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Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources

Drought Chasing: An NDMC Perspective on Future Drought Activities. Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources. Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC. Acknowledgements.

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Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources

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  1. Drought Chasing: An NDMC Perspective on Future Drought Activities Michael Hayes National Drought Mitigation Center School of Natural Resources Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC

  2. Acknowledgements • Workshop Planning Committee (David Legler, Wayne Higgins, Kingste Mo, Mike Halpert, Mark Svoboda, Dave Gutzler, Ann Fiedler, Mike Hayes) • Ann Fiedler, Nicole Wall • Deb Wood • NDMC staff and students • Jacki Loomis • Licorice International • Holiday Inn

  3. Nebraska (Here’s What I Said) • Home of the Unicameral • Home of the 6th Great Lake • Sandhills • Kool-Aid, CliffNotes • Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett), Cabela’s, Union Pacific (World’s largest rail yard in North Platte), Valmont Industries

  4. Nebraska (What I Did Not Say) • BEEF • Cranes • Storms

  5. Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

  6. Photo: Cimarron County, Oklahoma Gary McManus, Oklahoma Climatological Survey, late June, 2008

  7. Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

  8. Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

  9. Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

  10. Photo: Ken Dewey, UNL

  11. Photo: Melissa Widhalm, NDMC

  12. Look Back…to Look Ahead • Kelly Redmond: • Where are we now? • How did we get here? • What is the historical perspective for the current situation? • What are the most likely outcomes from the current situation? • What is it going to be like next week, next month, next year…?

  13. Look Back…to Look Ahead • Monitoring, early warning, and prediction • Foundation of a drought mitigation plan • Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers • Risk and impact assessment • Who and what is at risk and why? • Mitigation and response • Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts • Programs and actions during drought events

  14. Look Back…to Look Ahead • Monitoring, early warning, and prediction • Foundation of a drought mitigation plan • Indices/indicators linked to impacts and triggers • Risk and impact assessment • Who and what is at risk and why? • Mitigation and response • Programs and actions to reduce future drought impacts • Programs and actions during drought events

  15. Prediction Drought Planning Continuum Response Mitigation Increasing need for more reliable seasonal forecasts/outlooks Increasing need for timely, reliable climate/water supply assessments Increasing need for higher resolution analysis for policy/decision support

  16. Risk and Impact Assessment “No systematic collection and analysis of social, environmental, and economic data focused on the impacts of drought within the United States exists today.” p. 5

  17. Mitigation • Planning • Monitoring • Supply augmentation • Infrastructure improvements • Demand reduction • Education • Communication • Coordination • Legislation

  18. Mitigation • Nebraska examples (1998-2000 Drought Plan revision to incorporate mitigation strategies) • Farm Crisis Hotline • Soil Moisture Network • Vulnerable Water Systems

  19. Mitigation • Council of Governors’ Policy Advisors (1997): The concept of mitigation will be difficult unless officials understand the economic impacts and the positive quantitative benefits of mitigation actions. • Multihazard Mitigation Council Report (2005): “…a dollar spent…on hazard mitigation...provides the nation about $4 in future benefits.” 1:4 ratio

  20. Act 238 (2007) • $1 million appropriated for drought mitigation for each county • 22 projects identified including: water system improve-ments, stormwater reclamation, ditch improvements, wildland fire, education, monitoring

  21. The Trend Toward Local

  22. River Basin Drought Planning Information

  23. Additional Issues • Gregg Garfin: “Growth” • Colorado: 6-25 acres going out of production every hour • “Not whether Colorado will grow, but how!” • Climate Change • Temperature matters! • Complexity • Andrea Ray: “Conversation” • NIDIS • Individual Livelihoods

  24. “There’s nothing more frightening than being without water.” Mayor Campbell, Edina, MO, May 1989

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