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Benefits of 0-2 hr Convective Weather Forecasts

Benefits of 0-2 hr Convective Weather Forecasts. Dr. Marilyn Wolfson Lead, AWRP Convective Weather PDT. ARTCC/TRACON Transition Airspace Management Examples of CIWS Benefits, Comparison with “Non-CIWS” Day. 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable. 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS.

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Benefits of 0-2 hr Convective Weather Forecasts

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  1. Benefits of 0-2 hr Convective Weather Forecasts Dr. Marilyn Wolfson Lead, AWRP Convective Weather PDT

  2. ARTCC/TRACON Transition Airspace ManagementExamples of CIWS Benefits, Comparison with “Non-CIWS” Day 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS • Excellent timing of East Coast arrival push • Minimal holding ahead of advancingconvection • Optimized fix balancing • ATC: “Guessing at most weather- related • decisions; without CIWS, we felt blind” • Difficulty timing cut-off for East Coast arrival • push • Arrival fix imbalances • Multiple holding stacks ahead of advancing • convection • Numerous diversions Enhanced ATC Productivity, Increased Safety, and Reduced Delay

  3. 13 May 2005 - Using CIWS

  4. ARTCC/TRACON Transition Airspace ManagementExamples of CIWS Benefits, Comparison with “Non-CIWS” Day 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS • Excellent timing of East Coast arrival push • Minimal holding ahead of advancingconvection • Optimized fix balancing • ATC: “Guessing at most weather- related • decisions; without CIWS, we felt blind” • Difficulty timing cut-off for East Coast arrival • push • Arrival fix imbalances • Multiple holding stacks ahead of advancing • convection • Numerous diversions Enhanced ATC Productivity, Increased Safety, and Reduced Delay

  5. 18 July 2005 - CIWS Unavailable

  6. 2110 2040 SW fix still open SE fix over capacity 2135 Improved Traffic Demand “Balancing” with CIWS 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable More traffic moved to SW fix (towards wx) to keep fixes balanced 2140

  7. 2130 2055 Only one arrival forced to back-side of weather No arrivals holding east of convection 2255 Timing East Coast Arrival Push 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 2130

  8. 2330 Efficiently Resuming “Back-Side” Arrival Flow 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS 2325 2220 2345

  9. Summary • Goal of Convective Weather Forecasting: • Achieving safe and efficient air traffic operations • Complexity demands coupling with automated decision support tools • Convective Weather PDT has made excellent progress • Convective initiation on fronts added in 2006 • Further refinements for general CI in 2007 • Ongoing improvements in model data use for 2-6 hr forecasts • Designing “CoSPA” Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation • 0-2 hr improved “CIWS” forecasts by 2008 • 0-4 hr forecasts by 2012

  10. Fix Balancing, Timing Arrival PushesWith and Without CIWS 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 2100 – 2300 UTC 2000 – 2230 UTC

  11. Resuming Arrival Flows As Weather PassesWith and Without CIWS 13 May 2005 – Using CIWS 18 July 2005 – CIWS Unavailable 2300 – 0000 UTC 2230 – 2330 UTC

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