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Overview on Imported Coking Coal Security For Sustainable Growth Of Indian Steel Sector. Harsh Sachdev Managing Director, S&T Mining (A SAIL-TATA Steel JV Co.) Coal Market in India-2013, New Delhi 27 th Aug, 2013. Index. Steel – The Global Scenario & Emerging Trends
Managing Director, S&T Mining (A SAIL-TATA Steel JV Co.)
Coal Market in India-2013, New Delhi
27th Aug, 2013
Difficult global business scenario prevailing
Country ---Real GDP(2013)
Newport Mining Outlook Report 2013-14
Source :Scotia Bank
Future demand Growth Driver: Further economical development rather than recovery in developed world.
China to remain dominant steel producer & consumer
Indian steel demand to grow faster
# Source: Deutsche Research,
Total Reserves of Iron Ore: 800 Bill. T.
Slow down of global demand growth, still driven mainly by China, India and South America
Globally Coking Coal Reserve: 246 Bill.T.
Coking Coal demand to grow at ~3% per annum during current decade
Coking Coal Production to shadow Steel Growth Globally
Australia to remain a dominant exporter though there will be emergence of new sources like Mozambique …
China to overtake Japan as leading coking coal importer.
Global Coking Coal export (2008-2015F)
Global Coking Coal import (2010-2025F)
Australian Met coal export expected to grow by 11%
US to decrease by 5% y-o-y to 54 Mill. T.
Canada to increase 3% y-o-y to 31 Mill. T.
Mozambique 4-4.5 Mill.T. from Maotize mine, Vale
Mongolia not likely to grow in 2013
Source: KPMG Qtrly, March 2013
China’s import to increase by 18% in 2013 y-o-y to 58 Mill. T. – due to restocking of steel
India import to increase to 36 Mn in 2013
Imports by EU to remain flat at around 46 Mill. T.
Yr 2020: India to witness emergence of 5-6 players controlling 65~70% of total prodn
With 77 Mill. T. of Crude Steel production in 2012, India is behind China , Japan & the USA .
By 2016, India is expected to become world’s 2nd largest crude steel producer
Fast urbanisation to drive India’s steel Industry growth
Steel Export moving to China , India & South Amercia
Coking Coal Sources (2012
Increased dependency on overseas coking coal mining countries
Australia to remain a dominant coking coal exporter to India
*Indigenous coal at 17% avg ash, while imported met coal ash ~10%
2020: India is expected to import whopping 83 mill. T. of coking coal (apart from 10 mill. T. of PCI) equallingforex outgo of atleast USD14* Bill. Per year.
Total 93 Mill. T. of metallurgical coal import implies that 86 % of India’s BOF steel production to depend on imports – High risk exposure
Hot Metal/Pig Iron Production -BOF
* At USD 170/t of coking coal price; conversion 1USD = Rs 54
Some of these issues are under active consideration .
Legislation to ensure inclusive growth & welfare of local communities.
Degree of complexity of Domestic Mining to increase .
Australia and Canada are two most favourable countries for mining;
Australia more favourable: Canadian coal has cost disadvantage compared to Australia in terms of freight
Since import is an imperative a number of Indian companies have already coal assets abroad……