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Minerals Management Service OCS Scientific Committee Physical Oceanography Subcommittee

STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ISSUES . The total OCS adjacent to Alaska is large, the proposed Beaufort Program Area alone covers more than 9.8 million acres and a coast of roughly 400 milesFor scale comparison??... . Regional Setting. Regional Setting. Recent Major Actions/Upcoming. Beaufort Sale 186 (Sept. 2003)Cook Inlet Sale 191 (May 2004)Beaufort Sale 195 (March 2005).

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Minerals Management Service OCS Scientific Committee Physical Oceanography Subcommittee

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    1. Minerals Management Service OCS Scientific Committee Physical Oceanography Subcommittee Alaska OCS Region Studies Dick Prentki

    2. STRATEGIC PICTURE/ MAJOR ISSUES The total OCS adjacent to Alaska is large, the proposed Beaufort Program Area alone covers more than 9.8 million acres and a coast of roughly 400 miles For scale comparison..

    4. Regional Setting

    5. Regional Setting

    6. Recent Major Actions/Upcoming Beaufort Sale 186 (Sept. 2003) Cook Inlet Sale 191 (May 2004) Beaufort Sale 195 (March 2005)

    7. Beaufort Sea Leases

    8. Recent Issues How valid are MMS estimates of oil spill risk (spill rates and transport) used as a basis for consideration of EIS alternatives to exploration? What are the fate and effects of anthropogenic compounds in the marine environment near offshore oil and gas development?

    9. Recent Workshops

    10. Physical Oceanography Workshops Fit of FY 2005 Proposed Starts with FY 2004 Starts and Ongoing Studies Proposed New FY 2005 Starts Beaufort Sea Mesoscale Meteorology Boundary Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea: Feasibility and Study Design Hydrological Modeling along the Alaskan Arctic Coast

    11. Recent Physical Oceanography Workshops Physical Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea OCS STUDY MMS 2003-045 Small-Scale Sea-Ice and Ocean Modeling (SIOM) in the Nearshore Beaufort and Chukchi Seas OCS Study MMS 2003-043 Minerals Management Service -Alaska Outer Continental Shelf Region Research Sponsorship Meeting on the Mapping of Surface Currents from High Frequency Radar in the Beaufort Sea and Cook Inlet OCS Study MMS 2004-In prep Cook Inlet Oceanography Workshop OCS Study MMS 2000-043

    12. MMS Beaufort Sea Physical Oceanography Workshop Guided FY2005 Planned Starts

    13. Physical Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea Workshop Proceedings Held February 4-6, 2003 in Fairbanks, AK 36 participants from US, Canada, and Japan The workshop reviewed knowledge of the physical oceanography of the Beaufort shelf and recommended studies to support MMSs mission with respect to industrial development on this shelf or along the coast. Critical research issues were identified

    14. Physical Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea Workshop Critical Issues Wind and surface stress fields established by mesoscale variations in the regional meteorology and sea ice distribution and deformation fields, Effects of freshwater discharge and freezing (convective) processes on the shelf circulation Controls exerted on the circulation and water property fields by the lateral boundaries of the Alaskan Beaufort Sea: the Chukchi shelf (western boundary), the Canadian Beaufort shelf (eastern boundary), and the shelfbreak and continental slope (offshore boundary Shelf/slope bathymetry

    16. Physical Oceanography FY 2005 Studies Beaufort Sea Mesoscale Meteorology Page 23 Preliminary Regional Rank: Highest Assumed 50% cost sharing Mesoscale problems: Mountain barrier baroclinity [Brooks Range] especially in winter Sea Breeze from land vs. icy sea: thermal gradient in summer Neither captured adequately in synoptic wind models (weather forecasting and climate center models) nor by circulation or trajectory models

    17. Beaufort Sea Mesoscale Meteorology (continued) Objective: Better understand mesoscale meteorology and develop model that can predict along shore and cross-shelf wind speed and direction Phase I: Develop cost sharing and review existing data Phase II: High spatial and temporal ice and wind field measurements in conjunction with ocean-ice circulation process modeling Phase III: Produce and validate mesoscale meteorological model

    18. Some of the Existing Data: Beaufort Sea Meteorological Monitoring and Data Synthesis Project

    19. The 5 MMS Weather Stations www.resdat.com/mms/index.cfm;

    20. Hourly wind speed Beaufort Sea in meters per second 2003.

    21. Physical Oceanography FY 2005 Studies Hydrological Modeling along the Alaskan Arctic Coast Page 25 Preliminary Regional Rank: Higher Changes in timing and amounts of river runoff to the Arctic shelves effect circulation, but are poorly to non-represented in circulation models. Objectives: Develop Beaufort/Arctic model of river runoff for incorporation into general circulation model(s) Understand oceanic fate of Beaufort runoff and contribution to buoyancy-forced coastal circulation

    22. Short time and high flow

    23. MMS Ice Modeling Issues: River Overflow, Nearshore Beaufort Sea

    24. Physical Oceanography FY 2005 Studies Boundary Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea: Feasibility and Study Design Page 21 Preliminary Regional Rank: High Need to better understand the coastal boundary (buoyancy-forced coastal circulation), lateral ocean boundaries, and the offshore boundary Objective: Establish feasibility of partnerships that respond to specific boundary issue recommendations in the BSW Proceedings

    25. Inner Beaufort Sea Shelf

    26. Boundary Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea: Feasibility and Study Design (continued) Buoyancy-forced coastal circulation Processes which enhance or inhibit transport across the landfast/pack ice margin Behavior of snowmelt freshwater plumes beneath landfast ice in spring Better estimates of freshwater discharge cycle for North Slope rivers Observations of open water period 3-D circulation and thermohaline field associated with river discharge Development of geochemical discrimination techniques to source low salinity marines waters

    27. Boundary Oceanography of the Beaufort Sea: Feasibility and Study Design (continued) Lateral Ocean Boundaries Better understanding of western boundary influences Better understanding of eastern boundary influences Offshore Boundary Shipboard and moored measurements across shelf Establish fate of Barrow Canyon outflow Establish degree of infiltration of Mackenzie River Plume into eastern Alaskan Beaufort Sea

    28. Ice Markers Show Complexity

    29. Northstar Island in summer

    30. Northstar in Spring (about this time of year)

    31. Fit with Proposed FY 2006 Studies [unprioritized] Physical Oceanography High-Resolution Regional Bathymetry for Beaufort Sea Continental Shelf [p.49] Mapping Sea Ice Overflood Using Remote Sensing from Smith Bay to Camden Bay [p.51] Norton Basin Planning Area Circulation and Oil Spill Trajectory Model [p.53] Update Digital Interactive Climatic Atlases [p.55]

    32. Fit with Proposed FY 2006 Studies [unprioritized] Fate and Effects Worst-Case Blowout Occurrence Estimators for the Alaska OCS [p. 49] Other Mapping of Ice Gouge and Strudel Scour Density for the Beaufort Sea Utilizing Existing Data [p.73] GIS Internet Map Server (ARCIMS) Web Site for the MMS Sub-sea Physical Environmental Database (SPED) [p.75]

    33. SDC in Winter: Not GOMR

    34. Surface Circulation Radar Mapping in Alaskan Coastal Waters: Field Study Beaufort Sea

    35. Aspects of ice environment to be studied

    36. SDC (Steel Sided Caisson)

    37. Another example of a site specific effort oriented toward monitoring is the ANIMIDA study. You will recall the ANIMIDA Indicator Matrix for Decision Making which we provided you at the November meeting showing the close linkages of this study with decision needs.Another example of a site specific effort oriented toward monitoring is the ANIMIDA study. You will recall the ANIMIDA Indicator Matrix for Decision Making which we provided you at the November meeting showing the close linkages of this study with decision needs.

    38. Underice ADCP Mooring

    39. Figure 1. Map of Prudhoe Bay and Stefansson Sound, Alaska with the location of the three mooring sitesArgo, Dinkum, and McClureindicated.

    41. Surface Circulation Radar Mapping in Alaskan Coastal Waters: Field Study Cook Inlet

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