Economic Outlook November 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Economic Outlook November 2010

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  1. Economic Outlook November 2010

  2. Recession Impact • Fewer Moving • Delay in Marriage • One Car • Office at Home • More Education

  3. Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?

  4. Sources of Economic Growth

  5. Inventory Buildup

  6. Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

  7. Percent of Long-term Unemployed

  8. Household Debt Is Still High

  9. Housing

  10. History of Home Prices

  11. Housing Affordability Index

  12. Home Prices

  13. Mortgage Rate

  14. Double-dip in Housing?

  15. Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

  16. Distress Distressed Home Sales

  17. Homeowner Vacancy Rate

  18. State & Local Governments

  19. State and Local Government Payroll

  20. State and Local Government Drag

  21. Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition

  22. Budget Deficits % of GDP

  23. Quantitative Easing

  24. Employment Changes During Recession-Recoveries

  25. OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap

  26. Why QE? • Short Rate Zero • Lower Bond Yields • Weaker Dollar

  27. Money to Emerg. Mkts Stocks and Bonds

  28. Currency War?

  29. Blue Chip Economic Forecasts

  30. Double-dip Yes/No ?

  31. No Double-dip? • Tax Cuts • QE2 • Low Base

  32. Inflation or Deflation

  33. Major Inflation and Deflation

  34. Lower Inflation Expectations

  35. Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy

  36. No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes Taxes Fees

  37. Election

  38. Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan

  39. 90 Days after Mid-term (1922-2006) 8.5 percent

  40. Mid-term Elections and S&P 500

  41. Key Issues Tax & Budget Energy Trade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration

  42. Compromise or Not?

  43. Video Clip

  44. Global Economy