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Forward/Inverse Atmospheric Modelling: Recent Results and Future Plans

Forward/Inverse Atmospheric Modelling: Recent Results and Future Plans. Martyn Chipperfield, Manuel Gloor. University of Leeds. Paul Palmer. University of Edinburgh. NCEO meeting, University of Sheffield, 28 th and 29 st February 2012. Talk Layout.

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Forward/Inverse Atmospheric Modelling: Recent Results and Future Plans

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  1. Forward/Inverse Atmospheric Modelling: Recent Results and Future Plans Martyn Chipperfield, Manuel Gloor University of Leeds Paul Palmer University of Edinburgh NCEO meeting, University of Sheffield, 28th and 29st February 2012

  2. Talk Layout • Example Leeds forward/inverse model results • Edinburgh plans (Paul Palmer) • Additional science slides (Manuel Gloor, Leeds) • Summary

  3. TOMCAT CH4 forward simulations – Transcom Results Annual mean CH4 comparisons for six emission scenarios against NOAA surface flask data, 1988-2008.

  4. TOMCAT CH4 forward simulations – Transcom Results Average monthly mean CH4 comparisons for six emission scenarios against NOAA surface flask data, 2000-2006.

  5. TOMCAT Adjoint Modelling – ALT station sensitivities sensitivity CTL sensitivity INV sensitivity Adjoint transport carried out using an initial value of 1 at Alert, Canada to find the sensitivity (LH plots) This sensitivity is then multiplied by the emission rate for CTL (Centre plots) and INV emission (RH plots) inventories This gives an ‘emission sensitivity’ for the ALT station, indicating the emission regions which are influencing the tracer concentration at the station

  6. TransCom CH4 emissions • NH Wetland areas treated individually • Alaska and Canada (>60N) (AL_CAN) • West Siberian Plain (WSP) • Eastern Siberia (>60N) (E_SIB) • (Below) Total CH4 emissions for three TransCom emission inventories in wetland regions

  7. TOMCAT 4D-Var inversion results One year inversion carried out (2008), assimilating eight-day mean data from six Arctic stations. Representative results show relatively small changes in NH winter, but large reductions in wetland areas during April – October Wilson et al (in prep), 2012

  8. More TOMCAT 4D-Var inversion results (Left) Cost function decrease over three iterations of 4D-Var minimisation, split into contributions from observations (CF_O) and background (CF_B) (Below) Total CH4 emissions for three wetland areas. TOMCAT inversion has decreased emissions in line with INV and VISIT in Eastern Siberia and Alaska/Canada regions

  9. Effect of emission changes There is a marked improvement in RMSE between model and observations at the stations from which data has been assimilated, especially during NH summer months

  10. U. Ed. Past NCEO T3 CH4 activities • Developed CH4 simulation ready for EO • Used EO data to develop wetland emissions [Bloom et al, 2010] • Developed EnKF for CH4 source/sink estimation • Extensively evaluated model [Fraser et al, 2011] • Established links with GOSAT team Core framework

  11. U. Ed. Ongoing NCEO T3 CH4 activities • TransCom (Patra et al, 2011) and GCP (Kirschke et al, 2011) • Flux estimates: improve geographical and sector breakdown. • GOSAT collaboration with U. Leicester (Parker et al, 2011) NH SH

  12. U. Ed. Future NCEO CH4 activities • GEOS-Chem to use GEOS v5 met. data (0.25ox0.3125o) • Data: GOSAT, IASI, Sentinel-5P + any new national missions; exploiting correlations with CO • Major focus: EO data • Compare bottom-up/top-down wetland emissions • Help inform JULES development • Co-join two models • Develop inverse problem (parameter estimation?) GEOS-Chem/EnKF JULES/HadGEM2

  13. What could be focus of research? Could include: GHG flux estimation using inversions (and new measurements programs like AMAZONICA or OCO2?) Land surface observation using remote sensing – e.g. GRACE or NDVI Land surface – climate interaction modelling using JULES ?

  14. Links to Leeds Amazon Work Regions with strong soil-moisture temperature coupling Seneviratne et al. 2010

  15. Currently: not much predictive capability e.g. in tropics

  16. Amazon river discharge • at Obidos (drains nearly • 80 % of Amazon basin) • (data from ABA, Brazil govt. hydro- • logy measurements, gap filling by • Callède et al.) • Overall an upward trend in river • discharge • extremes increase – dry season • drier, wet season wetter • How will land vegetation • respond ? Peak Mean Minimum

  17. AMAZONICA - biweekly Greenhouse Gas Data Dec. 2009 onwards for next 4 years (L. Gatti, Sao Paulo, M. Gloor, Leeds, H. Rocha, Sao Paulo, J. Miller NOAA, Boulder)

  18. Simple Analysis Through Back Trajectories

  19. Santarém Tabatinga Rio Branco Alta Floresta In 2010: Amazon weak net carbon source (~0.2PgC yr-1)

  20. What could be focus of research: GHG flux estimation using inversions (and new measurements programs like AMAZONICA or OCO2?) Land surface observation using remote sensing – e.g. GRACE or NDVI Land surface – climate interaction modelling using JULES ? Possibly: Observe and understand ongoing trends of the land-vegetation climate coupled system in those regions which are sensitive

  21. Summary • Tools: • Forward atmospheric CH4/CO2/CO (+ full chem) chemical transport models operational and tested • Inverse schemes EnKF and 4D-var operational • Plans: • Assimilate existing/new satellite datasets (GOSAT, IASI, Sentinel 5-P) • Test top down/bottom up emission estimates • Close collaboration with JULES team (CEH) • Scientifically: • Arctic wetlands • AMAZONICA / vegetation-atmosphere interactions • Others…

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