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Beta Test of a Prototype Dy namical M odel Track Prediction E valuation S ystem for the Atlantic

Beta Test of a Prototype Dy namical M odel Track Prediction E valuation S ystem for the Atlantic (DYMES). Mark Boothe and Dr. Russell Elsberry Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School. LCDR Laura Salvador Tropical Prediction Center National Hurricane Center.

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Beta Test of a Prototype Dy namical M odel Track Prediction E valuation S ystem for the Atlantic

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  1. Beta Test of a Prototype Dynamical Model Track Prediction Evaluation System for the Atlantic (DYMES) Mark Boothe and Dr. Russell Elsberry Department of Meteorology Naval Postgraduate School LCDR Laura Salvador Tropical Prediction Center National Hurricane Center Funding provided by: USWRP Acknowledgments: Jim Peak and Dan Martinez Computer Sciences Corporation

  2. TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework Environment Structure TC Structure Intensity Synoptic Pattern Determines best steering level Synoptic Region Size Determines the direction & speed of the steering flow that moves the TC Key factor in TC-Environment Transformations TC-Environment Transformations Environmental Effects TC-independent processes that change environment structure (steering) TC-dependent processes that change environmental structure (steering) and sometimes TC structure Transitional Mechanisms Inputs to TC-Environment Transformations Results of Transitional Mechanisms

  3. TC Motion Meteorology Knowledge Base Framework Environment Structure TC Structure Intensity Synoptic Pattern Standard (S) Upper-level Low (U) Poleward (P) Midlatitude (M) Exposed Low-level (XL) Tropical Depression (TD) Tropical Storm (TS) Hurricane (H) Synoptic Region Equatorial Westerlies (EW) Tropical Easterlies (TE) Poleward Flow (PF) / Equatorward Flow (EF) Midlatitude Westerlies (MW) / Easterlies (ME) Size Midget (M) Small (S) Average(A) Large (L) Environmental Effects TC-Environment Transformations Advection by Environment (ADV) Upper-level Low Evolutions: Upper-level Low Formation (ULF) Upper-level Low Dissipation (ULD) Midlatitude System Evolutions: Cyclogenesis (MCG) Cyclolysis (MCL) Anticyclogenesis (MAG) Anticyclolysis (MAL) Beta Effect-Related: Beta-Effect Propagation (BEP) Ridge Modification by TC (RMT) Reverse Trough Formation (RTF) Cyclone Interactions: Midlatitude-Related: Direct (DCI) Response to Vertical Semi-direct (SCI) Shear (RVS) Indirect (ICI) Baroclinic Cyclone Interaction (BCI) Transitional Mechanisms Inputs to TC-Environment Transformations Results of Transitional Mechanisms

  4. AVNO GFDN UKMO NGPS GFDL

  5. E-DCI degrading UKMO ?

  6. Excessive Direct Cyclone Interaction (E-DCI)

  7. E-RMT degrading AVNO ?

  8. RMT

  9. Verifying position Value added: 48 n mi

  10. Rejected at least one dynamical model (SCON = NCON) and 72h forecast verified 27 times Improved 11 Degraded 15 Equal 1 Average Errors (n mi): NCON: 211 SCON: 222

  11. GFDL AVNO GFDN NGPS UKMO

  12. E-DCI degrading GFDN ?

  13. Excessive Direct Cyclone Interaction (E-DCI)

  14. E-BCI degrading GFDL ?

  15. BCI

  16. GFDL AVNO Degraded By E-BCI ? Degraded By I-BCI ? GFDN NGPS UKMO

  17. (AVNO) (GFDL)

  18. Verifying position

  19. Atlantic 2002 Ran DYMES 191 times Assigned: Small Spread 120 25% 63% 12% Compensating Errors 23 One error Mechanism 48

  20. PLANS • Complete the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific model traits knowledge bases for 2001 and 2002 • Review the error mechanism assignment rules • Provide on-line training module by late May

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