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HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE

HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE. Prof Carel van Aardt Bureau of Market Research. The situation. One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world About 2000+ new infections per day

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HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE

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  1. HIV/AIDS AND THE ECONOMIC DEMOGRAPHY OF TSHWANE Prof Carel van Aardt Bureau of Market Research

  2. The situation • One of the highest per capita HIV/AIDS prevalence and infection rates in the world • About 2000+ new infections per day • An estimated 4.7 to 6.5 million South Africans already HIV positive • More than 300000 people died because of AIDS related diseases during 2001. Expected to rise to about 800000+ by 2008

  3. HIV prevalence trends

  4. Why is prevalence so high in S.A.? • Social and family disruption • High mobility and good transport • High poverty and low education levels • High level of STDs, low status of women • Low contraceptive prevalence • Many sexual partners • Culture and risk behavior • Fear of admitting status (denial)

  5. HIV/AIDS lifecycle: 2001-2010

  6. Key uncertainties • HIV/AIDS parameters, progress and epidemiological pattern • Institutional capacity to deal with it • Efficacy of drugs and vaccines • Efficacy of macro-, meso- and micro- responses to HIV/AIDS • Multipliers and mediating variables • Economy, education, business

  7. Black population, 2001

  8. Black population, 2006

  9. Black population, 2011

  10. Black population, 1996 to 2011

  11. Stochastic distribution: Black population

  12. White population, 2001

  13. White population, 2006

  14. White population, 2011

  15. Stochastic distribution: White population

  16. Asian population, 2001

  17. Asian population, 2006

  18. Asian population, 2011

  19. Stochastic distribution: Asian population

  20. Coloured population, 2001

  21. Coloured population, 2006

  22. Coloured population, 2011

  23. Stochastic distribution: Coloured population

  24. Impacts (1) • Demographic – size and structure • Labour supply and demand - outsourcing • Skills availability and skills formation • Income impacts • Expenditure and savings patterns • Health sector – cost and effort • Entrepreneurship • Economic structure and capital intensification

  25. Impacts (2) • Households – negative spiral • Local government income and expenditure • Economy of scale effects • Factor flight and lower GDP per capita • Development and poverty • Priorities of people (medicines vs. education) • Formal sector behavior

  26. Prospects • Substantially less people by 2010 • Loss of a large pool of highly skilled people and entrepreneurs • Strong growth in unemployment and poverty • Decline in business confidence and growth of tax base • Economic growth and development • Social and political instability • Productivity and production

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