The hidden secrets of E xperimental Parapsychology

1. The hiddensecrets of ExperimentalParapsychology Prof. Dr Dick J Bierman, University Groningen, Heymansgroup.nl

2. Synopsis • In this talk I will argue that the public presentation of Parapsychology, for instance in courses or talks like this one, is not reflecting what is actually known. • More specifically my argument is that the ‘secret’ features like poor replicability, declines, analyzer effects, psi experimenter effect, retro-PK etc. etc. are essential and by withholding these to the public, experimental parapsychologists have frustrated progress.

3. Public representation of experimentalresults PSI is real • Proponents as well as skeptics never tell the dirty secrets • Proponentsbecausetheydon’twant tocomplicatematters. (Ifyoucome out of this talk beingtotallyconfusedmy goal is reached ;-) • Skepticsbecausetheygenerally are notdrivenbyknowledge

4. Proponents claim or assume • Psiphenomena are part of the objective real world…..

5. ObjectiveReality Phenomenathatobserverscanindependentlyagreeupon For experimental(manipulative) sciencethis means: Phenomenathatonecanreplicate.

6. Replicability If in earlier experiments there has been a effect (E) with some normal variation (V) one can calculate the probability distribution for future experimental outcomesdepending on the number of subjects. One can also calculate the number of subjects required to get a significant result with a probability better than 1/100. An effect isreplicated if the new experimental result is not in statistical conflict with the distribution of outcomes predicted by the earlier measurement(s).

7. Is there replication? • Generally meta-analytic data are provided by proponents to claim replicability. A point in case: The Ganzfeld meta-analyses. • However we have shown that the results in these meta-analyses, under the assumption that parapsychologists are using similar research methods as psychologists, can be explained for over 50% by methodological weaknesses. Bierman, D. J., Spottiswoode, J. P., & Bijl, A. (2016). TestingforQuestionable Research Practices in a Meta-Analysis: An ExamplefromExperimentalParapsychology. PloSone, 11(5)

8. FIRST SECRET: replicability is poorerthansuggested • We will show this later more concrete withanexample of a specific type of experiment: Remote Viewing • Ifreplicability is a conditionforobjectiverealitythan we maydoubt the objectivereality of psi

9. No replicability but Elusiveness William James • All the ‘fathers’ of parapsychology have notedthat the phenomenatendto change abruptly or disappear. • An example of elusiveness: we recentlydidanindividualdifferencesstudyand found allpredictorstobereversedfromearlierexperiments.

10. Proponents claim or assume In most meta-analyses on experimentalpara-psychologylikePsychokinesisandPresentimentthe authorsclaim that the more significant results are of betterqualityexperiments.

11. SECOND SECRET: Falsequality-effect relations reported In most meta-analyses the authors claim that the more significant results are of betterqualityexperiments. Actually the non significant publicatons do REPORT lessqualitymeasuresbecausewhywouldonediscussalternativeexplanationsifthere is nothingtoexplain. It cannotbeexcludedthatif the qualityasessment is more realistic, the best qualityexperiments have less significant outcomessuggestingthatwith perfect quality no psi is tobemeasured. quality Reported True effect

12. Proponents claim or assume • Psieffectscanbemodeledbysome ‘signal’-transfer. By the spirituallyinclinedparapsychologist these ‘signals’ are labeled ‘non-local’. (Falselyborrowing a term from Quantum Physics)

13. Whythisglobal model is crazy • Psi is a signal (or information transfer) thatresults in unexplainablecorrelations. The signal is obtainedby the participant (alsocalled ‘receiver’) by filtering thatwhat is relevant for her. • BUT WHAT is beingfiltered? • Nearbyandfaraway, Past & present & future. !!!!!!!! ALL info in the cosmos.

14. A replicablesignalcanbe USED in a robust way • In precognitive RV experimenten (indirect) information aboutforinstance a roulette is provided. ClaimedEffectsize is E= 65% (MCE=50%). With the variation, V, expressed as the durationthat the effect has gonebefore re-appearing. • We have shownby computer simulationsthatwiththis E andthis V combinedwith a simple roulette bettingscheme, the probabilitytoearn a hugesum of money is largerthan 80%. Only in 5% or less of the cases one runs out of money • However the psiresearchers are alwaysaskingforoutside financial support.

15. THIRD SECRET: Psican’tbeused • It appearsthateffectsgenerallyevaporateonce the effects are beingused (forinstanceto make money) • Some of the spirituallyinclinedproponentsrespondthatpsicanonlybeusedfor the ‘good’ . In spite of reports on black magic. • But even without the explicit goal tousepsi, the resultstendtodecline (andpossiblyinclineagain). The mysteriousdecline effect.

16. Furthersecrets • ExperimenterPsieffects • Analyzer effects • Retro PK effects

17. Secret 4The results are dependent of the Experimenter • Rosenthal effect • Experimenterbringsabout the best in the participant • FamousSchlitzWisemanstudy (parallel studies) • Psi effect • The experimentercontributes as if (s)he is a participant • Millar claims thatallresults are experimentereffects

18. Secret 5The results are dependent on who is analyzing • Onceall data are acquired the process of analysis starts • Generally the Analyzer = Experimenterand is not blind • Different analyzers produce different results • Even if the data are randomly split over analyzers. • Suggestingthat Analyzer psiplays a role IN THE PAST • In the Schlitz-Wiseman experiment E = A • Refusedto split the data randomly

19. Secret 5 rephrased • Even whenthere is a manipulationafterall data are recordedand in traditional perspective the experiment is finished,psieffectsmay have a retrocausalrole. • The followingand last secret is alsointerpretable as a retrocausal effect.

20. SECRET 6: retro-PK is as good as real time PK • Psychokinesis was assessed meta-analyticallybyRadinand Nelson as objectivereality • Howeveritcouldn’tbereplicated in a large consortium effort by Princeton andGermanresearchers (as we may have expected) • PK on prerecorded targets turns out togiveat least as goodresults as real time PK suggesting the past canbechanged, • But that is tooscarytopay attention to, so retro-PK research is virtualy dead.

21. How to make sense of the secrets • Supposepsi is basically retro-causal • Soforinstance GESP is causedbyretrocausaleffects of the future feedback • Presentiment, precognitionand retro-PK are of course retrocausal • Retrocausality (or time-travel) allowsforparadoxestooccur • Dreaming of a futurefireandthenprevent it. • Ifnature wants topreventparadoxesitmay do soby making the resultsunstable, elusive, declining

22. Conclusion • Most of the Secretsmaybe a product of the fundamental time-symmetry in Nature • Byhidingsecretsthisincrediblefinding is alsohidden • Definition of objectivereality has tobeadapted • Scientificmodeling (so far ALWAYS causal) must beadjustedandpossiblyalsosome of the scientifcmethods • It is tobeexpectedthat these conclusions are difficulttoswallowby the academic community becausetheysignify a scientifcrevolutionwith far more impact thanadding a 6th sense.