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Setting the Stage: Policies and Technology Paths to a Sustainable Future. Maui County Energy Expo Terry Surles Hawaii Natural Energy Institute September 11, 2009. Basics for Sustainable, Secure Futures. Environment – land, carbon, water, air Energy - security

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Setting the stage policies and technology paths to a sustainable future

Setting the Stage: Policies and Technology Paths to a Sustainable Future

Maui County Energy Expo

Terry Surles

Hawaii Natural Energy Institute

September 11, 2009


Basics for sustainable secure futures
Basics for Sustainable, Secure Futures

  • Environment – land, carbon, water, air

  • Energy - security

  • Economics – value to consumers, return on investment

  • Equity - fairness

  • Education – technical understanding, behavior


Partnerships are critical for addressing overarching issues facing electricity systems
Partnerships Are Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Electricity Systems

Electricity System Issues

Environment Quality:

Life cycle analyses

Grid Modernization:

Renewable Technologies

Peak Demand

Global Climate Change

Energy Security:

Fuel Supplies, Critical Infrastructure Protection

Environment Quality

None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships



Partnerships and stakeholders communication and confluence of common interests leads to cooperation
Partnerships and Stakeholders – Facing Electricity SystemsCommunication and Confluence of Common Interests Leads to Cooperation

While there were can be clear areas of disagreement, a surprising amount of consensus on objectives, concerns, and desire for cooperation can be attained. This serves as a path forward to address many issues


The first elephant in the room energy security global oil consumption
The First Elephant in the Room: Energy Security - Global Oil Consumption

Growth ~ 1%/year

Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007


Setting the stage policies and technology paths to a sustainable future

Longer Term: Oil Market Tightness to Return Oil Consumption

  • Over the long term, China and India will lead not only regional, but also global oil demand growth.

7


Proven oil reserves 2006
Proven Oil Reserves (2006) Oil Consumption

BP World Energy Review, 2007



The second elephant in the room climate change it s getting worse
The Second Elephant in the Room: DirectionClimate Change - It’s Getting Worse

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

  • Annual fossil CO2 emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000-2005

  • CO2 radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least the last 200 years (since the start of the Industrial Era)


Setting the stage policies and technology paths to a sustainable future

Warmest 12 years: Direction

1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000

50 0.1280.026

100 0.0740.018

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

Period Rate

Years /decade


Setting the stage policies and technology paths to a sustainable future

A Paleoclimatic Perspective Direction

Paleoclimate data support interpretation that warmth since 1960 is unusual for the previous 1300 years.

The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 meters of sea level rise.

According to Jim Hansen, we’ve already crossed the threshold


Problem confluence global security and climate
Problem Confluence: DirectionGlobal Security and Climate

  • Significant climate change and sea level rise will lead to major population dislocations

    • Foster additional radical groups against existing nations and economies: southern Asia

  • Climate change can produce “winners” as well as “losers”

    • Northern countries may benefit: Canada, Russia

    • Temperate countries may suffer due to loss of cropland and increase of tropical diseases and exotic pests

    • Winners and losers will also be driven by water - increased storms and more persistent droughts

  • Will certainly exacerbate international tensions

    • Particular issues concerning water availability: China, Middle East


Problem confluence climate change and energy security
Problem Confluence: DirectionClimate Change and Energy Security

  • Availability and upward price pressure on oil prices - disruption of supply in Africa (terrorism) and the Gulf Coast (hurricane intensity)

  • Coal - domestic supplies and lower prices lessen security issues, but exacerbate climate issues, geologic carbon sequestration is not yet proven on a large scale

  • Nuclear – Technology benefits climate issues, but increases security issues due to concerns over proliferation risks

  • Bio-fuels - increased food/fuel competition, coupled with uncertainties related to future agricultural productivity

  • Other renewable energy resources – indigenous resources benefit security, low carbon footprint benefits the climate, but at what cost and impact to the grid, logistics issues

  • Efficiency and demand response (use of energy storage) – how much can we “squeeze out” over the next century


Carbon management and energy security a portfolio approach
Carbon Management and Energy Security: A Portfolio Approach Direction

Carbon Management

Decarbonization

CO2

Btu

Sequestration

Efficiency

CO2 atm

CO2 emitted

<

<

<

Btu

GDP

  • Regional Partnerships

  • Capture/storage

  • End-use Technologies

  • Demand response

  • Nuclear

  • Renewables


Understand and minimize lifecycle emissions
Understand and Minimize DirectionLifecycle Emissions




Linking r d and public policy to commercialization process

Basic Society

Research

&

Development

Collaborative

Technology

Development

Integration

Application

Technology

Commercialization

National Laboratories

Universities

Industry R&D

Suppliers

Vendors

End Users

Linking R&D and Public Policy to Commercialization Process

Institutional

Issues

Regulations

Incentives

Government


Some final comments
Some Final Comments Society

Couple incremental changes to transformative technologies

  • Portfolio approach allows sets of winners to “reveal themselves”

    Policy – one size does NOT fit all

  • Respect cultural, regional, and national differences

    Technologies and Current Needs – today’s presentations

    - What the utility is trying to do

    - How energy storage can provide some sets of solutions

    - Scenario and modeling analyses as decision making tools


Basics for sustainable secure futures hawaii can be a leader
Basics for Sustainable, Secure Futures: Hawaii Can be a Leader!!

  • Environment

  • Energy

  • Economics

  • Equity

  • Education