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National Size Estimation Methods and Processes: Seminar Insights and Strategies for Stakeholders

The National Size Estimation Stakeholder Seminar held on January 10, 2012, at the Richmond Hotel, Bangkok, brought together representatives from various health and research organizations, including the Bureau of Epidemiology and UNAIDS, to establish effective methods for estimating population sizes related to health programs. The seminar addressed essential steps in population estimation, including data compilation, strengths and limitations of existing sources, and approaches to triangulate estimates. Regular updates on size estimation are crucial for understanding program coverage and national cost estimates.

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National Size Estimation Methods and Processes: Seminar Insights and Strategies for Stakeholders

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  1. How: National size estimations methods and process Dr Apinun Aramrattana Size Estimation Stake-Holder Seminar 09.00-16.30, January 10th, 2012 Richmond Hotel, Bangkok

  2. Technical working group for national estimation • A technical working group consisted of representatives from various organizations were formed: • Bureau of Epidemiology (BOE) • Chulalongkorn University • East-West Center • MEASURE • National AIDS Management Center (NAMC) • Research Institute for Health Sciences (RIHES) • Thailand MoPH– U.S. CDC Collaboration (TUC) • UNAIDS • UNFPA • Six meetings were held during September – December 2011 to discuss and find the best currently available estimates figures

  3. Steps in estimation for each population * • Determine utilization of the size estimation and when it will be needed • To determine program coverage and national cost estimates for programs • Regular national size estimation will be needed e.g. every two years • Define population and geographic area • Population is defined based on recent behavior (e.g. sex with another man in the past year, injecting within the past 2 years) • Area = national estimates (details on how to arrive at the national estimates will be discussed in other section) • Review existing data sources for estimation • Existing data sources for each population were reviewed. Limitations and strengths of each method were discussed.

  4. Steps in estimation for each population (continued)* • Compile existing data and collect additional data e.g. • Proportion of IDU, FSW, MSM behaviors reported in surveillance data over years • Additional mapping data on FSW & MSM from BMA and STI cluster • Discuss with key informants • Identify strengths and limitations from each source and how the existing data could be interpreted e.g. • Minimal or maximum estimates • Overall or sub-groups • Geographic coverage of estimation

  5. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Determine approaches and assumptions to be used for calculating national size estimates of each population • Triangulation of available data sources (e.g. survey data over years, literature review) to get a ‘fixing’ parameter as opposed to picking one estimation method that is currently available • Account for over or under estimates of the existing data source • Verify the estimates with other additional supporting information e.g. • IBBS among male military conscripts and vocational school student to examine distribution of estimated populations • AIDS case data

  6. Steps in estimation for each population (continued) • Identify follow up issues needed to be addressed for improving future national estimates e.g. • Additional questions on the IBBS survey to identify proportion of population/sub-groups of interest

  7. RDS Recruitment site Network Scal-up Recruitment site Number of participants by districts(Chiang Mai) Estimation: 1,500 (727-6000 N = 309 (Missing data = 1) Muang 228 N=409 in 8 areas (Chiang Mai) Estimation: 2,260 – 4,012 Number of participants in districts 0 1-10 11-20 21-40 >40 Omkoy 32

  8. Proposed final results: 2009 National IDU size estimation = 40,300

  9. MSM:Available Data Sources

  10. Sex workers (FSWs/ MSWs):Available Data Sources *from field experience

  11. Migrant workers:Available Data Sources *from field experience

  12. Overview of methods used & results

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