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A “Warfighter” Perspective. Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.) Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation Institute for Simulation & Training University of Central Florida XMSF Strategic Opportunities 6 September 2002. The Problem. “That’s not my problem.”*

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a warfighter perspective

A “Warfighter” Perspective

Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE

CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.)

Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation

Institute for Simulation & Training

University of Central Florida

XMSF Strategic Opportunities

6 September 2002

the problem
The Problem

“That’s not my problem.”*

“I didn’t say all those things I said.”+

* Any Navy (DoD, USG) Official

+ Yogi Berra

the algorithm

Scientific

Article

Test

Dev

Y

Test

Valid

Adequate

Force

?

Adequate

Force

?

Adequate

Force

?

6.1

6.2

6.3

N

FrontEndAnalysis

Y

Train

Simulator

Dev

N

MILSTD

1472

Equipment

Re-Design

Y

MILH

46855

N

Mission

Accomplished

The Algorithm

Select

the warfighter redefined for the new century
The “Warfighter” Redefined for the New Century:

D

I

E

M

Diplomacy

Intelligence

Economics

Military

slide6

Evolutionary Environment of Ancestry

Present

Pliocene

Pleistocene

4 MYA400-500 cc Aferensis

2 MYA600-700 cc Habilis

1 MYA900-1100 cc Erectus

100K1350 cc Modern

3x increase in brain volume, mass

>3x increase in volumetric brain power

“Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power

slide7

Brain Growth DataFor Hominidae

Source: McHenry, 1994

estimates of human processing capabilities
Estimates of Human Processing Capabilities

Filtering Algorithms

Process

Sensory

Neural Coding

Cognitive

To Perm. Store

% Filtered

0.003

0.000005

0.04

% Orig. Filtered

--

--

.0000000016

.0000000014

Flow (Bits/Sec)

1 Billion

3 Million

16

0.7

Only 1.6 x 10-9of data bombarding the operator used in real time!

Source: Steinbuck, 1962

slide9

Neuropsychological Sex Differences

More brain volume

More asymmetry

More white matter

Larger amygdala

Larger inferior parietal lobe

Seasonal fluctuation in testosterone

Greater aggressive behavior

Better spatial skills

Less asymmetry

More gray matter, density

Larger caudate

Larger hippocampus

Larger pallidum

Larger cingulate sulcus

More hormonal cyclicity

Better verbal skills

fMRI mapping is just beginning

Conclusion: We are learning more about differences

slide10

Today’s Function and Form

Reptilian Brain

Paleomammalian Brain

Neocortical Brain

Respiration…

Memory, Discrimination, Emotion…

Associative Reasoning…

the prefrontal cortex

Mr. Phinneas Gage’s railroad spike

The Prefrontal Cortex

What do engineers use for birth control?

Why did the golfer wear two pairs of pants?

Problem solving preparation (Carter, et al.)

Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

Emotion processing (Adolphs, et al.)

Right hemisphere prefrontal cortex

Object categorization (Freedman, et al.)

Lateral prefrontal cortex

“Theory of the mind”

Prefrontal lobes, left amygdala

Executive control – switching (Rubinstein, et al.), simulation

Prefrontal cortex, parietal lobes

information knowledge
Information & Knowledge
  • Effects of information and knowledge will be revolutionary. DoD has not fully exploited today's IT. This will happen, but the next wave of IT will be as difficult and expensive to adopt as today's
  • DoD will get most IT from commercial sector. But, adaptation and special needs must be funded by DoD
  • Software development and maintenance must improve
  • Data validation problems must be solved
  • Need to improve the science of simulation
  • Must solve DoD’s IT workforce problems
information knowledge13
Information & Knowledge
  • Information and knowledge systems are vital for:
    • Information superiority
    • Coordination of organizations and operations that are progressively more:
      • Flat
      • Flexible
      • Smaller
      • Widely dispersed
      • Joint & Interagency
      • Coalition-oriented
    • Precision, long distance fires
information knowledge14
Information & Knowledge

Sensors will improve and proliferate

  • Performance to increase, cost to drop (e.g., uncooled IR)
  • Broader spectrum coverage (e.g., Dog’s Nose)
  • Individual collectors to huge arrays
  • In-situ processing – Information, rather than data
  • Infrared focal plane arrays obsolete much of our IR countermeasure capabilities
  • Robotics – UAVs, mini- micro-, and eventually nanobots
  • Thousands of networks replenishing military databases and cross feeding a variety of perspectives
information knowledge15
Information & Knowledge

Hardware and Processing technologies will improve in speed, power, memory, and storage capacity In 15 years chips will be about 15K more capable than today’s (24 hour task in 1 hour) without breakthroughs

  • New Silicon production techniques Vs new materials
  • Next generation processors? Anything that counts!
    • Optical Computing: Electronics will yield to the “Optical Age”
    • Quantum Computing (e.g., Spintronics)
    • DNA computing
    • Parallel Processing: Needs new software concept!
  • Storage: GMR 1 CD may eventually have the storage capacity of 1,000 CDs, providing all information needed for an entire mission
information knowledge16
Information & Knowledge

Software technologies and approaches must change

Problems …

  • Excessively long delivery times
  • Failure of large, complex software codes
  • Information assurance/security
  • Considerable supply from foreign sources
  • Challenged by large amounts of information
  • Creation and maintenance

“If I were to select the most critical R&D need today, it is in software tools and management techniques. Almost every system we develop involves the dominant use of software, and many of the problems we face stem from software issues. This is an area where we need long- range Research and Development efforts to develop new technologies for future systems; and short-range management approaches (often those being applied in commercial industry).” Jacques Gansler’s Opening Statement to the HASC, 3/1/2000.

information knowledge17
Information & Knowledge

… And solutions:

  • Better software through OOP???????
  • AI: High expectations, disappointing results
    • Two ways to give machines “common sense”
      • Provide background info
      • Teach to learn
    • Benefits include:
      • Data/information management – “Wisdom from data”
      • Reduce choices (Choosing your TV programs?)
      • Tireless, “Human-like” associates
      • Robotic self-reinvention
information knowledge18
Information & Knowledge

Communications will be ubiquitous, autonomous, secure, broadband to distribute increasing information

  • Fiber optics and other technologies will enable BOD to be reached in hard-connected systems
  • Wireless connections to moving stations to remain a challenge
  • Improved smart wave-forms will be developed for all operations
  • Internet. By 2003, Internet use will almost double, will be an even more complex, reliable, and secure system
slide19

Chronology of IT x Psychology

1000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 2050

Mech. Clocks

(Aristotle)

(Egypt, map)

Pascaline

Liebniz computer

Babbage engine

Ada Lovelaceprogrammer

Boolean logic

Descartes

Locke

Berkely

Hume

Mill

Wundt

Mendel

Galton

Darwin

Explosive growth

-Electrical-Electronics-Computing-Communication

Gestaltism

Behaviorism

Ethology

Evolution

Cognitivism

Artificial Intel.

Neural Nets

Pentium 32-bitWWW ubiquitousPDA ubiquitous1BIPS@300MHZTouch screensVoice interactiveFace recognitionE-commerce ­Wireless comm ­

Psychobiology

Learning Theory

$1K=1T/calc/secEmbedded comp.Wireless » wiredBiocomputingSpeech recog ubiqIntelligent tutoringReliable transla.Orbital sensing

Sociobiology

$1K=10 brainsComputers ubiqui.3-D displaysSpeech>>manualVirtual presenceVisual « auditoryVirtual transactorsOrbital ® personal

Biology

$1=1 brainSensory implantsDirect neural pathsAgent learning, entrepreneuringAgent>human in- teractionAll-sensor comm.Machines think they are consc.Orbital«personal

Bioengineering

Based on multiple sources including Ray Kurzweil

slide20

Augmented Cognition

Moore’s Law

Decade of the Brain fMRI

Cognitive Revolution

slide21

Objective

1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-Machine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic Marriage

Symbiotic Marriage

Digital Computation

Networking

Memory

AugCog:

Improved Human

Performance

Capability

Biological intelligence is at a relative standstill.

Human

Time

This Will Improve and Enhance the Quality of Military Decision Making

computer power and networking
Computer Power and Networking
  • Computers will continue to follow Moore’s Law
    • Speed and memory double every eighteen months (ex: terraflop, petaflop and computers run on light)
    • Bandwidth has increased speed and sending capacity for all users
  • Programming has completely changed in the last 15 years and will continue to change
  • Neural networking, based on brain, function may increase capacity of computers
  • Knowledge and information may become so abundant it will impede our ability to learn
trainability
Income gaps follow knowledge gaps

Americans as a whole are well-educated but many are still unprepared for work

Technology has not been able to bridge the education gap in K-12

Learning in the future will be reorganized to meet the needs of the ever-changing worker

Predictors of success in work and school:

Socio-economic status

Graduation rates fall along racial lines

IQ testing, regardless of education level

Trainability
trainability24
Trainability
  • Digital technology will revolutionize the practice of teaching and training
  • There is a good possibility learning will drive technology
    • More is spent on learning than on the movie industry each year in the U.S.
  • Three Major types of training:
    • Organizational
    • Learner-driven
    • Technology-mediated
trends in organizational learning
Trends in Organizational Learning
  • Reduce gap in product-service time
  • Need for globalization
  • Ability to extend instructor impact online
  • Business and education units should work together
  • Minimize non-instructional cost (technology should reduce cost)
  • Desire for different types of learning
  • Need performance support in training
  • Choices in pricing, assessment and class selection
trends in learner driven and technology mediated learning
Learner-Driven

Workers have good tools for learning at home-put them to use

Learning independent of time and place

Multi-modal, multi-lingual individualized training

“Learnbots” will help decide what to learn and how to learn

Need for “coaching” rather than “sage on the stage” teaching

Technology-Mediated

Open-architecture, adaptable devices and authoring tools

Standard and speedy bandwidth

Virtual libraries

New pedagogy

More accessible tutors

Substantive content

Trends in Learner-Driven and Technology-Mediated Learning