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The reporting process leading to. GEO-5. @ European Regional Consultation for the 12 th Global Major Groups and Stakeholders Forum Int’l Environment House, Geneva, 27 Oct. 2010.

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The reporting process leading to


@ European Regional Consultation for the 12th Global Major Groups and Stakeholders Forum Int’l Environment House, Geneva, 27 Oct. 2010

G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T O U T L O O K - 5

global environment outlook geo
UNEP’s “flagship” reporting series of

(global) Integrated Environment Assessment

reports; both a process and product(s)

Global Environment Outlook (GEO)
why a geo 5 the mandate issue
The entire GEO series stems from the need to “keep under review the state and trends of the global (and regional) environment, and alert the global community to emerging environmental problems and threats…” (1972 UNGA resolution 2997; at GC-18 in 1995; and later the “Nairobi Declaration” of GC-19 decision 19/1, Feb. 1997).

GEO-5 was specifically mandated by UNEP GC-25 (Feb. 2009) through Decision 25/2:III (see next slide…)

Why a GEO-5? (the mandate issue)
Undertake a comprehensive, integrated and scientifically-credible fifth global environmental assessment, to support decision-making processes at all levels.

Strengthen the policy relevance of GEO-5 by including an analysis of appropriate policy options and their indicative costs and benefits, and also to inform relevant global processes and meetings where progress towards these agreed goals and targets will be discussed.

Organize a GEO-5 process in which the scope, objectives and process … are finalised and adopted at a (1st) global inter-governmental and multi-stakeholder consultation; and convene a final inter-governmental meeting to negotiate and endorse the summary for policy-makers (SPM) based on the scientific findings of the full report.

Governing Council Decision 25/2:III

To inform, as appropriate, the strategic directions of the United Nations Environment Programme.

Provide a comprehensive, scientifically-credible and policy-relevant global IEA, with increased legitimacy from the engagement of (all) relevant stakeholders.

Analyse appropriate policy options and their indicative costs and benefits, to help speed up realization of inter-nationally agreed goals and targets, including those agreed at the Millennium Summit in 2000.

Inform relevant global processes and meetings where progress towards these goals and targets are discussed.

Continue to build capacity of developing and trans’l. countries for environmental assessments.

Objectives of GEO-5

what will be different in geo 5
Explicit linkages across UNEP’s Programme of Work (e.g., with Chemicals Outlook, Training Platforms, “One UN” entry points to national support etc.).

Regionally-driven identification of priority challenges and promising policy options, along with capacity building in policy analysis.

Investigation of links between environment and the economy (including the green economy).

A “challenge scenario” articulating longer-term options for achieving goals and targets.

Indicator-based Environmental State & trends.

Outreach as part of the design from the start.

What will be different in GEO-5?
proposed contents of geo 5 i

Part I: Assessment of State & Trends of the Global (Reg’l) Environment

Internationally-agreed goals and targets

Drivers of the global environment

Followed by separate chapters on Atmosphere, Land, Water, Biodiversity and Chemicals

Challenges within the Earth System

Part II: Options for Regional Policy Action

Policies for Environmental Sustainability: a review

Regional priority goals & targets: options for Africa, Asia & Pacific, Europe, LAC, N. America, W. Asia and Polar areas.

A regional synthesis

Proposed Contents of GEO-5 (I)
proposed contents of geo 5 ii
Part III: Opportunities for a Global Response

Global responses (“lessons learned” from regional analyses)

- summary of high-potential policies;

- enabling conditions; and

- barriers to policy uptake.

Challenges and opportunities

- the desirable future; the “Challenge Scenario”;

- Moving forward on greening the economy and SCP; and the role and evolution of IEG; and

- Strengthening the global assessment process.

Proposed Contents of GEO-5 (II)
geo 5 in the assessment landscape
Linkages to internal and external processes:

National and regional Environment Outlooks / State of Environment Reports (AEO-3, DABEO, EEAoA, LAC 2010…)

Sectoral & thematic assessments (GBO-3, OECD, FRA 2010…)

International review processes (MDGs/Biodiversity Indicators...)

Data & Observing Systems (GEOSS…)

Intergovernmental Panels (IPCC; the Int’l Panel on Sustainable

Resource Management; and IPBES, Intergovernmental

Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services).

GEO-5 in the Assessment Landscape

GEO-5 Schematic Approach

Part 1. Assessing state & trends of global environment

  • Assess State & Trends of the Global Environment
  • Identify key drivers of change
  • Carry out indicator-based analysis of state & trends of global environment; progress towards meeting goals & targets;
  • Review emerging issues, potential tipping points, interlinkages, persistent environmental problems,

Review Internationally agreed Goals & Targets

(including MEAs & MDGs)

Part 2. identifying options for policy action within regions

  • Assess Options Applicable to Regions
  • Assess promising policy options within regions
  • Evaluate costs and benefits (environmental, social & economic) through multi-criteria analysis
  • Identify high potential regional policy options relevant for immediate action
  • Screen Options Applicable to Regions
  • Select subset of goals & targets (from Step 1) as priority for regional analysis
  • Survey range of policy options by sector
  • Select subset of promising policy options for further analysis

Part 3: Finding opportunities for a global response

  • The Long Term Global Challenge
  • Develop normative “Challenge” scenario that articulates longer term options for reaching goals & targets
  • Identify longer term policy responses

Conduct Global Synthesis

Identify options for global actions to enable policy responses

Two informal meetings to brainstorm interpretation of Decision 25/2:III & develop a concept for the purpose of the Intergovernmental Multi-stakeholder Consultation (Bilthoven, Nov. 2009 and Nairobi, Jan 2010).

Internal consultations within UNEP (SMT and Divisions), and informal presentation to CPR (11 March 2010).

1st Intergovernmental Multi-stakeholder Consultation for GEO-5 in Nairobi (29-31 March 2010).

Holding of six Regional Consultations; establishment of (most) Chapter Working Groups (Sept. - Oct. 2010).

Project document under Env’l. Governance, EA(d) project 1 “Global Environment Outlook (GEO-)5”.

Progress on GEO-5 to date

geo 5 process elements
GEO-5 Process Elements

Engagement of stakeholders

Nomination & selection of experts

Scientific credibility assurance

Summary for Policy-makers

Capacity development


- “hard-wired” into the GEO-5 design to reach key target audiences

- offer intermediate products and maximise GEO-5’s accessibility

Production schedule


geo 5 process elements1
GEO-5 Process Elements

At the regional level, we need to advise on or assure:

Selection of candidates for the inter-govt’l. High-level

Advisory Panel, and Science & Policy Advisory Group;

Nomination & Selection of Experts for regional multi-

stakeholder working groups for policy analyses;

Regional participation in author/chapter working groups and Data & Indicators/Scenarios Working Groups;

Involvement in Outreach throughout the process;

Capacity Development through IEA training and GEO Fellowship Programme.

geo website
GEO Website

geo 5 capacity development
GEO-5 Capacity Development

Building Assessment Expertise

Provide training in Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA)

Develop tools and methodologies to support policy analysis at the regional, sub-regional & national levels

Build capacity to utilise outcomes of assessments

Enhance institutional capacity through partnerships

Technology & Accessibility of Information

Strengthen GEO Data Portal; develop specifications for ‘UNEP Live’

Improve platforms for e-Learning and for accessing training materials

Enhance IEA Community Platform & Trainers’ Database of resources

geo 5 capacity development1
GEO-5 Capacity Development

Capacity Development Process

Networking and developing institutional partnerships

Interactive delivery through, inter alia, web-based and eLearning platforms

South-South partnerships & initiatives

Contributing to “Delivering as One UN” through UNDAFs

Who will benefit?

Developing and transitional economy countries

Regional GEO Collaborating Centres (CCs)

Young scientists (GEO Fellowship Programme)

New/additional GEO partners


GEO-5 Capacity Development

proposed geo 5 budget
Proposed GEO-5 Budget

BUDGET - USD 9’325’000 total requested for 2010-12




G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T O U T L O O K - 5