtropical Depression One.

  34. Became extratropical just prior to reaching Newfoundland.

  35. …a storm of no recognizable merit whatsoever...

  36. …the Beven-cane of the century...

  37. NOAA Seasonal Hurricane Forecast Yes. No. Not really. • A 75% chance of above-average activity, due to reduced vertical wind shear and above-average SSTs. • Typically at least 11 TS, 7 H, 3 MH. • Overall activity is typically very high in active years. • Caribbean islands and United States are at an increased risk of TS or H strikes (2-3 hurricane strikes each in active years). Yes. 20% above normal. Yes, sort of, for C.I., but no for U.S. "Our estimate of U.S. landfall by an intense hurricane did not prove correct, but landfall predictions don't work well in any individual year.” Bill Gray

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