1 / 36

Afforestation and global climate

Afforestation and global climate. Yadvinder Malhi Environmental Change Instiuuk School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford. GPP. The Carbon Cycle of a Forest. NPP VOC. NPP leaves,flowers,fruit . R leaf. NPP wood (Branch + Stem). D Fine litterfall. R stem.

brina
Download Presentation

Afforestation and global climate

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Afforestation and global climate Yadvinder Malhi Environmental Change Instiuuk School of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford

  2. GPP The Carbon Cycle of a Forest NPP VOC NPPleaves,flowers,fruit R leaf NPPwood (Branch + Stem) DFine litterfall R stem R soil R CWD DCWD R roots NPPcoarse roots NPPfine roots DRoot R soil het Fdoc

  3. Carbon stocks in mature and converted forests (Mg C ha-1) Intact forest Converted to grassland House and Prentice 2002

  4. The global carbon cycle

  5. Foley et al (2003)

  6. Dense forest: 0.05-0.20 Pasture and croplands: 0.3-0.4 Snow albedo: 0.8

  7. Surface Albedo Evaporation Cloudiness Net Albedo Modelled effects of global deforestation on albedo Bala et al 2007, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

  8. 1800 1600 Tropical 1400 1200 Temperate 1000 800 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Time (y) CO2 emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2009) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

  9. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 5 Sink 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  10. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 fossil fuel emissions 7.7±0.5 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 5 Sink 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  11. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 fossil fuel emissions 7.7±0.5 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 5 Sink 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  12. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 fossil fuel emissions 7.7±0.5 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 atmospheric CO2 4.1±0.1 5 Sink 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  13. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 fossil fuel emissions 7.7±0.5 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 atmospheric CO2 4.1±0.1 5 Sink ocean 2.3±0.4 ocean (5 models) 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  14. 2000-2009 (PgC) 10 fossil fuel emissions 7.7±0.5 5 Source deforestation CO2 flux(PgC y-1) 1.1±0.7 atmospheric CO2 4.1±0.1 land 5 2.4 (Residual) Sink ocean 2.3±0.4 (5 models) 10 1950 2000 1900 1850 Time (y) Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  15. 1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 4.1±0.1 PgC y-1 47% 2.4 PgC y-1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components + 7.7±0.5 PgC y-1 26% 2.3±0.4 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009) Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

  16. Carbon sources and sinks over the last two centuries (Pg C)

  17. How much can afforestation contribute to climate change mitigation? Carbon and biophysical effects of an extreme afforestation scenario

  18. Carbon sources and sinks over the last two centuries (Pg C)

  19. Arora and Montenegro 2011

  20. Arora and Montenegro 2011

  21. Global average temperature rise under A2 emissions scenario

  22. Global mean: -0. 11 oC; Global land mean: -0.16 oC Arora and Montenegro 2011 Nature Geoscience

  23. Global mean: -0.04 oC; Global land mean: +0.01 oC Arora and Montenegro 2011 Nature Geoscience

  24. Global mean: -0. 16 oC; Global land mean: -0.25 oC Arora and Montenegro 2011 Nature Geoscience

  25. Climate effectiveness of afforestation per unit area

  26. 100% global afforestation of croplands

  27. 100% global afforestation of croplands

  28. 100% global afforestation of croplands

  29. But can we afford to regrow forests in a world on 9+ billion? Would afforestation compete with food supply?

  30. Many temperate regions have already been undergoing afforestation New England 1900 New England 2000

  31. Other regions lock out afforestation for cultural reasons, not resource supply ones

  32. Or for historical legacies and minority interests…

  33. In many tropical regions cultural factors also dominate over food economics

  34. Conclusions Afforestation can be a relatively low component of a climate mitigation strategy (except in regions with substantial winter snow) If appropriately done, it brings many co-benefits including biodiversity, watershed protection and soil protection. Tropical afforestation (and avoided deforestation) is particularly effective. It is possible to afforest and reforest in a food-demanding world.

More Related