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Climate Change: Understanding the Science and Developing Strategies for Action. Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy

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climate change understanding the science and developing strategies for action

Climate Change: Understanding the Science and Developing Strategies for Action

Eugene S. Takle, PhD, CCM

Professor of Atmospheric Science

Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences

Professor of Agricultural Meteorology

Department of Agronomy

Faculty Director, University Honors Program

Iowa State University

Ames, Iowa 50011

gstakle@iastate.edu

Science Center of Iowa

5 March 2007

outline
Outline
  • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide
  • Radiative forcing
  • Simulations of global climate and future climate change
  • Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest
  • Four components for addressing climate change

Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

slide4

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data

Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

slide5

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data

Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years

Natural cycles

slide9

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

slide10

Carbon Dioxide and Temperature

“Business as Usual”

950 ppm

?

slide11

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

slide12

Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

slide17

El Chichon (1982)

Agung, 1963

Mt. Pinatubo (1991)

At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018

Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

slide18

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

slide19

Since 1979, the size of the summer polar ice cap has shrunk more than 20 percent.

(Illustration from NASA) (http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/qthinice.asp)

slide20

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

slide22

Kennedy Space

Center

Impact of a 1-m

rise in sea level

on low-lying areas

Projected sea-level rise

In 21st century:

0.5 to 1.0 m

Areas subjected to

Inundation with a 1 m

(~3 ft) rise in sea

level

Miami

Source:

Corell, R. W., 2004: Impacts of a warming Arctic. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (www.acia.uaf.edu) Cambridge University Press (www.cambridge.org).

slide25

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

slide26

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

slide27

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Natural cycles

slide28

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Not Natural

slide29

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

Highly Likely Not Nartural

Not Natural

slide31

Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

Sea-surface temperature

V

V

V

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

slide32

Tropical Atlantic Ocean

Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI)

Sea-surface temperature

V

V

V

Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

slide36

The planet is committed to

a warming over the next

50 years regardless of

political decisions

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

slide37

The planet is committed to

a warming over the next

50 years regardless of

political decisions

Mitigation Possible

Adaptation Necessary

Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

projected changes for the climate of iowa midwest my tentative assessment
Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment)
  • Longer frost-free period (high)
  • Higher average winter temperatures (high)
  • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high)
  • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium)
  • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high)
  • More (~10%) precipitation (medium)
  • More variability of summer precipitation (high)
    • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high)
    • Higher episodic streamflow (medium)
    • Longer periods without rain (medium)
  • Higher absolute humidity (high)
  • Stronger storm systems (medium)
  • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium)

Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by modelsNo current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

four component approach for addressing climate change
Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change
  • Mitigation policies: 2050-2100
    • Example: reduction in GHG emissions
  • Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050
    • Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage
  • Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015
    • Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified
  • Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100
    • Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire

EST personal view

slide43

Climate Adaptation(Short-Term)

If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years.

EST personal view

climate surprises
Climate Surprises
  • Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Greenland melt water)
  • Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet
slide60

Kennedy Space

Center

Areas subjected to

Inundation with a 1 m

(~3 ft) rise in sea

level

Miami

warming hole
“Warming Hole”

˚C

DTmax (JJA)

north america regional climate change assessment program

North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Linda O. Mearns,National Center for Atmospheric Research

Principal Investigator

Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University

Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK

Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada

Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA

Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy

Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA

René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada

Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA

Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA

Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA

Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA

Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

slide64

NARCCAP Plan

A2 Emissions Scenario

HADAM3

link to EU

programs

GFDL

CCSM

CGCM3

Provide boundary conditions

2040-2070 future

1960-1990 current

RegCM3

UC Santa Cruz

ICTP

CRCM

Quebec,

Ouranos

HADRM3

Hadley Centre

WRF

NCAR/

PNNL

MM5

Iowa State/

PNNL

RSM

Scripps

Reanalyzed climate , 1979-2000

for more information
For More Information
  • For peer-reviewed evidence supporting everything you have seen in this presentation, see my online Global Change course:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/gccourse

  • Contact me directly:

gstakle@iastate.edu

  • Current research on regional climate and climate change is being conducted at Iowa State Unversity under the Regional Climate Modeling Laboratory

http://rcmlab.agron.iastate.edu/

  • North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

  • For this and other climate change presentations see my personal website:

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/faculty/takle/