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Research Challenges for E-commerce The Future Is Not What It Was. 1 November ICEC 2001 Vienna Stuart Feldman Director, IBM Institute for Advanced Commerce Head, Computer Science Research. Outline. Trends and Directions e-Government & e-Business e-Commerce & e-Business

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research challenges for e commerce the future is not what it was

Research Challenges for E-commerceThe Future Is Not What It Was

1 November ICEC 2001 Vienna

Stuart Feldman

Director, IBM Institute for Advanced Commerce

Head, Computer Science Research

outline
Outline
  • Trends and Directions
    • e-Government & e-Business
    • e-Commerce & e-Business
    • Dot-Bomb & reality
  • Driving Forces
    • Technology
    • Business
  • Some Research Challenges
  • Implications of September 11
overlapping topics
Overlapping Topics

www.egovlinks.com

E-government

Citizen

services

Foreign

Relations

E-governance

Infrastructure

E-Commerce

Enterprise

Resources

Employee

Services

Partner

Alliances

E-Business

CRM

SCM

trends and directions

TRENDS AND DIRECTIONS

Business, Societal

e-government, e-governance,

e-business, e-commerce

progress the long view alas
Progress – The Long View (Alas)

Industrial

Revolution

Agricultural

revolution

Hunter

Gatherers

Farmers

Villagers

Cities

Suburbs

Increased disease

Poorer nutrition Shorter life span

Harsh working

conditions

Shorter urban

life span

Information

Revolution

Sept 11 …

?

macro issues
Macro Issues
  • E-business growth continues
    • Efficiency, opportunity
  • Organizations will experiment and invest because
    • opportunities/greed
    • competition/fear
  • Implications uncertain for society, economy, workforce, community
    • big changes in industry sectors and national positions
    • realizations will come late and reactions unpredictable
  • Likely legal or political responses
    • will induce delay, cost, or circumvention
  • Hard to put the genie back in the bottle
phases of public excitement
Phases of Public Excitement
  • B2C
  • Portals
  • B2B
  • e-Marketplaces
  • e-business
  • Pervasive e-commerce
  • Service-Oriented Commerce
phases of public excitement and technical challenges
Phases of Public Excitement and Technical Challenges
  • B2C: storefront, images, payment, auction, authentication, privacy
  • Portals: content, collaboration
  • B2B: protocols, processes, robustness
  • e-Marketplaces: negotiation, services, databases
  • e-business: business processes, models, stability, inter-organizational federated computing
  • Pervasive e-commerce: scale, user experience, application and content adaptation
  • Service-Oriented Commerce: highly distributed computing, management
fundamental trends
Fundamental Trends
  • Business-to-Business far outweighs Business-to-Consumer
  • Growth continues strong in B2B activity
    • Especially in broader e-business, not just e-commerce
  • “Dot-Bomb” more of an investment disaster than a technology loss
    • Experiences and software being reused
  • Usage expanding from large enterprises in G7 to mid-sized companies in many countries
  • Governments experimenting widely with the technologies, though usage is still relatively light
phases of public excitement10
Phases of Public Excitement
  • B2C
  • Portals
  • B2B
  • e-Marketplaces
  • e-business
  • Pervasive e-commerce
  • Service-Oriented Commerce
phases of public excitement and technical challenges11
Phases of Public Excitement and Technical Challenges
  • B2C: storefront, images, payment, auction, authentication, privacy
  • Portals: content, collaboration
  • B2B: protocols, processes, robustness
  • e-Marketplaces: negotiation, services, databases
  • e-business: business processes, models, stability, inter-organizational federated computing
  • Pervasive e-commerce: scale, user experience, application and content adaptation
  • Service-Oriented Commerce: highly distributed computing, management
growth in e commerce usage
Growth in E-Commerce Usage
  • E-Commerce : CAGR = 175% over 1995-1999 (U. Texas/Cisco); $ = ey
    • Forrester (2000) estimate: $6.9T in 2004
    • Gartner (2001) estimate: $8.5T in B2B in 2005
  • Online B2B will grow from 3% to 42% by 2005 (Jupiter, 2000):
    • Over 50% in aerospace&defense, chemicals, computers&telecom, electronics&motor vehicles
  • Number of digital cell phones > number of PC-type devices by 2003
  • Exponential growth faster than h/w improvements
  • Faster than economy, society, organizations react
    • Large scale job and sector shifts: displacements, digital divides -- age, education, race, nation, continent
some inferences
Some Inferences
  • Exponential growth
    • errors not significant
    • if growth rate is 175%, just shift the time axis a little
    • what is the asymptote, where is the knee
  • Government implications
    • tax holidays won't last long
      • US just permitted nationwide moratorium lapse
    • globalization concerns will boil over
    • “ interesting" economic shifts will occur anyway
  • Social implications
    • further blending of economic, political, social spheres
    • time scale ~10 years
individuals
Individuals
  • Privacy
    • erosion of privacy,
    • new ways to hide one’s tracks
  • Socialization
    • New modes of interaction, more time on friendships
    • Lessened need for physical closeness
  • Community
    • greater dependence on virtual communities
    • new opportunities for geographic regions
business
Business
  • Business time frames
    • accelerating tempos,
    • longer-term partnerships
  • Business advantage
    • Operational efficiency and niche specialization
    • Strategy, marketing, alliances
  • Supply chains
    • widening nets of suppliers,
    • deepening strategic partnerships
economy
Economy
  • Business structure
    • fragmentation of businesses focusing on core capabilities,
    • growth of mega-corporations that increase brand and supplier power
  • Information sharing
    • Faster decision-making with better data
    • Greater synchronization and peakiness of behavior
  • Employment
    • more protection of jobs and workers, skills shortages
    • more export of entire business functions
government
Government
  • National Government
    • weakening control over national economy, challenges at the borders
    • new ways to affect/afflict other nations
  • Levels of Government
    • Increased competence and focus locally
    • Continental cooperation driven by networking
  • Citizen involvement and interaction
    • Government can seem increasing distant and venal
    • Citizens expect govt to respond on business timescales
  • National Security
    • New targets and risks
    • Greater opportunity for data gathering
  • Taxes
    • more auditable data and immediate access to cash flows
    • more ways to evade taxation
driving forces

DRIVING FORCES

Technical

Business

what does business demand
What Does Business Demand?
  • Faster
    • Faster tempo, time to market
  • Cheaper
    • More efficient processes, less waste
  • Broader
    • More global; more partners, suppliers, customers
  • Deeper
    • More process optimization, business strategy
  • Response: more dynamic e-business
    • Increased automation
    • Deeper data-driven analysis
    • Continuous interdependence of people and systems
five main technology trends
Five Main Technology Trends
  • "Faster, Cheaper, Better"
  • "Wired Planet"
  • "Power Plants"
  • "NextWeb"
  • "Deep Computing“

Source: IBM Global Technology Outlook

technology trends
Technology Trends
  • Moore’s Law (obligatory first technology bullet in IT talks)
  • Disk areal density growth
  • Bandwidth changes (backbone, org, home)
  • New displays
  • Algorithm improvements
  • Embodiment of techniques into software
  • Distribution of computing, data, applications and services
technology expectations
Technology Expectations
  • Number of network users
    • Near-universal participation
    • New expectations and uses
  • Networking
    • Far faster backbone capabilities
    • Storage demands will grow even faster
  • Security
    • People and orgs will be more conscious of security
    • Technologies will improve
    • People will still be sloppy
  • Computing capabilities
    • Typical users will do more computing than biggest ones today
    • High-end abilities will grow enormously
technology directions
Technology Directions

(M=106, G=109, T=1012, P=1015)

the role of software
The Role of Software
  • Traditional
    • structure of software is determined by structure of the organization that creates it
  • New
    • structure of the organization is determined by structure of the software that it uses
  • Newer
    • the businesses that an organization participates in are determined by the software and services it can use
difficulties of research field
Difficulties of Research Field
  • Funding (assumptions of start-up dominance, followed by dot-com collapse)
  • Time scale: traditional publishing and grant intervals (2-4 years) vs “Internet Time”
  • Interdisciplinary nature
    • Requirements for deep knowledge
  • Application focus
  • Acquiring data (laboratory and real-world)
growth of research field
Growth of Research Field
  • Becoming recognized as legitimate subject
  • Increasing number of research conferences, journals, papers
  • Degree programs
    • Several PhD
    • Many Master’s, many more specialized MBA
  • E-Business Research Centers
    • >50 in North America alone
    • IBM Institute for Advanced Commerce and Pennsylvania State University are sponsoring a forum of Directors of such centers this month
usage opportunities
Usage Opportunities
  • Electronic books
  • Networked information
  • Comfortable video conferencing
  • Improved collaborative environments
  • Simulation as preferred form of research
  • Knowledge in your pocket
  • Forget-nothing storage
  • Privacy?
institute for advanced commerce eight research themes
Institute for Advanced Commerce: Eight Research Themes
  • Evolving Marketplace
  • Privacy
  • Variable Prices and Negotiated Dealings
  • Direct Business to Business Interactions
  • Managing the End Customer
  • Impact of Globalization
  • Deep Computing for Commerce
  • System Foundations
some research challenges
Some Research Challenges
  • How to adapt to the world of mobile gadgets
  • How to provide useful natural HCI for the billions
  • How to extract business knowledge from floods of data
  • How to maintain privacy
  • How to be a dynamic e-business
  • How to optimize business plans & decisions
  • How to build applications and services that work, quickly
  • How to optimize computing in a utility world
  • How to cope with skills shortages and globalization
m business
M-Business
  • Not just commerce
  • M = Mobile + Multi-Modal + Multi-Channel
  • Challenges:
    • Ubiquity and new demographics
    • Networking quality and bandwidth unpredictable, devices of limited capability
      • Content and process Adaptation
    • People always online
      • and available for business opportunities?
    • Location sensitivity – how to use?
    • Authentication and personalization
business process adaptation change the process based on device capabilities
How would you sell 50 types of socks?

On a high-resolution screen

show them all

On a PDA:

use profile, outline best 3 choices

Over a phone

app asks questions, describes best sock

How would you auction a painting?

On a high-resolution screen

pan, zoom

beep when out-bid

On a PDA

view of signature and guarantee

flash when out-bid

Over a phone

discuss with expert

ring when out-bid

Business Process Adaptation - Change the process based on device capabilities
the challenge and opportunity of demographics
The Challenge and Opportunity of Demographics
  • Billions of users in 2010
    • Most never saw the old Web
    • Most never heard of English
    • Many are illiterate
  • Will not be techno-tolerant
    • how explain "Bus Error Core Dumped"?
  • Need multimodal interactions
    • complex user and communication models
    • application generalization
  • And lots of computing
data information knowledge understanding
Data -> Information -> Knowledge -> Understanding
  • New sources of data
    • Clickstreams
    • Surveillance cameras
    • Environmental sensors
  • Extended sources of business information
    • World Wide Web
    • Speech recognition
  • Challenges:
    • Coping with magnitudes of data
    • Extracting useful meaning
    • Reacting fast enough to change
software and system engineering
Software and System Engineering
  • Complexity is rising
  • Demands for quality of software increasing
  • Tempo accelerating, intervals shrinking
  • Challenges
    • Dynamic e-business
    • Ensuring quality, deserving trust
    • Security, availabilty, etc.
september 11 overall implications and responses
Immediate

losses of intellectual, human, and physical capital

repair, restoration, substitution

specific government needs

New risks and concerns

US especially

industrialized world overall

Fundamental shifts

policy, regulation, legal

individual expectations, fears, dependence on government,

willing exchange of liberty for security

governmental actions and needs

Priority shifts

investment priorities

national, corporate, personal

enterprise security and reliability support

distributing & replicating assets

R&D funding (defense as % of GDP, high tech vs low tech)

military/defense/applied research topics and funders

infrastructure upgrades

human and social capital

cross-training, knowledge mgmt

Technologies

security (narrowly)

physical/device level

software (OS, middleware, application)

end-to-end concerns

system-wide issues

common needs for many purposes

September 11: Overall Implications and Responses
societal effects
Socio-Political Drive&Needs

New risk sensitivity for large sudden events

Greater concern for risk abatement

Desire for autarky

Privacy concerns shift (US)

Greater sharing of info and responsibility among organizations

Demands for societal and governmental access to organization and personally identifiable information

Societal Changes & Priorities

Greater government expenditure (US especially)

Assistance to law enforcement for prevention and detection

Travel problems

More distributed IT and workforces

INFORMATION IMPLICATIONS

Information management for law enforcement and intelligence involving new orders of magnitudes of information;

Federated data bases (sharing of old and new data bases as situations demand and laws are changed)

Transaction data sharing and merging

Societal Effects
enterprise reactions
Generic

Supply chain

Risk management

Concentration reduction

Travel avoidance

Examples – Specific Industries

Energy

Distribution/Delivery

Travel

Finance

Manufacturing

Telecommunications [see also IT infrastructure

Enterprise Reactions
government individual
GOVERNMENT RESPONSES

Civilian government: organizational concerns, disaster planning

Law Enforcement: more information and authority sharing

local, national, border

Intelligence

Defense

INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION

Communications worked

Cellphones become essential

Internet increasingly important

Personal security

personal locators, emergency signals

Health information

Personal information and privacy

Government & Individual
infrastructure protection
IT INFRASTRUCTURE

Threat models

Cyber and information warfare

Information networking: hardening the net

Networks

Data

PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure Elements

Energy

Communication Networks

Travel

Risky infrastructure

General

Ingress control

Data collection

Responses

Infrastructure Protection
technology impacts and uses
Spotlighted technologies

Software, devices, operating systems, end-to-end and system-wide issues

Computer security and auditing

Privacy enabling and managing technologies

Language

Video and image analysis

Identity management

Biometrics (many)

Collaborative applications

Data-Oriented

System and service management - to the limit

Real time control

Continuous optimization

Simulation and modeling

Physical devices

Technology Impacts and Uses