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Economic Resilience and Well-being of Gulf Communities: Environmental Disaster Events and Changes in Economic Diversity PowerPoint Presentation
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Economic Resilience and Well-being of Gulf Communities: Environmental Disaster Events and Changes in Economic Diversity . Jason Chun Yu Wong University of Maryland Environmental Science and Policy – Environmental Economics Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies

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slide1

Economic Resilience and Well-being of Gulf Communities: Environmental Disaster Events and Changes in Economic Diversity

Jason Chun Yu Wong

University of Maryland

Environmental Science and Policy – Environmental Economics

Resilient Coastal Communities and Economies

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science - Hollings Marine Laboratory, Charleston, SC

Dr. Susan Lovelace, Maria Dillard

outline
Outline
  • Motivation
  • Questions
  • Methodology
  • Results & Analysis
  • Future Research
  • My Next Step
  • Acknowledgement
  • Sources
slide5

Gulf of Mexico Timeline

Hurricane Rita- $108,755 decrease in Revenue at Sea Rim State Park (Jefferson, TX)

Hurricane Dennis- $3.4b in property damages

2010

DeepwaterHorizon Oil Spill approx. 205.8 million gallons

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Hurricane Katrina- Total Resident Population declined from 455,188 on July 1, 2005 to 208,548 on July 1, 2006 in Orleans, LA

Hurricane Ivan- $6.6b in property damages (AL, FL, LA, MS)

why do we care about economic diversity
Why do we care about economic diversity?
  • Conventional wisdom: portfolio and risk diversification – shock resistance
  • Don’t put all your eggs in one basket!
research questions
Research Questions
  • Was there a significant differencein economic diversity over time, from 2003-2007, in Gulf States counties?
  • What socioeconomic factors could help explain economic diversity? Does the number of environmental disaster events affect economic diversity?
  • How could we interpret economic resilience from diversity indicators?
measuring economic diversity

MeasuringEconomicDiversity

By Employment, or Earnings

Secondary Data Needs:

U.S. Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis

slide10

Measuring Economic Diversity

National Average

  • This study uses four static measures: Ogive, National Average, Herfindahl, and Entropy/Log Share
  • T-Tests, Wilcoxon Rank Sum, Correlation and Regression Analysis

Ogive

results difference in diversity
Results: Difference in Diversity?

Distribution of by employment

wilcoxon signed rank results
Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Results

Coastal, n=139

  • Coastal counties experienced less significant changes in industrial composition compared to non-coastal counties from 2003-2007

Non-Coastal, n=441

* Pr > |S| < 0.05

results what can help explain economic diversity
Results: What can help explain economic diversity?
  • Correlation: using existing socioeconomic dataset on coastal counties, selected variables based on literature and data availability
  • Count of Environmental Disaster Events in 2005 included
  • Ran multiple regressions (standard, Max R, Stepwise); checked for multicollinearity with Variance Inflation Factor
limitations
Limitations
  • Time frame & boundary problem
  • Population may have a threshold effect
  • Factors requiring population-adjusted measures: Education, Resource availability
  • Specialization may be stable
  • Diversity measures sensitive to number of industries
economic resilience
Economic Resilience
  • Employment diversity = resilience?
  • How to measure the ability of communities “bounce back”
  • Simulation-based modeling
    • Using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
    • Hypothetical, constructed measure
  • Retrospective data analysis
    • Adapted the resilience method for ex post facto resilience analysis
conclusion
Conclusion
  • Framework for economic well-being assessment
  • Industrial composition in coastal communities is “mature” and established
  • Environmental disasters were not a strong explanatory variable for economic diversity
  • Time frame may be a significant factor that is industry-dependent
  • Future research – finance and input-output methods
my next step
My Next Step…
  • Honors Thesis – Contingent Valuation Survey – Rain Gardens
  • Germany Study Abroad – International Environmental Law
  • Interdisciplinary PhD in Environment and Resources: Environmental Economics, Sociology, Law, Policy
  • Economics of Climate Change and Valuation of the Environment; Non-Market Valuation Techniques; Survey Methodology
  • A teacher, a researcher, and a scholar in environmental economics and policy
acknowledgements
Acknowledgements
  • Susan Lovelace
  • Maria Dillard
  • Lauren Brown, C of C MES ‘12
  • Mark Plummer, NMFS, NWFSC
  • Peter Edwards, NMFS, Habitat
  • Jeffery Adkins, NOS, CSC
  • Linwood Pendleton, Acting Chief Economist
  • HML Human Dimensions Lab Members
  • HML admin and IT staff; OEd Scholarship Team
sources
Sources
  • US Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis
  • Wagner, J. E. (2000). "Regional Economic Diversity: Action, Concept, or State of Confusion." Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy 30(2): 1-22.
  • Rose, A. L., Shu-Yi (2005). "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions." Journal of Regional Science 45(1): 75-112.
  • Rose, A. (2004). "Defining and measuring economic resilience to disasters." Disaster Prevention and Management 13(4): 307-314.
  • State of Hawaii (2008). Measuring Economic Diversification In Hawaii, Research and Economic Analysis Division, Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism, State of Hawaii.
  • Manyena, S. B. (2006). "The concept of resilience revisited." Disasters 30(4): 435-450.
  • Quigley, Thomas M.; Haynes, Richard W; Graham, Russell T., tech. eds. 1996. Integrated scientific assessment for ecosystem management in the interior Columbia basin and portions of the Klamath and Great Basins. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-382. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station
e x post facto resilience indicator
ex post facto resilience indicator
  • Where psi= actual performance of industry s in region i
  • And E(psi)= expected performance of industry s in regioni.
  • For ,
  • , the event had no effect on the ability of the economy to meet its expected performance;
  • , the event reducedthe ability for the economy to meet its expected performance;
  • , the event in fact increased the ability for the economy to meet its expected performance.