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Current arrangements

Modification Proposal 0101 – “ Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”. Current arrangements.

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Current arrangements

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  1. Modification Proposal 0101 – “Amendment to demand forecasting timings in relation to the Gas Balancing Alert”

  2. Current arrangements • Gas Balancing Alert (GBA) used to notify users of insufficient anticipated supplies to meet forecast total system demand. Can be issued at day-ahead or within day stage. • Provisions to issue a GBA at D-1 are linked to UNC obligation regarding publication of gas demand forecast (i.e. 14:00 or 02:00). • No Provision to issue a GBA at D-1 following an ad-hoc gas demand forecast. • National Grid currently provide eight gas demand forecasts for each gas day (three at the day-ahead stage and five within day) two of which are not included in the UNC.

  3. Proposed changes • Change in UNC obligation to increase the number of gas demand forecasts published • Associated changes to GBA provision (i.e greater opportunity to issue a GBA) • Include reference to ad-hoc forecasting in determining whether a GBA is to be issued. • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

  4. Effect on gas demand forecasting publication • D-1 • D0

  5. Modification Proposal 0100 – “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times”

  6. Current arrangements • Offtake Profile Notice (OPN) notifies the transporter of the rate of offtake at an exit point throughout the gas day. • Storage Flow Notice (SFN) does a similar job for storage sites. • OPN and SFN submission times are defined in the Network Exit Agreements (NExA) and Storage Connection Agreements (SCA) for relevant exit points.

  7. Case for change • Industry concern about accuracy of D-1 demand forecasts • Ofgem likely to incentivise National Grid NTS on the accuracy of the Total System forecast issued by 14:00 D-1. • 14:00 forecasts include, amongst other things, a view on likely demand from major industrial loads, power stations, interconnectors and storage sites. • Earlier provision of OPNs and SFNs from these sites would give a better informed view of these demands.

  8. Proposed changes • Define OPN and SFN initial submission times for NTS exit points within the UNC as 12:00 hours. • Above change to override timings specified in prevailing Network Exit Provisions in the NExAs, SCAs or Interconnection Agreements. • Changes to be made prior to winter 2006.

  9. Mod Proposal No. 0100 “Amendment to OPN/SFN submission times” – Effect on OPN/SFN submission time

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