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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE: THE SOY-AMEX EXPERIMENT. Marcos Heil Costa Aristides Ribeiro DEA/UFV. IPCC scenarios. IPCC climate. downscale (or not). applications. The effects of climate change on agriculture are usually studied using the following framework:.

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effects of climate change on agriculture the soy amex experiment

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE:THE SOY-AMEXEXPERIMENT

Marcos Heil Costa

Aristides Ribeiro

DEA/UFV

the effects of climate change on agriculture are usually studied using the following framework

IPCC

scenarios

IPCC

climate

downscale

(or not)

applications

The effects of climate change on agriculture are usually studied using the following framework:
  • Applications include:
  • agroclimatic zoning
  • agricultural pests and diseases
  • crop productivity analysis
climate effects of amazon deforestation compared to effects of doubling co 2
Climate effects of Amazon deforestation compared to effects of doubling CO2

Effects of full deforestation

Effects of doubling CO2

Combined effects

-0.73

+0.28

-0.42

+1.4

+2.0

+3.5

Costa and Foley, J. Climate, 2000

Local climate effects of changes in land cover are of the same order of magnitude, or even higher, than the climate effects of rising CO2

tropical south america will be one of the main agricultural frontiers in the xxi century
Tropical South America will be one of the main agricultural frontiers in the XXI Century

Global distribution of croplands

Global distribution of pasturelands

www.sage.wisc.edu

inconsistencies arise when different land surface models are used accross the application framework

IPCC Scenarios

Coarse resolution IPCC climate

Fine resolution climate

Application x

Climate model

Land surface model 1

Regional model

Land surface model 2

Crop productivity model

Land surface model 3

Sources of inconsistencies

Inconsistencies arise when different land surface models are used accross the application framework
inconsistencies are higher when crop land cover is higher
Inconsistencies are higher when crop land cover is higher

Global distribution of croplands

Global distribution of pasturelands

www.sage.wisc.edu

possible solution for inconsistencies
Possible solution for inconsistencies:

Use the same land surface model in all three operations:

  • Climate simulation
  • Downscale
  • Crop productivity
same land surface model framework

IPCC Scenarios

Coarse resolution IPCC climate

Fine resolution climate

Application x

Climate model

Land surface model 1

Regional model

Land surface model 1

Crop productivity model

Land surface model 1

Climate model

Regional model

Crop productivity model

Land surface model

Same land surface model framework

Or:

our project at ufv

Climate model

NCAR CCM3

Regional model

RegCM3

Crop productivity model

AGRO-IBIS

Land surface model

IBIS

Our project at UFV:
our project at ufv1

NCAR CCM3

RegCM3

AGRO-IBIS

IBIS

Our project at UFV:
  • IBIS is a land surface model that simulates fluxes between the vegetation and the atmosphere.
  • AGRO-IBIS (Kucharik and Ramankutty, Earth Interactions, 2005) is a crop productivity model that uses the same GCM-grade land surface physics package of IBIS. It has been validated for corn and soybean for US conditions.
our project at ufv2
Our project at UFV:
  • To work appropriately, the model must be adequately parameterized to relevant crops

AMEX Experiments

amex agronomical and micrometeorological experiments
AMEX: Agronomical and Micrometeorological Experiments
  • Designed with the purpose of parameterizing GCM-grade crop productivity models
  • Consists of an agronomical experiment running at the same time as a micrometeorological experiment
amex agronomical and micrometeorological experiments1
AMEX: Agronomical and Micrometeorological Experiments
  • First experiment: SOY-AMEX
    • Soybeans, Paragominas, PA, Brazil
    • Experiment funded, first data collection season started in January 2006
  • Second experiment: SUG-AMEX
    • Sugar cane, Triângulo mineiro, MG, Brazil
    • Experiment funded, waiting for release of funds. Expect to set up experiment in 2007.
data collected at amex sites
Data collected at AMEX sites

Instantaneous, half-hourly or hourly measurements:

1. Precipitation

2. Air specific humidity

3. Air temperature

4. Incoming and reflected solar radiation

5. Incoming atmospheric radiation

6. Horizontal and vertical wind speed

7. Wind direction

8. Atmospheric pressure

9. Latent and sensible heat fluxes, CO2 flux

10. Soil heat flux

data collected at amex sites1
Data collected at AMEX sites

Daily measurements:

1. Soil moisture, down to 50 cm depth

2. Soil temperature, down to 50 cm depth

3. Rainfall on raingauge, to fill gaps on the hourly precipitation dataset

data collected at amex sites2
Data collected at AMEX sites

Weekly measurements:

1. LAI

2. Plant height

3. Above-ground biomass (leaves, branches, grains)

4. %C  e %N  on above ground litter

5. Soil respiration flux

6. Soil fraction covered by vegetation

Monthly measurements:

1. Specific leaf area (m2 of leaf area per kg of dry biomass or kg C).

2.  Physiological measurements 

    - carbon assimilation x light curve

    - carbon assimilation x temperature curve

    - stomatal conductance  

data collected at amex sites3
Data collected at AMEX sites

Single measurements:

1. Soil moisture retention curve – stratification by layers

2. C , N and soil bulk density as function of depth to 1 m

3. Biomass of fine roots and %C and %N on the fine roots (single sample at the end of cycle)

4. Agronomical characterization of the crop:

  • Initial fertilization
  • Frequency and level of nitrogen fertization
  • Cultivar used
  • Dates of beginning and ending of each phenological stage
first results soy amex
First results: SOY-AMEX

Silvia Yanagi, doctorate thesis

summary and conclusions
Summary and Conclusions
  • We may have better evaluations of future climate and agricultural activities if we use the same land surface model throughout the entire analysis framework of the effects of climate change on agriculture
  • At UFV, we plan to use the CCM3/RegCM3/IBIS/AGRO-IBIS suite of models to improve analyses and predictions of the effects of climate change on agriculture
  • The AMEX set of experiments is designed to correctly parametrize GCM-grade crop productivity models
  • The very first results of the parameterizations obtained by SOY-AMEX indicate important differences from previous results
  • Other groups are welcome to join this effort