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Consortium for Ocean Leadership. Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs. Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D. Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change October 15, 2009. This Presentation is Unclassified. Overview. Task Force Climate Change

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  1. Consortium for Ocean Leadership Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D.Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate ChangeOctober 15, 2009 This Presentation is Unclassified

  2. Overview Task Force Climate Change Navy Arctic Roadmap What We Know Adapting to Climate Change Science & Technology Needs Way Ahead

  3. Task Force Climate Change Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change • Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) • To identify Navy action regarding climate change • Near-term focus: Arctic • Charter • Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action • Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach • Service, interagency, & scientific community support • Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab • NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security • National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI), Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School

  4. Task Force Climate ChangeFocus Areas Readiness & Capability Operations & Training Comms & Outreach Policy, Strategy, Plans Investments Assessment & Prediction TFCC Objectives U.S. Navy Photo 5 Focus Areas Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas

  5. Navy Arctic RoadmapKey Themes Improved understanding Regarding the current & predicted environment Informed investments Providing the right capability at the right time & cost Cooperative partnerships With interagency and international stakeholders UNCLOS advocacy Providing a governance framework that supports security & stability Navy POM Increased experience Through exercises & operations U.S. Navy Photo Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic

  6. What We Know IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure & installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years • Warming Earth is causing: • Sea level rise • Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns, hydrological & ecological systems • Decreasing snow & ice extent • Climate change projections are uncertain & variable • Global temperature & precipitation patterns well-modeled to 100 yrs • Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, & ocean acidity NOT well-modeled • Climate change will impact the Navy • Infrastructure, missions, operating areas

  7. Adapting to Climate Change Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies

  8. Science & Technology Needs Increase Model Resolution • Adaptive, higher-density observation net • Regional scale spatial resolution • Decadal scale temporal resolution • Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels • Provide probability distribution functions in output • Represent variability across multiple temporal & spatial scales • Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise, water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms Address Uncertainties • Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise • Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems • Feedback processes & geo-engineering • Factors causing abrupt climate change Improve Model Physics Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs

  9. National Climate Consortium Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking • Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs • Identified by the National Academy of Science and the Office of Science & Technology Policy Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped • Multiple agencies working on the same problem • Observation systems, climate models, & decision support A way ahead • Synchronize efforts across the US agencies • Leverage prior investments of each • Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations • Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy

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